Here’s all you need to know.
The Democrats will take over the House. Nobody doubts that anymore.
As for the Senate, the Democrats will make gains, but in order to take over and get a majority, they need to win in three of these four closely contested states: Montana, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee.
Now check out this chart (click to enlarge), showing the trend lines for Democrats, compiling all recent polling. (The red line represents 50%, so being above that line means a Democratic win):
As you can see, Tennessee looks bleak. Which means that everything rests on Montana, Missouri, and Virginia. Right now, Dems are slightly ahead, but there has been a bit of a downword trend in Montana. (Maryland, once considered safe, is making me nervous too).
Anyway, a lot can happen in the next few days, but it’s going to be a nail-biter.
UPDATE: Here’s another way of breaking down this information…
|
DEMOCRATS
|
GOP
|
|
|---|---|---|
|
TOTALS |
49
|
48
|
|
TOSS-UP
|
3
|
|
| LEANERS |
5
|
0
|
| TOTALS – WITHOUT LEANERS |
44
|
48
|
| NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION |
27
|
40
|
| FAVORED |
17
|
8
|
| ELECTION 2006: SEATS CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DEMOCRAT
|
LEAN DEMOCRAT
|
TOSS-UP
|
LEAN GOP
|
GOP
|
|
Lugar – IN
|
||||
|
Lott – MS
|
||||
|
Hatch – UT
|
||||
| ELECTION 2006: SEATS CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DEMOCRAT
|
LEAN DEMOCRAT
|
TOSS-UP
|
LEAN GOP
|
GOP
|
|
Carper – DE
|
||||
|
Kennedy – MA
|
||||
|
Conrad – ND
|
||||
* – Denotes Independent Candidate