Desparate Dole

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Local InterestLeave a Comment

Rather than type it myself, I'll just let Steve Benen do it for me:

Recent polling shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) trailing in her re-election fight in North Carolina against Democrat Kay Hagan, so it stands to reason that she's getting a little desperate.

I didn't think she'd get this desperate.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole's latest advertisement suggests her Democratic opponent, Kay Hagan, is a godless heathen.

"A leader of the Godless Americans PAC recently held a secret fundraiser for Kay Hagan," the 30-second spot says, showing footage of the group's members talking about their atheist beliefs on cable news.

"Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid from cameras. Took godless money," the ad concludes. "What did Kay Hagan promise in return?"

At the very end of the ad, a voice sounding like Hagan's says: "There is no God."

Seriously, Dole used a Hagan impersonator to make voters think she's an atheist.

It's hard to know where to start with an ad this deplorable. First, Hagan is actually a Sunday school teacher and an elder in her church. Second, the fundraiser in question was co-hosted by 40 people, one of whom is on the board of an atheist political action committee. Third, there's nothing scandalous about non-believers.

And fourth, what the hell is "godless money"?

Maybe "godless money" is money with the words "In God We Trust" etched out — I don't know.

The sad part is that there exists a significant portion of dumbass hicks in this state (is it elitist for me to say that?) who will see this ad and go "fuck yeah" without so much of a thought about whether it is true, or without reflection on its stupidity, i.e., its reference to "godless money".  However, those people are already Dole voters.  I'm not sure (at least I hope) it's going to motivated very many undecideds.

UPDATE:  Here's the commercial, if you can stomach it.  It's already being called one of the most vile in this campaign season.

UPDATE:  Hagan isn't taking this lying down.

Sharing The Wealth

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

“We’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.”


It's true, though.  It's true, because the State of Alaska…

imposes huge levies on the oil companies that lease its oil fields. The proceeds finance the government’s activities and enable it to issue a four-figure annual check to every man, woman, and child in the state. One of the reasons Palin has been a popular governor is that she added an extra twelve hundred dollars to this year’s check, bringing the per-person total to $3,269. 

McCain’s Still Running, Right?

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

These screen captures of Fox News and GOP.com (the official site of the Republican National Committee), both taken today, are remarkable in that they seem to be obsessed with Obama.  

Rarely pictured, or even mentioned, is their candidate, John McCain.

Foxnomccain 
Rncsite

Oh, my mistake.  McCain IS running, but he's got a new strategy.  According to Faux News, McCain is running as a Democrat…

McCainD_AZ

Well, that might help.  If you can't beat 'em…..

The Weather Factor

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Yes, the weather plays a factor in presidential elections.  Bad weather leads to lower voter turnout, which affects the outcome.

But it affects the outcome how?

Conventional wisdom and even one scientific study say that bad weather favors Republicans.  This is because:

Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans, they are more likely to walk to polling places or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might well discourage more Democrats than Republicans from showing up to vote, or from getting drenched while waiting to vote outside crowded urban polling places.

That may be true, but it's too generic to be helpful, particularly in close races.

Nor is it helpful in this particular election, where early voting is setting records throughout the country.  

For example, if Obama is far ahead in North Carolina early voting, bad weather on election day would probably be a GOOD thing for Obama, since it will help cement that lead. (For what it's worth, it looks like Election Day will be sunny throughout all of North Carolina.)

So pray for the rain or sun gods as needed.

Is The Race Tightening?

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Nate Silver says "no".  Not in any electoral college-altering way.  He adds:

In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition: 

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania. 

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

RELATED:  A new Pew survey shows Obama over McCain nationwide by an incredible 18 points (52% to 38%) among registered voters, and by 15 points (53% to 38%).

Perhaps more importantly, among those who have already voted, Obama leads McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%).

Compared to Pew's last survey, the latest one shows the race widening, not tightening.

ALSO RELATED:  The GOP is buying ad airtime in Montana and West Virginia, a sure sign that the McCain is in trouble.  Montana and West Virginia are among the most conservative states in the country.

The Great Escape

Ken AshfordRandom MusingsLeave a Comment

If you are, like me, the owner of a beagle or beagle mix, you'll know there are damned determined and clever dogs.  Seriously, you have to admire their cunning and daring-do.  Case in point…

Wicked

Ken AshfordTheatreLeave a Comment

A bootleg video of Kristen Chenowith performing "Popular" for the last time.  She goes off-script; I won't say any more….

Bonus YouTube video…  "Wickeder"

Senator Stevens (R-AK) Who Immortalized “The Internet Is A Series Of Tubes” Is Convicted

Ken AshfordCongress, Crime, RepublicansLeave a Comment

As the Wall Street Journal notes, this has some historical significance.  Sen. Stevens is a sitting senator, one of only five in all of history to be convicted of a crime, and the first since 1981.

Stevens is 84 years old — soon to be 85 on Nov. 15 — and is the longest-serving Republican with almost 40 years in the Senate representing Alaska.

He's been running for re-election this year, despite the trial.  His Democratic challenger has been edging ahead by 1 or 2 points in the polls, but Stevens' conviction will, I'm guessing, lock it up for the Democrat.  This means Democrats are one seat closer to the ideal 60 seats.

Here's Stevens from this past summer, pallin' around with a friend of his, who once served as director of the 527 group Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc.