Below is a repost of my Oscar predictions (posted here earlier on January 23).
One month later, I stand by all of them, except maybe "Children of Men" for Best Adapted Screenplay (it’ll probably be "The Departed"). I still realize that Eddie Murphy is the odds-on favorite for Best Supporting, but I’m still liking Arkin.
But even though I predicted an Oscar nod for Ms. Hudson, let me explain why she shouldn’t win. It’s quite simple — she wasn’t that good.
I know this amounts to heresy to some, but I said the same thing about Crash, the movie people loooooved because it used the awesomely innovative! fiendishly clever! never-before-done! story-telling technique of having several intertwining vignettes, and its compelling! earth-shattering! message that, yes, some people are racist.
Well, it’s a year later, and can you even remember most of the movie, save perhaps a scene where Matt Dillon gropes/saves Thandie Newton? I suspect not.
Don’t get me wrong — I liked Crash. I just didn’t think it deserved Best Picture. Same with Ms. Hudson’s performance in Dreamgirls. Yes, she sang "that song" well, and she showed adequate emotion when she sang it. Emphasize "adequate". The original, Jennifer Holiday, did it much better — both from a singing and emotional standpoint — and without heavy editing. [SIDENOTE: Ms. Holiday, who has to be, like 60 now, is reprising her Dreamgirls role as Effie next month in Georgia for the National Black Theater Festival. Ten bucks says she can still out-perform Hudson in that role].
By contrast, Ms. Hudson’s three-minute American-Idol-like performance is not the stuff for which Oscars are given. And she was barely there throughout the rest of the movie. Yes, she furrowed her brown brow and pigeon-strutted her neck when she was required to be angry, but I didn’t believer believe her. And she moped good, too. But there wasn’t much depth to what she did, ever. And frankly, I think Best Supporting Actress nominee Abigail Benson (the little girl in Little Miss Sunshine) showed more emotional range and believability.
So yes. I admit there is a certain pleasure in giving an Oscar to a virtual unknown — an American Idol finalist making her big screen debut. It’s a Cinderella story, and that makes it a crowdpleaser. But Cinderella at least earned her spot at the prince’s side. Hudson’s performance, while good, simply wasn’t enough to merit the statuette. And in time, you’ll agree with me.
Okay. Sorry to pee in the Oscar pool, but it just had to be said.
And now my Oscar predictions……(again)
My predicted winners are in red:
1. Best Picture: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."
Comments: The surprise here is, of course, the failure of "Dreamgirls" to be nominated. It was a movie that many expected to not only be nominated, but to win. With "Dreamgirls" out of the mix, it is an open question. LMS is too light and fluffy for an Oscar, and Queen is too, well, British. "Letters From Iwo Jima" has an outstanding chance, not only because it is a well-done film, but it stands beside Eastwood’s other Iwo Jima epic of this year "Flags Of Our Fathers". Still, I think it’s going to Scorsese. (P.S. Kudos for not nominating "Borat")
2. Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"; Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"; Peter O’Toole, "Venus"; Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Comments: Whitaker won the Golden Globe and the Academy likes him. DiCaprio has a good chance (especially since he wasn’t nominated for best supporting for his role in "The Departed"), and Peter O’Toole is a sentimental favorite, since it looks like he might not be with us much longer. Still, I give Whitaker the slight edge.
3. Actress: Penelope Cruz, "Volver"; Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"; Helen Mirren, "The Queen" ; Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet, "Little Children."
Comments: Personally, I would love to see Meryl win another Oscar, and she did take the Golden Globe. But Mirren’s performance was, according to the buzz, outstanding. Meryl will be nipping at her heels, and don’t be surprised by an "upset" from Penelope Cruz.
4. Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine" ; Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"; Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"; Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."
Comments: A lot of people are saying it’s Eddie Murphy, and I certainly was pleasantly surprised by his performance in "Dreamgirls", and pleased with his Golden Globe win. Still, I have this feeling about Arkin — a consistently good actor who has yet to be recognized.
5. Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza, "Babel"; Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"; Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."
Comments: The only sure thing in the top categories — Jennifer Hudson.
