Election 2008 Analysis: Michigan

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Well, Romney won, as many Democrats had hoped.  Dems hoped for a Romney win, because they would rather face Romney in the general, as opposed to McCain.  (The "best of all worlds" Republican nominee would be Huckabee, but that ain’t gonna happen).

The Romney win means that the Republicans will continue in a clusterfuck kind of fashion.  Thompson is far from out (he’s polling great in South Carolina) and could surge at any moment.  Rudy really is dead, but doesn’t know it, and is bound to do well (if not win, although I doubt it) in Florida.

Sadly, there’s still a three-way clusterfuck on the Democratic side.  Today’s news shows that Obama and Clinton are tied nationally, according to the latest Zogby poll.  That’s huge news because, despite being close in the recent primary and caucus states, Clinton has always enjoyed a 10 point or greater advantage nationally.

There was a Democratic debate last night In Nevada.  Sadly, I missed it, but from what I understood, Clinton did well.  Maybe not a blowout (and of course, people see into the "winners" what they want to see), but she didn’t implode. [UPDATE:  Yglesus summarizes: "I suppose the trouble with this debate is that while it was very annoying when the moderates were focused on inane trivia, once they moved to substance it turned out that the candidates don’t really have large disagreements on the issues."]

I think the pack — in both parties — is going to stay the same until Super Duper Tuesday, when 22 states (including New York and California) have their primaries on the same day.  That’s February 5, I believe, which, in politics, is an eternity.