This blogger is an expert on school shootings and the "copycat" effect. his name is Loren Coleman and he has dealt with the Copycat Effect through his federal government funded research work, books, and media consultations for almost three decades. He is the author, coauthor, or editor of over 25 books, one of which is the acclaimed Suicide Clusters (Faber and Faber, 1987).
Here’s what he’s saying in his latest post:
I want to share what I am seeing, what I project as forthcoming in the next month, October 2006. I’ve been saying most of this on radio interviews and in suicide trainings for weeks. No one seems to be listening, especially in the US media. Nevertheless, readers may wish to know about the patterns that are so obviously developing.
In talking about the copycat effect in media interviews, I’ve been noting a developing and coming wave of events for this autumn of 2006, due to the following facts…based on the trends and analyses I’ve written about in The Copycat Effect.
Here is what I am finding:
– most contemporary school shootings tend to occur primarily during two
periods of the school year – at the beginning (late Aug through October) and
near the the end of the academic year (March-April)…– copycats follow a regular temporal pattern that repeats – these could be
after a primary media event in a day, a week, two weeks, a month, a year, ten
years – vulnerable humans have internal media clocks…– copycats imitate the previous violent attacks, oftentimes down to specific
details as that mirror the previous specifics of the shooter, the victims, and the methods –– "celebrity" events have a far-reaching impact and modeling effect – so, of
course, Columbine serves as a dark cloud over many school shootings.One of the silliest things I have heard from cable news in the last several days during mid-September 2006, is that "these school shootings aren’t like the other school shootings." This is short-sighted, and factually untrue.
Before the current model (post-1996) in which a member of the student body would go into their own school and kill fellow students, the pattern was one of outsiders – often adults – going into schools and killing students. In my book, I discuss some of the more infamous cases (on pages 166-167, and in a long list in my appendix, following page 263).
Every year is different, and a fresh view must be considered based upon observations that are right in front of our eyes. What I do at the beginning of a new school year is to see if there is an emerging pattern that will be the re-worked "copycat" model for the new school year. To me, it was and is obvious where we were going this year.
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Expect more school shootings, unfortunately. Be alert, be prepared, be careful.