Poll Report: End Of Day

Ken AshfordElection 20081 Comment

Not a lot happened at the polling station where I was the Democratic Observer.

I mean, it really was dull!
With the exception of the first hour, from 7:30 to 8:30 am, there were absolutely no lines.
I despaired, thinking that low voter turnout would be bad for Obama.
However, the precinct that I was monitoring broke turnout records.  You wouldn't have known to be there, though, because of early voting.
Basically, it breaks down this way:
Percentage of registered voters who voted:  70%
Percentage of registered voters who voted today: 43%
Percentage of registered voters who voted early:  27%
So, an easy day.
A couple of thoughts:
1.  You know, back in 2000, a lot of people (NOT me) mocked Florida voters who were confused by the butterfly ballot.
Well, you know, when you are elderly, or voting for the first time, it IS confusing.
The ballot at my monitored precinct was a simple optical scan ballot.  You fill in the bubble, just like the SATs, except with a pen instead of a No. 2 pencil.  Then you stick it in a machine.
Couldn't be simpler, right?
 
But if you've never done it before, it CAN be tough.  Some people didn't understand the straight ticket issue (which IS kind of weird in North Carolina).  Some people thought you HAD to vote in every single race on the ballot.
Okay, there were one or two who tried to puncture the ballot with the pen.  And of course, MOST people "got it".  But still, for others, it IS hard, if not intimidating.
Fortunately, we had some good poll workers.
2.  It was always nice to see parents bring their kids.  Many of them didn't want to fill their ballots out in the "booths" but preferred to sit at a long lunchroom table (my polling place was an elementary school), so that their kid could sit on their lap.  They would fill out the ballot together, as the parent explained. 
 
And the kid got an "I Voted" sticker (a popular item, since the words was out that both Starbucks and Krispy Kreme were giving out freebies to anyone with such a sticker).

Flashback: A Cautionary Tale For Today

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

From this PDF, a riveting blow-by-blow of the disaster that befell one network's Election Night coverage eight years ago.

2:15 a.m.: Fox News calls Florida for Bush, giving Bush the presidency.

2:16 a.m: NBC calls Florida and the presidency for Bush.

2:17 a.m.: The Decision Team completes its review of the Florida data and the apparent Bush lead of some 51,000. However, it bases its calculations on information from VNS and is not checking on vote counts of the AP, which is showing Bush with a 16 smaller lead and losing ground, or with the vote counts from the Florida secretary of state. AP has just caught the Volusia County error and has restored votes to Gore, so that AP now shows a Bush statewide lead of only about 30,000. The Decision Team, unaware of this, recommends to CNN and CBS that they call Florida for Bush, and they do so.
Shaw tells CNN viewers: “George Bush, governor of Texas, will become the 43rd president of the United States. At 18 minutes past two o’clock eastern time, CNN declares that George Walker Bush has won Florida’s 25 electoral votes and this should put him over the top.”
Jeff Greenfield adds that “with Florida, he gets 271 electoral votes, one more than he needs. What happens in Oregon and Wisconsin now becomes irrelevant unless by some remarkable miracle some state changes course.”
Much of the discussion over the next hour discusses the apparent Bush victory and the coming Bush presidency.

2:20 a.m.: ABC calls Florida and the presidency for Bush, the final network to do so. AP and VNS have not called Florida for Bush and never do.

2:40 a.m.: The Decision Team relaxes “for the first time all night” as more voting data comes in. VNS shows Bush’s Florida lead growing by just over 4,000 votes to a total of about 55,500 with only 68,500 votes left to be counted. (In fact, there were nearly 250,000 uncounted votes at that time).
With the data it had at 2:40 a.m., “we would have most certainly made the call then if we had not already made the call at 2:17 a.m.,” the Decision Team said in its postelection review. “We would not have been doing our jobs if we had declined to project the race based upon such convincing data.”

2:48 a.m.: Volusia County corrects its mistaken vote totals and Bush’s statewide lead narrows to 39,600, according to VNS.

