Dems Looking Better To America

Ken AshfordElection 2006Leave a Comment

The latest poll from the Pew Research Center (PDF) is out, and as always, it provides some interesting information.  Kevin Drum notes that the public is evenly split (at 48%) on the question of whether to keep troops in Iraq until it is stable vs. bringing them home as soon as possible.

I, however, was struck by the advances that Democrats have made in public opinion with regard to their ability to handle a wide range of domestic and foreign problems.  Here’s the chart:

Pewpoll_1

Note that the Dem/Rep gap with regard to Iraq has increased from +5 (in January 2005) to +19 (in January 2006).

More importantly, Republicans — always seen as better capable at handling national security and terrorism issues — are seeing that perceived strength erode.  Last year, they led Dem 58 to 19 (a gap of 39 points).  That gap has been narrowed to mere 18 points (Repubs are still seen as stronger, but only by 52 to 34).

And one year ago, people saw Dems and Repubs just about the same with regard to handling social and domestic matters.  This is no longer so: people favor Dems by 22 points (44% to 22%, to be precise).  We’ll call this the "Katrina effect".

All-in-all, this bodes well for elections later this year.  But that’s a loooong way away, so Dems still have plenty of time to bungle things up.