GOP Debate #2 Thoughts

Ken AshfordElection 2016, RepublicansLeave a Comment

The second round of GOP debates are this evening.

In related news, Facebook is coming out soon with a “dislike” button (bit not soon enough).

Here are some random notes and thoughts:

  1.  The candidates in the junior varsity debate are Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum and George Pataki.  That starts at 6 pm.  No news will come out of it.
  2.  The candidates in the varsity debate are Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie and John Kasich.
  3. The moderators are Jake Tapper of CNN and radio talk guy Hugh Hewitt.  Hewitt is known for “tough questions” requiring some knowledge (what many in the GOP call “gotcha questions”), but I predict he will tone it down tonight.
  4. The debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Library in a room with a retired Air Force One plane in the background.  This will NOT be a stadium-sized audience like last time.  Maybe only 500 to 600 people.  So expect something less… uh… rowdy.
  5. Trump will be Trump.  Loud, obnoxious, and bombastic.  It will not go as well as the first debate for him, because of the small room.  Without a cheering mob, his dickishness will shine through more.  Don’t get me wrong: he will still be on top after the debate.  But he won’t “win” it.
  6. Carson will stay about the same too.
  7. There will be comparisons to Reagan since they are at the Reagan Library.  Someone will point out that Trump actually gave to the Carter campaign in 1980.
  8. The winner of the debate will be the one who “breaks through”.  That will probably be Carly Fiorina or perhaps John Kasich.
  9. I still maintain that Trump will never ever ever be the GOP nominee.  Many pundits on the left have said that, but now they are getting wobbly knees and saying, “Well, he keeps on defying the odds.  Everytime we say he has peaked, he goes higher.”  True, but that is because nobody has dropped out yet (except Perry, and he was only at 3%).  Once the crowd of candidates winnows, others will come up to meet Trump.  Carson and Fiorina, I expect.  In any event, the longer Trump stays up there, that is good news for Democrats.  Hell, if he is the nominee, that is the BEST news for Democrats.  So…. go TRUMP!!!
  10. So basically, tonight’s debate is about who gets winnowed out prior to Iowa.  Could be a couple of these people.