The Last Super Tuesday 2016

Ken AshfordElection 2016Leave a Comment

That’s an anti-Trump ad that, in any other year, would kill the candidate it targets.  Just thought I would throw it out there.

So here we are.  Another Super Tuesday.  Important on the Dem side if only because it should put away Bernie (or conversely, propel him as a viable alternative).  694 Democratic delegates up for grabs in New Jersey, California, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and South Dakota.  The Associated Press and other news organizations determined yesterday that Hillary Clinton already had the required pledged delegates — as well as superdelegates — to become the presumptive Dem nominee.

“Presumptive”.  A lot of people apparently don’t know what that word means.

So today remains important, and one hopes it marks the end of the primary season and Bernie can begin the process of uniting behind Hillary. Becoming the presumptive nominee opens the gates to overt help from Obama: The White House said Monday that he’s expected to endorse his former secretary of state in coming days and to join her soon at a joint appearance.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to rage against Judge Curiel and all the Republicans who endorsed Trump these past few weeks, including Paul Ryan, look like idiots.

Republicans who endorsed him assumed that Trump would pivot, moderate his temperament, and unify the party.  Instead, he goes full racist.  So now, Republican lawmakers seem to be caught in an awkward dance– clinging to their endorsements on one hand all the while criticizing their nominee. [UPDATE:  Not Senator Mark Kirk (R) of Ohio, who un-endorsed Trump today, saying in a press statement, “After much consideration, I have concluded that Donald Trump has not demonstrated the temperament necessary to assume the greatest office in the world.”]

What’s notable isn’t just the racism, but the issue that it is predicated on.  It is not on an issue of national interest, but of interest to him only — the judge in the Trump University lawsuit.

Since this was ostensibly a law blog at one point, I should say this about the Trump U case and Judge Curiel: Trump is full of shit.  I have reviewed the filings in the Trump U case. On the issues where Judge Curiel had discretion, he generally ruled against the plaintiffs and in favor of Trump.  On the issues where Judge Curiel had to rule on disputed legal concepts, he generally ruled against the plaintiffs and in favor of Trump.  Yes, Trump lost on summary judgment, but that’s not a surprise.  You don’t get summary judgment unless your opponents literally have no credible evidence on their side.  Literally no evidence.  Because to deny someone a trial runs against the Constitution, so you would do it only in the most extreme cases. Like if I sued Obama for stubbing my toe in the living room yesterday, I would lose on summary judgment.  That’s how high the bar is.

But if plaintiffs have even a small amount of evidence, then you let a jury decide. Obviously Trump’s victims do have some evidence, so summary judgment was never really a possibility.

Anyway, the Trump insanity is only going to get worse for Republicans.  Part of me has a concern that Trump knows what he is doing, i.e., that he has his finger on the pulse of something that nobody else knows about.  But how can that be?  His campaign operation is rail thin.  It’s not like he has pollsters and focus groups and data that say, “Being a white nationalist will get you to the White House”.  He’s going on his instinct.

And why shouldn’t he? From Trump’s point of view, Republican strategists are losers, because he beat them all. So now Trump is supposed to start listening to them? Not likely. Why change an approach that has taken Trump this far?

So we can conclude that there is no better Trump behind the curtain waiting to be unveiled sometime. He’s not going to get more sensible or more constructive with his words. This is who he is. He has the impulse control of a toddler. And there’s no reason to think “oh, by November he’ll pull his act together” he’ll stop making controversial statements.  This is the Trump brand: white nationalism!

Since we’re at this pivotal point in the 2016 Presidential Election, let’s take a look at how we got here, with Sam Bee:

Conservatives are in disarray.  Not even behind-the-scenes disarray.  They don’t know how to win this, or even if they want to.  I’ll leave with a quote from Media MattersWhat good is having a right-wing echo chamber if it’s not cranked up and blaring out a disciplined message during the presidential campaign?