Latest Fox Poll Must Be Giving The GOP Establishment Headaches

Ken AshfordElection 2016Leave a Comment

Stat geek Nate Silver had an excellent piece the other day explaining why the polls today are to be taken with a grain of salt.  In a nutshell, he writes, they are not good predictors of who the nominee will actually be, for many reasons:

  • They contemplate a vote today, but we’re currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.
  • They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.
  • They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.
  • They contemplate a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.
  • They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.

And that makes a lot of sense.  It’s also supported by historical evidence.  Going back at least 5 elections cycles, whoever has been leading for the non-incumbent party at this point in the process did not end of as the nominee of that party (e.g., Richard Gephart, Michelle Bachmann, etc.).

However, check out the results of the lastest Fox News poll:

Haperin notes that the anti-establishment vote is 52%, compared to 23% for “establishment” votes.  That says something, and you know that the GOP establishment (and the Bush camp) is concerned.

Now, I maintain that Trump will not be the nominee, nor Cruz, Carson, or Fiorina.  But this poll suggests that the anti-establishment sentiment is strong and pervasive, such that they may not turn out to vote in the general election if the nominee is establishment.  This all bodes well for Clinton.

Since I’m talking GOP nominees, I’ll take a dip in the Trump crazy well, which I have been avoiding lately for my sanity.  Let’s see:

(1)  Trump came out with an actual policy proposal regarding immigration.  Essentially, he wants to end birthright citizenship (i.e., if you are physically born within the US borders, you are an American citizen).  Ending birthright citizenship is basically what the Supreme Court advocated in the Dred Scott decision and which the 14th Amendment overruled.  Oh, and he’s going to make Mexico pay for the wall by threatening them with economic sanctions which will costs Mexico far less than the wall.  And also, mass deportation, although he won’t say how he’ll pay for it.  And my favorite, he will pass a law forcing businesses to “hire Americans first”.  And bake cakes for gays?  No.

(2)  Speaking of Trump’s immigration policy, it was the thing behind the world’s greatest unintentionally funny wingnut tweet:

(3)  Now that we’ve removed Saddam and made Iraq into an ally, Trump would take over Iraq’s oil fields (because that’s what friends so).  And he would give the revenue from those oil fields to wounded veterans.  Seriously.  It’s sort of…. institutionalized pillaging, I guess.

(4)  Trump has jury duty today.  The media is going insane.

(5)  An old Trump quote resurfaced and is quietly making the rounds: “I have black guys counting my money. … I hate it. The only guys I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes all day.” – Donald Trump, 1991. Here are 46 other Trump-isms, via Politico.