What Happens To Palin After November 5th?

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Some are calling her the future of the Republican Party.  As much as I hope that is true (because it will only mean that the Republican Party will continue its slide into oblivion), I have to agree with Kevin Drum:

Sarah Palin will disappear into a well-deserved obscurity after the election is over. She is not a "comer." She is not the future of the Republican Party. She will not run for president in 2012. In fact, she won't maintain any kind of serious national political standing at all. At best, she'll spend the next few years being a celebrity starter at NASCAR races and speaking at Republican prayer breakfasts. At worst, she'll be an occasional butt of late night comics.

Palin is lazy, ill-informed, contemptuous of policy, and way too convinced that everybody in the country is dazzled by her folksy energy and thousand-watt smile. Yes, the diehard GOP base is rapturously in love with Palin and her media mockin' ways, but that's more a reflection on the base's future, not hers. Palin is a three-day wonder who's already a month past her sell-by date, and on November 5th she'll disappear to Wasilla for good.

That is undoubtedly true.  Palin was an ill-advised pick, selected for a single reason — to woo dissatisfied Clinton voters.  But that was sooooo two months ago, and the world has, quite literally, changed since then, as has the attitudes of the electorate.  Her shining moment was her convention speech where we met her, and she read off the teleprmopter.  From there, it's been downhill, as people have realized that this is a serious world with serious problems requiring serious people with serious solutions.  Folksy hockey mom schtick doesn't cut it.

But people who are already predicting that Palin will be the President in 2012 better stop and consider that before she gets there, she's going to have to run against other Republicans, some of them with conservative, and nearly all of them (even four years from now) more serious about the issues, more seasoned, and more knowledgeable.  And what will Palin do in the meantime, aside from governing the rather inconsequential state of Alaska?  How will she keep herself in the news?  Come to think of it, how will she FOLLOW the news, given her tendency to not read it?

Palin is a future answer to a future trivia question.  She's not even going to be as well-known as Quayle (who at least WAS Vice President for a while).  She's going to be more like, oh, Thomas Eagleton (oh, google it, for crying out loud!).

On Second Thought…

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

I know I said I wasn't going to early vote this year, but I lied.

North Carolina is shaping up to be a close state, and everyone is concerned about voting irregularities and other shennigans at the polls.  Both sides are lawyering up.  So, long story short, I'll be on shennanigan patrol on Election Day, which means I best vote before then.

Your Marching Orders

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Local InterestLeave a Comment

(1)  Go to a one-stop voting site.

(2)  Bring with you and present an acceptable form of identification.

(3)  Fill out a voter application form.

(4)  Vote Democratic!  But remember, voting straight ticket Democrat does not include the races for President or any of the judicial races, so don't forget Obama or any of your Democratic Judges.

* First, cast your vote for Obama for President.

* Then, vote the Straight Democratic ticket. Although if you vote straight party ticket you may miss voting for a qualified independant who is running unaffiliated. (In Moore County for example, we have Tony Berk running una for the District Attorney job because he feels that postition should not be politicized) AND you will have the satisfaction of filling in that bubble for each and every Democratic candidate. (As a few here have expressed)

* Finally, Flip the ballot over and vote for the Democratic judges on the reverse side.

[I usually early vote; it's quick, easy, and almost no lines.  But I think this year, I want to do it on the big day.]

Abandoning Your Child

Ken AshfordSex/Morality/Family ValuesLeave a Comment

An infant found in a hospital bathroom, a newborn baby left on a family's front porch, a baby boy discovered on the grounds of an elementary school….These are examples of baby abandonment, a phenomenon that has attracted increased attention in the United States over the past several years.

Statistics on the frequency of this are not available, but anecdotal evidence suggests that it has been on the rise.

State legislatures throughout the country have addressed the issue in a number of ways.  Obviously, criminalization of the practice is enforced, but that doesn't address the needs of the baby who gets abandoned (despite the law).  To address that latter concern, many state legislatures have adopted so-called "safe haven" laws, which permit a parent to abandon their child without prosecution.

The laws vary from state to state.  In North Carolina, for example, the child must be less than 7 days old, and must be relinquished to a health care professional (i.e., hospital), law enforcement person, or social worker.  If the parent does this, she will be immune from proscution for abandoment.  (Yes, it's ugly, but it's better than the alternative — we've all read about newborn babies being found in dumpsters).  Other states allow parental abandonment when the baby is as old as 1 year.

The State of Nebraska has come under the spotlight for its "safe haven" law because it has no age limit.  In other words, parents can give up custody of their teenagers, so long as it is done within the confines of the law (that is, the child is relinquished to a hospital or the like).

