Unwanted Teen Pregnancies: Blame Evangelicals

Ken AshfordSex/Morality/Family ValuesLeave a Comment

Sarah Palin's out-of-wedlock pregnant daughter isn't all that uncommon.  In fact, evangelical teenagers lose their virginity earlier than most other demographics.  Even after their sexual debut, evangelical teen-agers are more sexually active than Mormons, mainline Protestants, and Jews.

And because they don't believe in contraception, they are more inclined to get pregnant (compared to other demographics).

And what about these Christian movements which try to get teens to pledge abstinence until marriage?  Well, they don't achieve those goals (although the pledgers do delay sex eighteen months longer than non-pledgers, and have fewer partners).  And what's more:

according to the sociologists Peter Bearman, of Columbia University, and Hannah Brückner, of Yale, communities with high rates of pledging also have high rates of S.T.D.s.

Another interesting finding regarding "pledging" programs: in some cases, if it becomes too successsful, it falls apart and becomes unsuccessful:

[I]f too many teens pledge, the effort basically collapses. Pledgers apparently gather strength from the sense that they are an embattled minority; once their numbers exceed thirty per cent, and proclaimed chastity becomes the norm, that special identity is lost…. once the self-proclaimed virgin clique hits the thirty-one-per-cent mark, suddenly it’s Sodom and Gomorrah.

And while there are (of course) exceptions to the rule…

…the states with the highest divorce rates were Nevada, Arkansas, Wyoming, Idaho, and West Virginia (all red states in the 2004 election); those with the lowest were Illinois, Massachusetts, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Jersey. The highest teen-pregnancy rates were in Nevada, Arizona, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Texas (all red); the lowest were in North Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Maine (blue except for North Dakota). “The ‘blue states’ of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have lower teen birthrates, higher use of abortion, and lower percentages of teen births within marriage,” …. [P]eople start families earlier in red states—in part because they are more inclined to deal with an unplanned pregnancy by marrying rather than by seeking an abortion.

Read more in Red Sex, Blue Sex at The New Yorker

Election Bites

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

* North Carolina has extended its early voting hours.

*  Former Sec. of State Larry Eagleburger, who McCain often cites as an endorser of his presidency, is no Palin fan.

*  Elizabeth Dole's attack ads on Kaye Hagan  — and specifically, on Hagan's lack of faith (Hagan is a church elder and Sunday school teacher) — is still being soundly denounced nationwide.  But Hagan isn't taking it lying down.  She's filed a lawsuit.  Normally, you can't sue another candidate because they make false statements in a political ad, but Dole's ad comes awfully close to being defamatory and crossing that legal line.

* The Washington Post exposes the McCain campaign's latest desparate attempt to link Obama to extremism.  The problem is that McCain himself has "ties to" that same "extremist", who, not surprisingly, isn't all that extremist.

* The fact that McCain has to spend campaign money to launch robocalls to get support in his home state of Arizona is a sure sign that he's in deep doo-doo come Nov. 4.

* I can't believe the McCain campaign is still campaigning the "Joe the Plumber" card.  They think that Joe is the iconic typical American.  While that is true, is that going to sway anybody?  "Look, here's someone just like you, and he's voting for McCain."  The problem with this is two-fold: (1)  Every American can find an America "just like them" by looking in the mirror.  Joe's no more special than anybody else.  So why will HIS vote influence OTHERS' votes? (2)  Joe the Plumber is no longer just a typical American.  How many "typical" Americans have a press agent, and are working on a record contract, and are considering running for Senate, ALL by virtue of his 15 minutes of fame?

* McCain to appear on SNL this coming weekend.  Can't hurt at this point, I suppose….

*  Aside from an Obama win, one of the nice things to come from this election includes the collapse of influence on the national discussion from the religious right, the death of neo-conservatism, the death of the theory that "negative advertising works", and the dethroning of of Matt Drudge as an influence on the media (If I were more ambitious, I could do a post on each of these….)