3:00 a.m.: Most of the remaining vote from Palm Beach Count comes in, which narrows Bush’s lead further to about 11,000. The Volusia and Palm Beach changes make the race so close as to have “eliminated our margin for error,” the Decision Tea says later.
At the same time, CNN’s Bernard Shaw is telling the audience: “The United States has a new president. He’s the Texas governor, George Walker Bush, who tonight defeated Vice President Al Gore.”
Correspondent John King reports from Nashville that Gore ha called Bush to concede and is on his way to downtown Nashville to deliver concession remarks. Gore’s decision is based, in some large measure, on what television is reporting.
The anchors note that Bush’s lead appears to be only about 11,000 votes out of 5.6 million cast.

Final Predictions

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Projections 

Also, in my local elections:

  • Foxx (R) beats Carter (D) for House 5th District

  • Perdue (D) beats McCrory (R) for Governor

Ballot initiative predictions:

  • Ban on gay marriages (ballot initiatives in California, Arizona, and Florida) — all defeated

  • Arkansas ballot initiative to prevent gay couples from adopting babies — passed

  • Colorado ballot initiative to ban all abortion — defeated

  • South Dakota ballot initiative to ban abortion except in certain cases like health of mother, rape or incest — passed

  • California ballot initiative require doctors to inform parents of any minor seeking abortion — passed

  • Massachusetts ballot initiative to make marijuana possession a subject to a civil penalty (a $100 fine), rather than a criminal violation — passed

  • San Francisco ballot initiative decriminalizing prostitution — defeated (barely)

Other predictions:

  • Popular vote in presidential elections: Obama 52.2%  McCain 46.6%  Other: 1.2%
  • If Obama wins the popular vote by over 10%, you'll be hearing the phrase "cellphone effect" a lot
  • If Obama wins the popular vote by under 3% (or if he loses), you'll be hearing the phrase "Bradley effect" a lot
  • Number of hours after Election Day before Limbaugh or O'Reilly attributes Obama election win to fraud/conspiracy of some sort:  12
  • Time that CNN and MSNBC call the election for Obama: 10:35 pm
  • Time that FOX news calls the election for Obama:  10:55 pm. 

UPDATE:  Oops, my graphic is wrong.  It should be Obama 349, McCain 189.  For what it's worth, my prediction map is very close to that of Karl Rove, except Rove gave Missouri to McCain. Markos gives Obama 390 EVs — my map, plus he gives North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana to Obama.  I think that's all quite possible.

One Last Thing Before I Call It A Night…

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

I'm checking in early tonight.  Like I wrote earlier, I'm going to be an Obama poll observer tomorrow, which means my day starts BEFORE the polls open (at 6:30 a.m.) and end after they close (at 7:30 p.m.).

But speaking of polls, one last thing… DO NOT LISTEN TO EXIT POLLS TOMORROW.

They are notoriously unreliable for many reasons.  

For one thing, people vote at different times.  Democrats, for example, tend to vote late.  So an exit poll coming out at, say 3:00 is going to underrepresent Democrats.

Also, in this election more than any other election EVER, early voting turnout is at record levels across the country.  Obviously, those people will not be polled for exit polls (seeing as how they exited days or even weeks ago).  If there is an enthusiasm gap for Obama, causing more Obama voters to vote early, then (once again) the exit polls will be skewed.

Nearly every pollster and statistician is saying the same thing.  Exit polls are virtually meaningless.

Ignore them.

Oh, and if you haven't voted, do it.

And so I'll leave with you with this "Les Miserables" inspired Election 2008 video:

Okay, one more "one more thing" — a nice video/song.  Very rarely has a spoken speech been so pleasantly incorporated into music…

RIP Madelyn Dunham

Ken AshfordElection 2008, In PassingLeave a Comment

Sad, and sad timing.  Obama's ailing grandmother died.

Obama addressed this tonight in Charlotte:

The morons at the Free Republic question the timing, some suggesting that she died last week, and the news was released now so that Obama could get the last minute "sympathy vote".  Pretty ugly, huh?

