Technical winners in that they got the most votes/delegates: Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton, although the latter is so razor-thin and close that it might turn out to have been Bernie Sanders (in 2012, it turned out that Santorum won over Romney, except that wasn’t known for several weeks and everyone assumed that Romney).
Winners and losers in the sense that they exceeded, or failed to meet, expectations: Marco Rubio “won” for Republicans by coming in a very close third, almost beating Trump. Trump “lost” in that he absolutely insisted he would win and he really really didn’t. On the Democratic side, Sanders “won” in the sense that he really did almost win, and that gives him momentum into New Hampshire (where he is expected to trounce.
Say “goodbye” to: Martin O’Malley, Mike Huckabee
Other: MSNBC has some exit polling which tells us several things which we already knew, and some we didn’t:
- Sanders supporters are young and unmarried and don’t necessarily identify as Democrat, but are very liberal; the generational enthusiasm gap for Hillary is profound — 84% of those under 30 supported Sanders, as did 60% of those between 30 and 44. That’s even true for women.
- Cruz was favored over Trump and Rubio by all age groups, but not by much in any of them
- Higher-educated Iowans (college grad or more) favored Rubio then Cruz then Trump
- Cruz won white evangelicals by a lot, while Trump and Rubio basically tied for second.
- Trump won among people who thought immigration was the biggest problem, Rubio won among people who thought the economy and jobs was the biggest problem, and Cruz won among people who thought government spending and terrorism were the biggest problems
- For those who made their decision within the past week, Rubio won. For those who made their mind up more than a month ago, Trump won. This suggests that Trump’s decision to skip the debate hurt him, since he only got 15% of those who made up their mind this past week (compared to Rubio’s 28%)
The pulls in the Republican party seem to have to do with conservative ideology. Look how “very conservatives” voted re: Cruz, Trump and Rubio compared to “conservatives” and “moderates”:
It is pretty hard to untangle that one.
UPDATE: Poor Jeb Bush spent $14.1 million on ads in Iowa and came in 6th place (with 2.8% of the vote). That means he spent $2,800 per vote. That’s about 18 times as much money as first-place winner Ted Cruz spent for each vote he received. It’s also 34 times as much as silver medalist Donald Trump spent, and 10 times the amount spent by third-place winner Marco Rubio.
Ouch.