What I Won’t Miss After November 4

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

  • blogging about the election

  • campaign surrogates (advisors, consultants) speaking on my tv
  • Sarah Palin
  • manufactured outrage as a campaign tactic
  • all of the following phrases:

  1. socialist
  2. communist
  3. share the wealth
  4. redistribute the wealth
  5. you betcha
  6. joe the plumber
  7. "first dude"
  8. william ayers
  9. reverand wright
  10. "in the tank for"
  11. maverick
  12. wall street vs. main street
  13. ACORN
  14. "associations with…." and "ties to…"
  15. "pallin' around with…"
  16. "my friends"
  17. "real american"
  18. hockey mom
  19. change (sorry, but it IS tiresome)
  20. elitist/elitism
  21. kitchen table
  22. "speaking directly to the American people…"
  23. Bradley effect

Best Wingnut Theory Of The Election Cycle

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

2nia0xy Obama is winning because… you ready?… he's hypnotizing us.

Yup. 

And here is a 67 page, 192 footnote pdf file entitled “An Examination of Obama’s Use of Hidden Hypnosis Techniques in His Speeches.” which proves it.

It's a remarkable piece of work, in its breadth, as the author analyzes Obama words (the pacing and inflection) and gestures from various speeches, all of which have — literally — hypnotized the electorate.

A screenshot from the PDF offers a typical example (click to enlarge):

Hypnobama 

Well.

Let's hope that Obama will be using his magic powers for the cause of good, and not evil.

UPDATE:  Here's a runner-up theory for why McCain is losing.  For those too lazy to follow the link, I'll summarize. 

You see, Obama has a cousin in Kenya named Odinka.  Odinka and his "tribe" of satanists, witches and warlocks "get up daily at 3 a.m. to release curses against McCain and Palin".  These occultists are:

 "weaving lazy 8's around McCain's mind to make him look confused and like an idiot"

Uuuuuhhhmmm, yyyyeah.  Seems to be working, too.

And just to stack the deck, Obama's Kenyan grandmother sacrificed a white and black chicken so that blacks and whites would vote for Obama.

Don't doubt this!  After all, could a website with the word "jesus" in the url be lying???

UPDATE:  Oh, how could I forget?  The wingnut theory that Obama is really the secret love child of Malcolm X.  (Malcolm X was a scary black man, don't ya know… are you picking up on this theme?)

Curt Throws An Ironic Curveball

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Red Sox & Other Sports3 Comments

Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling:

"I guess what I am saying, or asking, is that if you are undecided about who to cast your vote for, don't vote for someone a celebrity tells you to vote for. That's lame, lazy and disrespectful of the rights you've been given," Schilling wrote. "Take the time to listen and see these people. I don't doubt for a second that if you listen to these men and women, if you hear what they are saying, if you look at what kind of people they are, I don't think you can come to any other conclusion than John McCain is far and away the best human being alive to be the next President of the United States of America."

"Don't listen to celebrities, vote for McCain." says the celebrity

Joe The Plumber

Ken AshfordElection 20081 Comment

AmericaBlog nails it:

Let me get this straight. John McCain finds a guy to be his mascot for Americans who will be hurt under Obama's tax plan, when in fact Joe Mascot does better under Obama's plan than he does under McCain's. And to add insult to injury, Joe doesn't really pay all his taxes anyway – he's delinquent. But somehow that makes him a "hero" to Republicans, and it makes him John McCain's perfect mascot for the campaign – a guy who doesn't pay his taxes and who will benefit more from an Obama presidency. And now, "Joe" has hired a personal manager (read: agent) who hopes to get Joe doing Home Depot commercials and maybe even running for Congress (seriously). What's next, $150,000 outfits and $8,000 make-up jobs? Are there any Republicans left who appreciate the debasement of their party that is happening before their eyes?

RIP Estelle Reiner

Ken AshfordIn PassingLeave a Comment

Mother of actor-director Rob Reiner, wife of writer-actor Carl Reiner, Estelle was best known for utterance of a single movie line, which appears at the end of this clip:

I Have A Question….

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

From the L.A. Times, regarding their recent poll:

Among poll respondents who already have voted in Ohio, Obama has a big lead: 57% to 35%. But McCain is slightly ahead in Florida among early-voting respondents, 49% to 45%.


Note the sample population.  These are people who already voted.  In Florida, 6% voted for someone other than McCain or Obama.  In Ohio,  that's 8%.  Now, I know there are third party candidate (Bob Barr, Ralph Nader), but come on…..

Ouch

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

The quote:

"I just don't see how [McCain] can win… He has lost his brand as a maverick; he did not live up to his pledge to fight a clean campaign."