Well, ugly is as ugly does.  Incidentially, the RNC, through the California Republican Party, filed an FEC complaint against Obama complaining that Obama visited his ailing Grandma.  The complaint was filed just hours before she died.  Kind of dickish, in retrospect.

Tomorrow’s Weather

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Doesn't look like it will be much of a factor in battleground states, except in eastern NC (heavy Republican) and part of Virginia (mixed bag).

Maybe also in parts of Montana and North Dakota, which have become swing states recently.

Fill_98qwbg

Don’t Buckle Up; We’re Not In For A Long, Bumpy Night

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

SPECIAL NOTE:  I probably won't be blogging the returns tomorrow.  I'll be polling site monitoring for the Obama campaign from 6:00 am until 7:30 pm.  Assuming I have any strength left, I'll be going to the local Obama headquarters to watch the results.  That said….

UPDATE:  Nate Silver probably has THE best "What To Watch For" article out there.  Read it.

I predict it will not be a late night before we know our next president.  In fact, it's shaping up to be a quite boring evening (but for the historical importance).  For those interested in the almost-as-important Senate races and some interesting ballot initiatives on gay marriage, tomorrow night will be interesting.  But otherwise, don't plan on an early morning deal like we had in 2000 and 2004.

CNN has a nice map of poll closing times, but here's a breakdown of poll closing of the key states in this election (all times are Eastern):

7:00 p.m.     Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m.     Ohio, North Carolina
8:00 p.m.     Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
9:00 p.m.     Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10:00 p.m.    Nevada, Montana

These times reflect when ALL the polls close in a certain state, but it should be noted that some states close polls at different times.  For example, parts of Indiana close as early as 6:00, and parts of Florida close as early as 7:00.  This means that counting can start earlier.

Now, the networks don't annouce results for any state until the polls close in that state.  Electoral-collegely speaking, they cannot announce a "winner" until after the 10:00 polls close (there simply aren't enough EVs out there from the earlier states).

But unlike the networks, and for purposes of my analysis, I'm going to ignore the "solid" states and assume that they will break the way everybody thinks.  For example, I'm going to assume that we can call California for Obama right now.  In other words, let's not wait for the fat lady to sing as to these solid states, and take it as a given that she will sing.

This allows us to focus on the "battleground states", most of which are in the eastern part of the United States.

And if you are willing to accept my assumptions about solid states, there are several scenarios which portend an early night tomorrow.   This is what to watch for….

7:00 pm to 7:59 pm – The "Indiana/Virginia/OH or NC" Early Ending Scenario

If the networks call Indiana and Virgina for Obama before 7:30, you can pour the victory champagne if you're in the Obama camp.  But you can only pour it; not drink it.

Because if that happens — if the Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama — all Obama really needs at that point is one more victory from any ONE state on my list above that closes at 7:30 (Ohio or North Carolina).

I suspect, however, this scenario won't happen, and certainly not before 8:00.  Virginia might be called for Obama between 7:00 and 8:00, but probably not Indiana (it's simply too close there). 

So, as the clock ticks toward 8:00, and you don't have an "Indiana/Virginia/OH or NC" thing in the works, it might be best to turn your attention to….

7:30 pm to 9:30 pm — The "Any Two" Early Ending Scenario

Of the states listed above that close at 8:00 pm or earlier (Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri) – if McCain loses any TWO of them, you can go to bed, even though it will be a few more hours before the networks can officially call a winner.  McCain can afford to lose one of these states in order to thread the EV needle, but not two of them.

Assuming that many of these races are too close to call, another very likely "early ending" scenario to watch is…

8:00 pm to 10:00 pm — The "Virginia/Ohio/Pennsylvania Trifecta" Early Ending Scenario

If the networks call it for Obama in any TWO of Virginia, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, pour the champagne if you're in the Obama camp.

When/if the third one is called, that's when you can drink it.  The election is (effectively) over.  Even if McCain wins every other state listed above (including the western states listed there), he simply can't win enough electoral votes.

