If you look at all the statistical prognosticators, this election (as of today) is Hillary’s to lose.

Nate Silver’s 538 forecast is the most cautious, placing HRC’s chances at 77%.  But it’s a 77% and rising…

And here’s 538’s electoral map as of today…

I’m actually not as bearish on Ohio as 538 seems to be — I might even put that in the Trump column.  Also, it is interesting that Colorado is a “tipping point” state.  Never expected that.

All this is from the fallout of the first debate.  It just seems that whenever the nation tunes in for these big events (the conventions, the debates), Trump plummets. People like me who follow politics have forgotten how grating he is — we’re used to it by now, but a lot of non-political voters, they might be experiencing Trump full-on for the first time.

The Veep debate earlier this week does not appear to have moved the needle at all.

The upcoming debate on Sunday October 9 is town-hall style.  A moderator is there, but the questions come from a small crowd of 100 or so.  A chance for the candidates to relate to real people face-to-face one-on-one.  For Trump, it may be his first time – in his life – relating to real people who make under $100,000.  Can he do it?  Obviously, the format benefits Clinton, but again, the bar is so much lower for Trump that he might “win” the debate just by NOT insulting someone.

Still, things are looking good for the Dem nominee.

AND… bonus… for the Senate.  From 538 again:

Definite whoop.