That's pretty harsh, since it comes from Rep. Chris Shays, the only Republican in the House, and the co-chairman of the McCain campaign in Connecticut!!

Tonight’s Obama Infomercial

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

It'll be on CBS, NBC, MSNBC, Fox, and a few others (not, however, ABC)

I guess I'll watch it, seeing as how my show was cancelled. 

But the infomercial, taped last week, sounds kind of dry and dull, the kind of pablum that they play at the national party conventions.  It'll focus on the stories of four American families, with Obama's narration, and him speaking driectly to the camera.

Listen, I'm the one who decries "politics as entertainment", but — man, if you're going to soak up the TV for half an hour?  In this era of short attention spans?  You just gotta have more pizazz than that.  I mean, even a really good Powerpoint presentation sounds more exciting (and probably more informative, too).

But far be it for me to give advice to the Obama campain.  They seem to know what they're doing.

Here, by the way, is McCain's "response ad" to the half-hour Obama infomericial

I can't, for the life of me, think why the McCain campaign figures this ad will help. McCain is harkening back to an old theme he tried back in September — i.e., that Obama is a "celebrity". Then, as now, the meme seems to acknowledge — even embrace — the fact that the majority of Americans have warmed up to Obama.  It reinforces that notion.

Oh sure, the main message of the ad is that Obama needs more experience, but that hasn't worked for McCain in the past either.  (Pssst — didn't work when it was tried on Bush in 2000 or Clinton in 1992 either).  Americans DO want change, and McCain's "experience" in Washington hasn't brought it about.  To the extent that Obama is wet behind the ears, some might even see that as a GOOD thing.

Most importantly, the ad says nothing about McCain will do if he were President.  A bad counterpunch to an Obama informercial which, I assume, will talk specifics about what Obama will do.  I suspect more people would prefer a presidential candidate, even an "inexperienced" one, who has a clear plan for change, than an "experienced" presidential candidate who offers no plan but merely retorts, "But he doesn't have experience".

At least Obama has the experience to know that the American people want solutions, and the experience to lay out his ideas.

Perhaps the most curious part of the ad is the tag line — the final statement saying that Obama is "not ready…. yet".  It's the "yet" that makes me tilt my head aside like a dog hearing a high-pitched whistle.  Who stuck that word in there?  It's almost like McCain is saying, "Yeah, Obama is great — really he is — but vote for him in 2012.  Not now." 

Not exactly the strongest response ad.

Very odd.

POST-INFOMERCIAL THOUGHTS:  A little too pre-packaged and heavy-handed for my taste, and he name-dropping of battleground states (state-dropping?) was none too subtle.  But he hit a lot of right notes, especially the parts where he called on Americans to do things for themselves a little (i.e., energy conservation, "government doesn't have all the answers").  The humility ("I'll make mistakes as President") and the biographical stuff should help, too.  

ONE FURTHER THOUGHT:  In retrospect, after seeing the Obama informercial, the McCain response ad (above, which aired on MSNBC eight minutes later as a commercial, and then on the Olbermann's show at 8:42) looks petty and ugly and just too negative.  And perhaps worst of all, really devoid of McCain's idea.  Ironic, in that after seeing both, one is left with the impression that we don't know where McCain really stands.

AND FOR THE WHO MISSED IT…


Obama Had A Good Line In Raleigh Today

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Obama added a new zinger to his standard stump speech. 

It comes at around 1:05, but you need to listen to the set-up.

UPDATE: On the other hand, if Obama is going to go off-script, as he did in Raleigh today, he needs to bone up on his T.V. trivia:

Barack Obama, in Raleigh, N.C., was doing a riff attacking John McCain for supporting the idea of putting some mandatory retirement money into the stock market.

"If Senator McCain is elected, we'll have another president who wants to privatize part of your Social Security. Could you imagine if you had your Social Security invested in the stock market these last two weeks, these last two months? You wouldn't need Social Security. You'd be having a — like, what was it, Sanford and Son. `I'm coming Weezie!"

Memo to Sen. Obama:

Weezie was on The Jeffersons. Louise "Weezie" Jefferson — played by Isabel Sanford.

And it was Redd Foxx's Fred G. Sanford who used to feign heart attacks to guilt trip his son, Lamont:

"Oh, this is the big one! You hear that, Elizabeth?! I'm coming to join you, honey!"