This has opened up a can of worms.  The law took effect this past July, and seven teenagers were relinquished to the state over the summer. 

The controversial policy went to a new level when a Michigan couple dropped off their adopted but unwanted 13 year old son in Nebraska.  Another out-of-state teen has also been relinquished in Nebraska.

[Just a little bit of free legal advice here: if you live outside of Nebraska, don't think you can abandon your child in Nebraska and be protected under Nebraska's "safe haven" laws.  You can't.  You'll be subject to your own state's law on child/teen abandonment, as the Michigan couple has found out.]

Many believe that Nebraska screwed up by having no age limitation for the "safe haven" law.  Others think that Nebraska is forging new moral ground, because it protects unwanted children of ALL ages, many of whom are subject to incestual molestation or child abuse.  (My cousin, Nebraska State Senator Brad Ashford, who voted for the law, falls into the latter category).

The Nebraska approach definitely forges new ground, and the law will no doubt be scrutinized as more data is gathered about its consequences. 

But it raises an interesting question: "Should the state force parents to keep their unwanted children, even if those children are teenagers?"

For me, I think any answer should be based on one overriding factor — what is in the best interest of the minor child.  It seems to me — and I'm just spitballing here — that if your parents don't WANT their teen, that teen is probably better off in the long term, psychologically and emotionally, without them.  It seems that the alternative — foster parents (or a foster home) — is infinitely preferable to being raised in a home where your parents simply don't give a crap.  (And obviously, if there IS child abuse present, it's a no-brainer).

But what of the parents?  The ones who legally relinquish their teenager?  Well, it might be easy to cast aspersions on their motive, and wish upon them a special place in hell. 

But imagine this scenario: Jimmy is ten years old, and his parents die in an auto accident.  Thereafter, he is raised by his grandmother.  He has no other relatives.  Years later, when Jimmy is sixteen, his grandmother suffers from a serious stroke.  She can no longer take care of Jimmy.  Lacking the funds and resources to engage in the long drawn-out process of private adoption, Jimmy's grandmother takes advantage of the safe haven law and "dumps" Jimmy at the local hospital.

Any problem with that?  I see none.  Works to everyone's benefit, including that of society.

[For a different view, read this rant]

I suspect that Nebraska is going to have to revisit its law, and possibly "up" the requirements for child relinquishment as the child gets older, if for no other reason than to curb the possibility (real or imagined) of widespread teen "dumping".

McCain’s Connections To Convicted “Terrorists”

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

What if I told you that McCain has had a "questionable association" with someone who:

  • is a convicted felon for, among other things, trying to subvert the rule of law
  • plotted to kill a journalist
  • plotted to kill a former CIA agent who was assisting the federal government in an investigation
  • plotted to bomb the Brookings Institute
  • has given advice on how to kill public officials (specifically, shooting them in the head because they might be wearing flak jackets)
  • has contributed thousands of dollars to the McCain campaign
  • has hosted a fundraise for McCain in his home

Last night on David Letterman, McCain said that he was "not in any… embarrassed to know" this man.

You would think that would cause some concern….

Mccain_eyebrows

Kinda Like The New Darren On Bewitched

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Having learned that Joe “the Plumber” Wurzelbacher isn't really a licensed plumber, and doesn't bother to pay his taxes anyway (nice vetting, McCain campaign — again), they've gone back to the drawing board.  Think Progress reports:

The campaign is holding a conference call today with Russ Deker, an individual the McCain camp is calling “a Missouri ‘Joe the Plumber.’”

So America, meet ROSS the plumber (but you can call him "Joe" if you want).

One of these days, they'll get it right…..

A Little Levity

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

McCain and Obama attend the Alfred E. Smith dinner, and offer some self-effacing and topical political humor.  A nice break from the nastiness of the campaign:

Oh, Fine. Let’s Talk More About Joe The (Unlicensed) Plumber

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

The New York Times has a nice analysis of the taxes that Joe Wurzelbacher would pay under the Obama and McCain plans:

1017-nat-webJOE 

So it looks like Joe would do better under either candidate, but slightly better under McCain.  Not surprising, since McCain gives greater tax benefits to those whose income is greater than $250,000 (which the above scenario assumes).  Of course, if Joe's plumbing business does less than $250,000 a year (which is likely — his boss's business, which he intends to but, doesn't make that much).

Of course, Joe has bigger more immediate problems to face:

He doesn't have a plumbing license required by the city of Toledo to practice, according to a staffer with the Toledo Division of Building Inspection. Wurzelbacher, who now works for Newell Plumbing & Heating Co., said the owner, Al Newell, has a plumbing license and that "because he works for someone else, he doesn't need a license."