6. Directing: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"; Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"; Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima"; Stephen Frears, "The Queen"; Paul Greengrass, "United 93."
Comments: Again, a bit of a surprise that Bill Condon wasn’t nominated for "Dreamgirls", but even if he had, I think this is the year when Scorsese finally wins his first Oscar for Best Directing.
7. Foreign Language Film: "After the Wedding," Denmark; "Days of Glory (Indigenes)," Algeria; "The Lives of Others," Germany; "Pan’s Labyrinth," Mexico; "Water," Canada.
Comments: Not even close.
8. Adapted Screenplay: Sacha Baron Cohen and Anthony Hines and Peter Baynham and Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips, "Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"; Alfonso Cuaron and Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus and Hawk Ostby, "Children of Men"; William Monahan, "The Departed"; Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children"; Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal."
Comments: A bit of a surprise that "Thank You For Not Smoking" wasn’t nominated. I’m leaning toward "Children of Men" but it could be "The Departed"
9. Original Screenplay: Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel"; Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis, "Letters From Iwo Jima"; Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine" ; Guillermo del Toro, "Pan’s Labyrinth"; Peter Morgan, "The Queen."
Comments: It’s either "Little Mary Sunshine" or "Babel". I’m guessing the former.
10. Animated Feature Film: "Cars," "Happy Feet", Monster House."
Comments: Its environmental message and good music will give "Happy Feet" the edge over "Cars"
11. Art Direction: "Dreamgirls," "The Good Shepherd," "Pan’s Labyrinth", "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest," "The Prestige."
Comments: I’m picking "Pan’s Labyrinth" simply because it’s otherworldly, and (apparently) done very well.
12. Cinematography: "The Black Dahlia," "Children of Men," "The Illusionist," "Pan’s Labyrinth", "The Prestige."
Comments: Futuristic ("Children of Men") and historical ("The Black Dahlia", "The Illusionist") often do well, but so do the otherworldly. I’m leaning toward Pan again.
13. Sound Mixing: "Apocalypto," "Blood Diamond," "Dreamgirls", "Flags of Our Fathers," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest."
14. Sound Editing: "Apocalypto," "Blood Diamond," "Flags of Our Fathers", "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest."
15. Original Score: "Babel," Gustavo Santaolalla; "The Good German," Thomas Newman; "Notes on a Scandal," Philip Glass; "Pan’s Labyrinth", Javier Navarrete; "The Queen," Alexandre Desplat.
Comments: Never go against Philip Glass.
16. Original Song: "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth," Melissa Etheridge; "Listen" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler and Anne Preven; "Love You I Do" from "Dreamgirls", Henry Krieger and Siedah Garrett; "Our Town" from "Cars," Randy Newman; "Patience" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger and Willie Reale.
Comments: Very odd. "Love You I Do" was from the original Broadway score, so one wonders why "I’m Not Going" wasn’t nominated. In truth, the winner will probably be something from "Dreamgirls". I just don’t like "Listen" or "Patience" very much. [UPDATE: Heather says I am wrong about "Love You I Do" being from the original Broadway score, and I probably am.]
17. Costume: "Curse of the Golden Flower," "The Devil Wears Prada", "Dreamgirls," "Marie Antoinette," "The Queen."
Comments: The costume award just has to go to a movie about fashion.
18. Documentary Feature: "Deliver Us From Evil," "An Inconvenient Truth", "Iraq in Fragments," "Jesus Camp," "My Country, My Country."
Comments: Usually, popular documentaries don’t win, but this year will be different.
19. Documentary (short subject): "The Blood of Yingzhou District," "Recycled Life," "Rehearsing a Dream," "Two Hands."
20. Film Editing: "Babel", "Blood Diamond," "Children of Men," "The Departed," "United 93."
21. Makeup: "Apocalypto," "Click," "Pan’s Labyrinth"
22. Animated Short Film: "The Danish Poet," "Lifted," "The Little Matchgirl," "Maestro," "No Time for Nuts."
23. Live Action Short Film: "Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)," "Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)," "Helmer & Son," "The Saviour," "West Bank Story."
24. Visual Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest," "Poseidon," "Superman Returns"