NOTE: You can substitute Florida for either Virginia, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, if you want.  However, I think Florida has a smaller chance of being called early.  Obama leads by 6-7 points in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania according to the latest RCP poll averages, where as it is a true toss-up in Florida.  That's why the Virginia/Ohio/PA trifecta is the most likely scenario for an early call for Obama.

Okay.  There's one more scenario I'd like to throw in the mix….

Anytime — The "Georgia" Upset

Georgia is not listed in my "battleground" states above.  That's because it is considered to be a "safe McCain" state.  However, as "safe" states go, it's only 3-4 points in the McCain's favor.

Georgia's polls close at 7:00 pm.  IF Obama manages an upset in that state (a huge IF), it is quite possible that this will be known before 10:00, and as early as 9:00. 

Here's the rule of thumb: if the networks call Georgia for Obama, turn off the TV.  It's over for McCain.  (In fact, if the TV talking heads are using the word "upset" for ANY state in connection with an Obama win, it is over).

***********************************

My personal feeling is that the networks won't be able to call the election before 10:00 pm.  But I expect we will know an official winner by 10:30, even with all these close battleground states in the east (one reason is because of the massive amount of early votes, which precincts will start counting tomorrow morning).

But if 10:30 is past your bedtime (or interest level), I hope this will help you

A final caveat, which should go without saying: Remember Election Night 2000.  Or the 1986 Red Sox-Mets World Series.  It really isn't over until the fat lady sings.

Crowley

How God Wants You To Vote

Ken AshfordElection 2008, GodstuffLeave a Comment

I really didn't think the Bible touched very much on American politics, but apparently I was wrong.

The Reverend Rob Schenck (pronounced SHANK), a 15-year missionary to elected and appointed officials on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, and chairman of the Committee on Church and Society for the Evangelical Church Alliance, America's oldest association of Evangelical ministers, missionaries, institutional chaplains and organizations, offered this advice today to Christians as they prepare to vote on Tuesday, November 4: 

"The Bible offers clear and simple guidance to Christians on how to choose candidates for public office, including how to choose a president. In Deuteronomy, Chapter 17, verses 14 – 20, we are instructed to select leaders that meet these ten criteria:

Deuteronomy 17 is the chapter which says that people who sacrifice sheep to God, or believe in other faiths, shall be stoned to death, so…. it's politically relevant to today, I guess.

1.   He /she is to be the person God wants in this position. (Dt 17:15a) This can only be discerned through prayer.

Well, the prayer part is editorializing a bit (it's not actually in Dt 17:15).  But we'll let that go.

2.  He/she "may not be a foreigner." (Dt 17:15b) In other words, a candidate must be familiar with our values, convictions and way of life.

That's fine.  The Constitution says the same thing — about being a citizen, etc.

3.  He/she must not be power hungry, but rather a true "public servant" who has demonstrated humility and a servant's heart. (Dt 17:16)

Actually, Dt 17:16 talks about having "multiple horses".  But in any event, I think both Obama and McCain fit this criteria nicely.  Obama was a community organizer; McCain served his country in Vietnam.

4.  He/she must be a moral person, committed to his/her spouse and family and understand and practice fidelity in all things. In other words, he/she must demonstrate he/she keeps a promise. (Dt 17:17)

Ooops.  McCain divorced his first wife after she became disabled in a car accident. 

5.  He/she must be personally familiar with the Bible and keep company with God-appointed pastors and teachers. (Dt 17:18)

Well, I guess Obama takes his hits here with the Reverend Wright thing (if one swallows the strength of that "association", which I don't), but McCain — has anyone ever seen him in a church?

6.  He/she must give regular, routine, methodical attention to the teaching of Scripture (Dt 17:19a)

I suspect both Obama and McCain are screwed here.

7.  He/she must be open and willing to submit to the entirety of what the Bible teaches, not just select portions of it. (Dt:17b)

The irony here, of course, is that this criteria is cherry-picked from the Bible.

8.  He/she must maintain a humble and teachable heart and mind, and be honest about his/her failures. (Dt 17:20a)

I think, in all fairness, both candidates are equal (equally good and equally deficient) on this factor. 

