Have I Underestimated Trump?

Ken AshfordElection 2016Leave a Comment

I’ve written a little about The Donald’s antics, but not as much as others.  And that’s mainly because I have a very strong belief that his ride at the top of the polls is an aberration.  I remember in the 2012 election when every GOP candidate was, at some point, at the top of the polls.  During the Iowa caucus, it was Michele Bachmann, who turned to nobody’s surprise to be a huge washout.

I’m a little surprised, however, at how much airplay Trump is getting over MSNBC, CNN, and Fox.  And they often bring on very serious political analysts who say that Trump really is a factor.

Yes, Donald Trump is excelling. Thanks to his celebrity, a few epic flip-flops, and his willingness to pander to the most xenophobic element of the GOP’s base, the real-estate developer and reality-TV star is polling great.  But will he win the nomination?  No.

Being on top in a field of 17 (or so) is nice, but he’s not over 20% in any poll.  And I would suggest that the other 80% of likely voters in the GOP race are pretty rabid anti-trump.  He certainly won’t win the general with his views.  And he won’t win the GOP.  But he will get a lot of cameras turned toward him.  And the longer he does he will tarnish the GOP brand.

His popularity is so high, I propose, for two reasons: (1) his xenophobia (a polite way to say “racism”) appeals to the racist, er, xenophobic wing of the GOP; and (2) his combativeness with the mainstream media appeals to a broader cadre of conservatives.  But he’s got the support of Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin, and that means he is not going to go away as fast as, say, 2012 Michele Bachmann,

This, in case anyone has any doubt, is GOOD news for the Democrats.  Trump is a gift to Hillary, especially when it comes to the Latino vote. And rather than douse the flames of anti-Mexicam rhetoric, he pours gas on it.  Just take the past 24 hours, following the escape of Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who escaped from prison again this weekend on motorbike through a tunnel dug to his shower stall.

And so there it is.

Yes, Trump gets ratingm but it’s a loooong election season.  I think the media enjoys raising Trump up (and speculating that he’ll run as a third party candidate because of his ego) for the simple reason that it doesn’t MATTER right now.  Iowa doesn’t matter.  New Hampshire matters only a bit more.  Love him, or love to hate him… we might as enjoy Trump while he is around… because I maintain that he won’t be around much after South Carolina.