But even that's not true, according to the Toledo Division of Building Inspection. Wurzelbacher can't legally do plumbing work without a license, regardless of his boss's certification.

A staff person with the Toledo Division of Building Inspection told On Call this afternoon that her division will contact Wurzelbacher to notify him that he can't work without a license.

"We're trying to track him down," she said.

According to the report, Joe…

registered as an apprentice with the Ohio State Apprenticeship Council in November 2003, according to Dennis Evans, spokesman with the Department of Job and Family Services. Records show his training, which was sponsored by A & W Newell Co. of Toledo, should have wrapped last year.

"We don't have a record of completion," Evans said. "All we know is that he registered in the program and has gone through to the point where we should have record of completion, but we don't."

So he's not a real plumber; he just plays one on TV.  So much for the new poster boy of the right.

Wake Me Up When Its Over

Ken AshfordRed Sox & Other SportsLeave a Comment

I come home.  It's 11 o'clock.  Red Sox are down 7-0 in the 7th.

Talk about a post-season implosion.

Eh, we'll get 'em next year.

OH-ME-OF-LITTLE-FAITH UPDATE:  No sooner than five minutes after I posted the above, then the Red Sxo score 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th with two outs.  Ortiz, who has been lackluster in this series so far, belted a 3 run homer.  Looks like we (almost) have a ballgame.

UPDATE AT 11:30 pm:  Holy shit, this is a good game.  J.D. Drew hits a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth to make it 7-6.  Now I really can't go to bed.
 
NEXT MORNING UPDATE:  Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!  It was one of those Fenway games that they'll be talking about years from now…..

The Latest On Me

Ken AshfordPersonalLeave a Comment

For those who have inquired….

First of all, thank you for your concern.

Secondly, I am going to have colon surgery at some point.  The date keeps getting pushed back.  The damage is serious, but fortunately (and this is the good news learned this week) not widespread.  This means the surgery can be done laproscopically.

But the date is looking like sometime in January or February.  In one sense, this is good: it means the doctors don't feel a sense of urgency (technically, I've been taken out of the Trauma Unit's files as of this week).  On the other hand, it just means that this whole mish-a-goss (not a real word) is being prolonged.

Anyway, I'm mentally taking a respite from the whole issue, to the extent that my innards will allow me.

Debate Thoughts: Conservative Pundits Fail To Understand That Not Everyone In America Is A Conservative

Ken AshfordElection 20081 Comment

Conservative strategists urged McCain to take of the gloves at last night's debate.  That he did.

Conservative strategists urged McCain to finally mention Bill Ayers at last night's debate.  That he did.

Conservative strategists urged McCain to mention the "ugly" attacks on him by people like John Lewis, at last night's debate.  That he did.

Conservative strategists urged McCain to touch upon hot-button social issues, like abortion, at last night's debate.  That he did.

So conservative strategists are very very happy today with McCain's performance, as are conservative voters.

Slight problem, though.  In order to win this election, McCain needs to win people other than conservatives (who now represent a small minority of voters).

In other words, how does playing to McCain's base — who are voting for McCain anway — translate into a game-changing strategy?  The answer is, of course, that it doesn't.

I get the sense that conservatives, like the Bush Administration itself, live in a self-validating bubble of Fox News, NRO, and Rush Limbaugh.  They don't understand that the bubble is their world of choice, but not the world.  They don't understand that for every one of them, there are five people not in that bubble, who are unpersuaded (if not outright turned off) by the very strategy that conservatives recommend of McCain.

You would think that, after seeing the flash polls last night and this morning showing an overwhelming Obama win among undecided voters, that conservative strategists and pundits might finally realize that the path to victory doesn't come from playing to the right fringe (or, for that matter, the left fringe).  It comes from having broad appeal, something Obama has mastered, and McCain has avoided.

But no such luck.  Conservative pundits simply can't understand why McCain is losing when he gets all conservative in America's face.   But the answer is quite simple: America simply isn't as conservative as it once was.  And given the governance of conservatives for the past eight years, and the current economic situation, "conservative" is, to many, an even uglier word than "liberal".  The Palin strategy, which not only includes the selection of Palin as VP but the rhetoric of Palin, simply failed.  Pure and simple.

State Of The Race With 19 Days Left

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

According to 538, these are the battleground states as they exist NOW (to be a battleground state, a candidate's lead must be < 5 percent, according to the average of polls):

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States where Obama is leading are in blue; McCain-leading states are in red.

But the news is this… even if Obama loses ALL the "Mid-Oct Battlegrounds", he still has — get ready for this – 286 electoral votes, putting him over the 270 needed to win.

Is it "over"?  Nope.  Lots can happen, even in 2.5 weeks.  But it sure smells like victory.