9.  He/she must not subordinate his/her principles to an extreme political ideology or constituency. In other words, he/she must be a person of deep conviction who does what is best for the country, not for the party. (Dt 17:20b)

McCain picked Palin to appease the conservative wing of the GOP and to capitalize on the Clinton women.  'Nuff said.

He/she must have a long-term plan to leave a lasting and positive legacy for future generations, and not govern simply for the moment out of political expediency. (Dt 17:20c)

McCain picked Palin to appease the conservative wing of the GOP and to capitalize on the Clinton women.  'Nuff said.

 

And finally, Rev. Schenk concludes:

"I urge Christians to take these instructions very seriously and to carry them into the voting booth. Once at the polling station, take whatever time is necessary to pray and compare each candidate to these criteria before making a choice…."

Nice sentiments indeed.  I just urge Christians to pray before they get into the voting booth, if at all possible.  Because I have a feeling it's going to be a busy day, and we'll need to move things along.

What’s Kristol Smoking?

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Right Wing Punditry/IdiocyLeave a Comment

Honestly.  Just when I think he can't write a more inane column, well dammit, there he goes and does it.

Barack Obama will probably win the 2008 presidential election. If he does, we conservatives will greet the news with our usual resolute stoicism or cheerful fatalism.

Right.  I'm sure that's how Rush will be on Wednesday.  Although, I'm not so concerned about Rush as I am the really nutbad conservative fringe, who, inspired by Rush, will greet the news with their usual assassination plots.

Being conservative means never being too surprised by disappointment.

Dead black people after Katrina, financial crisis brought on by conservatives' years of deregulation — yeah, what a disappointment.

But what if John McCain pulls off an upset?

I’m worried about my compatriots on the left. Michael Powell reports in Saturday’s New York Times that even the possibility of an Obama defeat has driven many liberals into in a state of high anxiety. And then there’s a young woman from Denver who “told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado.” Well, what if Obama loses Colorado? Or the presidency? As a compassionate conservative, I’m concerned about the well-being of that boyfriend — and of others who might be similarly situated. I feel an obligation to help.

Ah, the concern troll.  Perhaps Kristol et al should be focussing on the fate of their

So let me tell liberals why they should be cheerful if McCain happens to win.

Oh, please don't.

1. It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.

McCain's was never the underdog.  He's always been wildly popular with the electorate and the media.  He ran a successful campaign against Bush, and nearly won.  He'a war hero, and he's running against a young black man.  Since when is the white popular guy and underdog to the unknown black guy?

2. It would be a defeat for the establishment. Obama’s most recent high-profile Republican endorser was D.C. insider Kenneth Duberstein. Liberals should be on the side of hard-working plumbers, not big-shot lobbyists — oops, sorry, big-shot strategic advisers and consultants. And Duberstein said that Colin Powell’s endorsement was “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama.” Doesn’t that comment embody everything that liberals (and many conservatives, including me) find creepy about smug establishment back-scratching and gatekeeping in America?

Wait a second.  Obama is the "establishment"?  McCain's campaign is run by lobbyists, D.C. insiders, and Rove protogees.  So if McCain wins, it's a defeat for the establishment?  And since when does Colin Powell represent the "establishment"?

3. It would be a victory for the future. With President Bush’s approval rating at about 25 percent, a McCain triumph would mean Americans were making a judgment on two future alternatives, not merely voting on the basis of their resentment at the past performance of George W. Bush. It would mean voters were looking ahead, not back. Liberals should therefore welcome a McCain win as a triumph of hope over fear, of the future over the past.

Well, gee, Bill.  Thanks for the meaningless pablum.  Can't that also be said about an Obama victory?  Or even a Bob Barr victory?

4. It would be a victory for freedom. Obama supporter Leon Wieseltier of The New Republic writes that “tyrants and génocidaires would sleep less soundly during a McCain presidency.” Liberals should be opposed to tyranny and genocide. Wieseltier also acknowledges that McCain “was splendidly right about the surge, which is not a small thing; and the grudging way Obama treats the reversal in Iraq, when he treats it at all, is disgraceful.” The surge advanced not only our national security but the cause of freedom in the world. Liberals should be votaries of freedom.

