Very very very much not.
In mid-May, Trump was underwater by barely more than 20 points—a disaster for most politicians, but an improvement for Trump. Now the percent of people with unfavorable views of Trump is on the rise again, and by a lot, if a new Washington Post/ABC News poll is a harbinger: It finds that “70 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, including a 56 percent majority who feel this way ’strongly.’” Perhaps most significantly, he’s suffering with groups that were supposed to help him:
Trump’s net favorable rating (favorable minus unfavorable) among non-college whites has flipped from a plus-14 in May to slightly negative minus-7 in the latest survey. Among independents, Trump’s net rating has shifted from from -19 last month to -38 in the latest survey, returning him to roughly the same standing as in April (-37).
The poll was conducted as the controversy over Trump’s attacks on Judge Gonzalo Curiel erupted, but before the Orlando mass shooting. So as more polls come out, we’ll see if Politico’s right that Orlando is Trump’s “terrain” and will strengthen his hand.
In the meantime, he is underwater with every demographic. Even white men.
Hillary Clinton also had more negative impressions among the public than positive ones, but her problems pale in comparison with Trump’s, the survey indicates.
Among all American adults surveyed, 55 percent had a negative view of Clinton, and 43 percent viewed her positively. Only 29 percent of adults had a positive view of Trump.
UPDATE: An entirely different poll shows something even more remarkable. Trump is so unpopular that he is actually suppressing the GOP vote.
According to Marquette’s latest polling out of Wisconsin, they have Hillary Clinton leading +7 among registered voters, but +9 among likely voters. They also have Russ Feingold leading the Senate race +4 among registered voters, but +9 again among likely voters.
Both Clinton and Feingold will win Wisconsin in November, but what’s interesting here isn’t that they’re winning a state they’re supposed to win but rather the gap between the registered and likely voter screens. In short, Democrats always do better among registered voters. The likely voter screen always looks better for Republicans. Always.
Until now. Now “likely voters” looks better for Democrats. Yes, if anyone could defy the laws of physics, it would be Donald Trump. He’s doing what no Republican before him has managed—suppress his own vote.