Apparently, CNN’s invitation to me got lost in the snail mail, so I’ll be liveblogging solo.
Don’t get the impression that I’m sitting here at my computer doing this all evening. It’s a long night and the results will be trickling in. So I’m doing this and other things (like reading scripts).
6:00 p.m. – Canary in the coalmines. Polls in Indiana and Kentucky close at 6pm EST.
While these states don’t necessarily contain important races, they may provide an early prediction as to whether there is a Democratic "wave" or something less.
I’m putting forward the key House races in those states — they can give us a clue about how the rest of the evening will go. If Dems win a couple of these races, then it’s probably going to be a big Dem night all across the country, because in each of these races, they are up against a Republican incumbent (incumbents are in italics).
IN-8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
IN-2, Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)
IN-9, Michael Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D)
In other words …
IF Hostettler loses BUT NOT Chocola or Sodrel, things aren’t looking as good for Dems as hoped.
IF Hostettler loses AND Chocola OR Sodrel loses, keep on your toes.
IF Hostettler loses AND Chocola AND Sodrel loses, celebrate. It’s going to be a Dem sweep.
In Kentucky, the races to watch are:
KY-3: Northrup (R) v. Yarmouth (D)
KY-4: Davis (R) v. Lucas (D)
Same situation here. If Dems take these seats, it’s going to be a baaaaad night for the GOP. Especially if Northrup loses.
7:00 p.m. – Votes close in Florida and Virginia. Virginia is a key state regarding the very tight Senate race of Allen. Results for that probably won’t be until late.
Still nothing on Indiana/Kentucky races above.
7:05 p.m. – Virginia supports ban against gay marriage. Guess Virginia is only for straight lovers.
Early returns for key Indiana races show Dem lead, i.e., IN-8, John Hostettler (R) [30%] vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) [70%] with 13% reporting
8:00 p.m. – Nothing yet with heavily contested seats, but the Indiana "canary" races look good for Dems:
IN-8, John Hostettler (R) [38%] vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) [62%] with 32% reporting
IN-2, Chris Chocola (R) [41%] vs. Joe Donnelly (D) [59%] with 26% reporting
IN-9, Michael Sodrel (R) [48%] vs. Baron Hill (D) [48%] with 23% reporting
Virginia Senate is nailbiter:
Allen (R) [49%] v. Webb (D) [50%] with 24% reporting
and, although it was expected, Katherine Harris loses her Senate bid in Florida. Heh.
So the Senate looks like this….
| PARTY | NOT UP | TOTAL | GAIN/LOSS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
40 seats | 42 | 0 | ||
|
27 seats | 30 | 0 | ||
|
0 seats | 1 | 0 |
and the House looks like this:
| PARTY | TOTAL | GAIN/LOSS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11 | 0 | ||
|
27 | 1 | ||
|
0 | -1 |
8:18 p.m. Hostettler (R) in Indiana loses. The seat changes party control in the first close "key race". So far, so good.
Also, Massachusetts overthrew its Republican governor for a Democratic one.
8:30 p.m. 1,000,000 votes counted in VA Senate race; Allan ahead by 200. That’s right, 200. Told you it would be close.
8:37 p.m. New Jersey Senate race: Dem. Menendez retains his seat. This was one of the "key races", but the result is not terribly surprising. One thing is for sure: it’s not a Republican wave.
8:53 p.m. Dem Brown beats incumbent GOP Cherrod in Ohio Senate race. That’s the first Senate pickup for Dems. Again, somewhat expected, but it’s still good.
9:02 p.m. Dem Casey beats incumbent sleazebag uber-conservative GOP Santorum in Pennsylvania. That’s another Senate pickup for Dems. Dems need to pick up six to take a majority (and not lose any they already have).
9:11 p.m. Foxx (R) beats Sharpe (D) in my congressional district. Liebermann beats Lamont, too. Ugh on both counts.
9:24 p.m. Yarmouth (D) beats incumbent Northrup (R) , in Kentucky, for a third Dem pickup in the House. One of the "canary in the cave" races I highlighted up top.
9:30 p.m. For what it’s worth, exit polling (which has had questionable reliability in the past few elections) look good for Senate:
Democrats leading:
Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)
Republicans leading:
Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)
9:31 p.m. A few days ago, I was a little worried about Rhose Island. I didn’t need to. The Dem Whitehouse stole it from incumbent GOP Chaffee. That’s THREE of the SIX needed for Dems to take Senate control. Sadly, the next three are going to be harder to come by.
9:36 p.m. The second of the three Indiana "canary" races has gone Democrat (see above): Donnelly beats Chicoola.
9:54 p.m. Virginia Senate, from the official Virginia Election website:
| Candidates | Party | Vote Totals | Percentage |
| |
Republican | 973,322 | 49.48% |
| |
Democratic | 969,980 | 49.31% |
| |
Independent Green | 21,839 | 1.11% |
| |
1,855 | 0.09% | |
| View Results by District Locality | Total: 1,966,996 | ||
Now that’s close.
10:22 p.m. Hodes (D) beats Bass (R) in NH, making a fifth House pickup for Dems.
10:35 p.m. Dems have picked up six eight of a needed 15 seats for the House, and 3 of a needed 6 seats for the Senate.
10:45 p.m. The first Muslim in America’s history has been elected to Congress.
11:00 p.m. With more polls closing this hour, NBC is projecting a Democratic takeover of the House. Again, this is not really surprising. I said Dems would take 24 seats (out of a needed 15); NBC is projecting 29. So, there it is.
All that matters now is the Senate. And Dems need to win 3 out of these four: TN, VA, MO, and MT.
Tennessee looks bad, as I thought it would.
The squeaker is still Virginia. Here’s what it looks like with %95.83 of precincts reporting:
| Registered Voters: 4,555,683 Total Voting: 2,212,075 Voter Turnout: 48.56 % | |||
| Candidates | Party | Vote Totals | Percentage |
| |
Republican | 1,098,659 | 49.67% |
| |
Democratic | 1,086,778 | 49.13% |
| |
Independent Green | 24,441 | 1.10% |
| |
2,197 | 0.10% | |
| View Results by District Locality | Total: 2,212,075 | ||
11:28 p.m. I’m pleased to see that NH dumped its two GOP Congressmen and replaced them with two Democratic Congressmen (while keeping its Democratic governor). Also glad to see corrupt Charles Taylor go down here in NC.
11:40 p.m. Looks like I’ll have to wait until morning…..