I don't know what "victory for freedom" means. I suspect Bill doesn't either; he just llikes the sound of that phrase.  In any evevnt, he seems to tie it to Iraq.  Because nothing says "freedom" to Iraqis more than keeping Americans in their country indefinitely.

5. A McCain victory would be good for liberalism. Look at recent history. Jimmy Carter and a Democratic Congress begat Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton and a Democratic Congress produced Newt Gingrich. Who knows what would follow a President Obama and a Democratic Congress? Here’s one possibility: President Sarah Palin.

Oh, I get it.  Liberals should be glad that McCain-Palin wins, because that makes a Palin presidency less likely — and an Obama win makes a Palin presidency more likely.

Bill, have you looked at McCain lately?  He's got one foot-in-the-grave.

In any event, perhaps Kristol hasn't got the memo: Obama is the real conservative.

So liberals shouldn’t be too upset at the idea of McCain winning. Could it happen?

It’s possible. What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.

McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He’d have to take Florida and Ohio, where he’s about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.

McCain’s path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) — or New Hampshire, where he’s 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.

And then, and then, and then, McCain has to win the Electoral Votes of the MOON, if there is some way between now and tomorrow that we could make the Moon a 51st state, because we should because because because there's an American flag on it, and…..

To give Bill some credit, he's pretty accurately pegged what McCain has to to do in order to win.  Let's read what Bill wrote… slowly. 

First, McCain has to win EVERY state in which he has had a lead (and some of those states, like his home state of Arizona, McCain's lead is only a couple of points).   

THEN he must win North Carolina AND win Indiana AND win Missouri AND win Florida AND win Ohio (i.e., all the "battleground states" which all show slight Obama leads or ties) and even then he's only at 247 of the 270 votes he needs.

And he even if he manages to do ALL THAT, he still has to pull off a miracle win in Pennsylvania (where he is down 8-13 points in the latest polls) AND one of several other states where he is down by 6-7 points.

In other words, to win, McCain can't have ANY upsets, and pull out SEVERAL miracles.

It’s an inside straight. But I’ve seen gamblers draw them.

Yeah, but how many times has a gambler drawn that many inside straights in a row?

If McCain wins, think of this column as a modest contribution to cheering up distraught liberals. If Obama prevails, I’m confident there are some compassionate liberals out there who will do the same for hapless conservatives as they hobble out to the wilderness.

Or maybe we'll just spend the next four years questioning conservatives' patriotism.  That's what winners get to do, right, Bill?

Owner Of Gun Manufacturing Company Forced To Resign…

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Gun Control1 Comment

…and why?   Because he's an Obama supporter.

The namesake of Montana-based Cooper Firearms has been asked to resign as president of the company after he expressed support for Barack Obama.

The company said it asked Dan Cooper, founder and part owner of Cooper Firearms, to resign as president after he voiced support for the Democratic Illinois senator's bid for president in a USA Today interview published Tuesday, USA Today reported Friday.

Cooper, who said he usually votes Republican, told the paper in the interview he planned to vote for Obama "probably because of the war. And also because the Republican Party has moved so far right in recent years."

Cooper said Thursday he had submitted his resignation to the board.

Joke is on the gun company…. Obama is pro-Second Amendment

Chart Of The Day

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

By Charles Franklin at Pollster.com…. click on it for a full size version

EvoteBarChart-thumb-600x168

This chart shows where McCain must gain, and where Obama must hold in order to get to 270.

States appear in order of Obama minus McCain margin. Width is proportional to Electoral Vote. It takes 269 to tie, 270 to win. The yellow states are very close and jumping around a bit with each new poll. 

Basically, the EASIEST way for McCain to win would be: McCain must hold his strong McCain states (dark red) and lean McCain states (pink), capture ALL the battleground states (yellow), capture ALL of the lean Obama states (light blue), and pick off one or two strong Obama states (dark blue).