The presentation is an 11th-hour rebuttal to the fatalism permeating the Republican establishment: Slide by slide, state by state, it calculates how Donald Trump could be denied the presidential nomination.
Marco Rubio wins Florida. John Kasich wins Ohio. Ted Cruz notches victories in the Midwest and Mountain West. And the results in California and other states are jumbled enough to leave Trump three dozen delegates short of the 1,237 required — forcing a contested convention in Cleveland in July.
The slide show, shared with The Washington Post by two operatives advising one of a handful of anti-Trump super PACs, encapsulates the newly emboldened view of many GOP leaders and donors. They see a clearer path to stopping Trump since his two losses and two narrower-than-expected wins in Saturday’s contests.
And then unicorns hand out candy.
Look, is this possible? Sure. It is possible that Trump will fall short of the 1,237 delegates required at the convention.
What happens then? The rules say they re-vote until someone gets a majority, i.e., 1,237 delegates. And in theory, that someone could be someone other than Trump, assuming that the non-Trumps form an alliance.
But think about that — this means that the one coming into the convention with a majority does not win. Will Trump supporters stand for that? Will Trump stand for that?
On the other hand, the rules are the rules. One could argue that the majority of delegates at the convention don’t want Trump, and doesn’t that account for something?
Either way, a contested convention in Cleveland means a weakened GOP candidate (if not a third party candidate or write-in movement). Some say you really can’t take it away from Trump if he has, say, 48 percent of the delegates going in. But if you can get him down to 40 percent, then maybe it isn’t so harsh.
This would be easier, of course, if either Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich dropped out. Cruz has the best argument NOT to drop out — he’s second in delegate count and has won more states. CNN has reported that some of Rubio’s advisors are advising Rubio to drop out before Florida, rather than suffer the humiliation of losing in his home state. I don[t think Rubio will do that, but maybe if he gets trounced today….
Then there’s the Rule 40 issue. Rule No. 40 of The Rules Of The Republican Party provides, in relevant part:
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
What if no candidate gained the majority of delegates from enough states? Remember, when there are many candidates, candidates often “win” states with 30-35% of the popular vote, and receive a commensurate, non-majority number of delegates. In that case, no candidate wins a majority of the delegates in that state.
If several candidates stay in the race throughout, they could each “win” states and none of the candidates reach the Rule 40(b) threshold. Hence, no candidate’s name could be placed in nomination. Whoever drafted this obviously didn’t think of a worst case scenario.
But maybe that’s further down the road. You’tt be hearing more and more about 40(b) soon in the media — trust me.
We will have a better read in ALL this in eight days when Florida and Ohio vote. And a hint of it today, as Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi go to the polls. None of these states are winner-take-all. It’s 150 delegates at stake. That’s not a lot of delegates numerically, but it is a bellweather of things to come.
The thing to look for today is whether or not Trump is fading. He had a rough week. He faced attacks from the party establishment and criticism for his debate performance on Thursday before barely outpacing Senator Ted Cruz of Texas on Saturday in Kentucky and Louisiana, and losing to him in Kansas and Maine, where Trump was considered a favorite. There are absolute killer ads like these:
I have no idea about the outcome today. I suspect Trump will do well in all these states (there is one poll that has Kasich ahead in Michigan, but I am guessing it is an outlier), possibly winning them all. But by how much? If he “wins” with only 40 percent of the votes cast, that bodes well for those who want a contested convention. If he wins with 48 or above, I think that means the attacks on him are not effective, and it will be nominee Trump.
I should add that the very smart Cook Political Report thinks a contested GOP convention is “very strong”:
What is the basis for this analysis? First is that as of today only 906 (or 37%) of the 2,472 delegates to the Republican convention have been selected. Of these, Trump has won 391 according to the Cook Political Report’s Republican Delegate Scorecard. That’s strong progress toward the 1,237 required for nomination but he’s isn’t there yet.
Second, some share of the delegates Trump has won (and will win) are state Republican regulars who are pledged by party rules to vote for the winner of their state’s contest on the first ballot, but are not Trump supporters. These include (but are not limited to) many of the 168 delegates who receive their seats automatically (three from each state and territory: the two RNC members plus the state party chair).
Inflated by the votes of these conscript supporters, this official argued, Trump’s vote tally will be at its peak on the first ballot. The second ballot, if it comes to that, will reveal the various candidates’ true support. At that point, the dealing will intensify and all bets will be off.
Third, the 112 delegates from three states (Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota) and two territories (Guam and Virgin Islands) will go to the convention officially uncommitted. These delegates are by definition up for grabs even on the first ballot.
Fourth, although states holding primaries or caucuses on or after March 15 are free to hold statewide winner-take-all events, some have chosen not to. This list includes New York, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania. In these states, Trump’s typical 35-40% showing probably won’t win him a majority of delegates.
Finally, Trump may be vulnerable to convention challenges on delegate credentials (unlikely), on the party platform (“Who knows what Trump will want in the platform?” says the RNC official. “He has no discernible political philosophy.”), or on convention rules (highly likely). To bring a challenge to the convention floor in the form of a minority report on any of these matters requires the support of just 25 percent of the members of the relevant committee on the subject.
On the Democratic side, only Michigan and Mississippi have primaries today. Mississippi is going to be a clear Clinton victory. Sanders needs to do well in Michigan to mount a comeback. It is an ideal Sanders state — Sanders’ campaign message about “unfair” trade agreements, income inequality and a “rigged economy” should resonate. They had a nationally televised debate from Flint Michigan, and I think Clinton did very well. The latest polling says Clinton by 20 or so — and while I think that is too optimistic for Clinton, I think she will win in the double digits.