Palin Preparing More Material For Tina Fey

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Stumped by a slow ball question (what specific newspapers and magazines does she read…), Sarah Palin bluffs and gets defensive about Alaska not being a foreign country (which is beside the point…):

UPDATE:  The rightwing brainiacs at The Corner have figured it out:

The e-mails are coming in. Obviously the governor of Alaska reads. And what it looked liked to me is the governor of Alaska decided she wasn’t going to play along with Couric. Whatever she answered would be scrutinized for the next 24 hours for what she included and left off. So instead she let Katie badger her a little.

And now the ticket is in yet a better position to run against the media.

Who knew a McCain ticket would ever be in a position to do such a thing?

Indeed.  Who knew that Palin would pull the old "I-won’t-tell-you-what-I-read-or-even-give-one-example" ploy.  Confound it!

And the media!  Well, they just fell into her trap!  She’s a genius, I tell ya!

She answers "all of them".  Funny how not one of those many, many newspapers ever mentioned the Bush Doctrine.

God I Hate House Republicans

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & DeficitLeave a Comment

I really do.

UPDATE: Yeah, some Dems are to blame, too.

But then again, the Democrat side said they would deliver half their caucus, and they over-delivered.  The Republicans needed to do the same, and they failed miserably.

UPDATE #2:  Should the Democrats, who are in majority, just demogogue this situation and write a progressive bill and not wait for Republicans to come to the table?  Krugman considers it.

UPDATE #3:  McCain-Palin senior policy adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin:

"From the minute John McCain suspended his campaign and arrived in Washington to address this crisis, he was attacked by the Democratic leadership: Senators Obama and Reid, Speaker Pelosi and others. Their partisan attacks were an effort to gain political advantage during a national economic crisis. By doing so, they put at risk the homes, livelihoods and savings of millions of American families."Barack Obama failed to lead, phoned it in, attacked John McCain, and refused to even say if he supported the final bill."Just before the vote, when the outcome was still in doubt, Speaker Pelosi gave a strongly worded partisan speech and poisoned the outcome. "This bill failed because Barack Obama and the Democrats put politics ahead of country."

Shorter version: Republicans got their feelings hurt by Pelosi’s speech, so they decided to place the entire economy of the country in jeopardy.

Crybaby

P.S.  Boehner and Blunt just said the same thing — it was Pelosi’s partisan speech that "poisoned the well".

Sweet Jesus.

UPDATE #4:  What exactly was so poisonous about Pelosi’s speech?  And listen to Barney Frank…

UPDATE #5:  Yeah, panic has ensued, and people are stocking up on canned goods for the coming apocolypse.  One of the biggest gainers on the NYSE was Campbell’s Soup

Campbellstock

Looking Good

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Here’s one analysis:

The current prediction is Obama 375, McCain 163 with Virginia as the state that puts Obama over the top and West Virginia as the closest state. Obama’s surge in the national polls kicks Missouri and North Carolina over to the blue side. West Virginia is about the only additional state Obama could win unless the McCain campaign gets even worse. If Obama maintains his current national lead, new state polls will eventually show the shift as well. Tip of the hat to pollster.com for the compendium of links to polls.

Obama Base (202 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Wisconsin (Obama +9.5) 212 EV
Michigan (Obama +9.1) 229 EV
Colorado (Obama +8.0) 238 EV
Pennsylvania (Obama +7.8) 259 EV
Minnesota (Obama +7.8) 269 EV
Virginia (Obama +5.2) 282 EV
New Hampshire (Obama +5.1) 286 EV
Nevada (Obama +5.1) 291 EV
Ohio (Obama +4.3) 311 EV
Indiana (Obama +4.2) 322 EV
Florida (Obama +3.2) 349 EV
Missouri (Obama +2.1) 360 EV
North Carolina (Obama +1.9) 375 EV
West Virginia (McCain +1.4) 163 EV
Montana (McCain +6.8) 158 EV

McCain Base (155 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today’s conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

Walk-All-Over-Ya Struggling

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & Deficit1 Comment

I think I’ll make a run on my bank.

UPDATE:  And then there’s this…

I’ve received phone calls in the last hour from two economists I respect, one of them Larry Lindsey, the other in a position where he’d prefer not to be named. Both have government experience, neither is alarmist by nature, and they say this:

The huge European bank Fortis is apparently about to fail. The ripple effect on the American banking system could be disastrous, with bank runs, liquidity crises, and stock sell offs possible Monday. Wachovia may well fail next week. As Larry put it, this really will be 1933 soon if we don’t move rapidly to stabilize the banking system.

And here’s the bad news: the current bailout bill, whatever its merits and likelihood of passage, does nothing to address this.

Congress should pass by Monday simple legislation doing two things:

1. Giving the FDIC authority to provide unlimited deposit insurance through the FDIC for transaction accounts in banks.

2. Authorizing the Secretary of the Treasury to provide unlimited protection of principal in money market funds through the Treasury’s exchange stabilization fund.

Quick Late-night Impressions Of The Debate

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

No clear "winner".

Obama was better on style and demeanor.

McCain was better, especially on the second half, on "points", but Obama was toe-to-toe with him most of the way, and refused to let McCain’s spun "facts" go unanswered.  In a debate largely about foreign policy — McCain’s bailiwick — that might actually be a "win" for Obama.  In fact, McCain’s taunts that Obama "didn’t understand" or was "naive" seemed to fall flat.

Some early polling of undecidedsfrom CBS News:

40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw.

68% of these voters think Obama would make the right decision about the economy. 41% think McCain would.

49% of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. 55% think McCain would.

UPDATE:  Ezra Klein writes:

The first poll I saw tonight was CBS’s analysis of 500 undecided voters. In that poll, 40 percent gave the debate to Obama, 22 percent gave the debate to McCain. Then Frank Luntz’s focus group gave it to Obama. Then the GQR focus group gave it to Obama. Then CNN’s poll gave it to Obama. I haven’t seen any poll or focus group that scored it for McCain. So Obama won.

The Problem With The House GOP Proposal

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & DeficitLeave a Comment

As I understand it, the GOP proposal is that instead of getting an equity share in the companies that have bad debt, we simply insure those bad debts.  The distressed company holding a troubled mortgage-based asset gets a taxpayer-funded insurance policy for the full value of the asset in exchange for a small premium payment.

Of course, this is exactly what the mega-insurer AIG did, and look what happened to them.

All in all, it means that if these distressed companies get back on their feet, the taxpayer does not benefit from the upside (although the companies will).  And if the distressed companies fail, then "we" have to pay the insurance, which will be astronomical, and so we suffer the downside.

Makes no sense, but perhaps I am missing something.

Dems And Reps Reach A Deal “In Principle”

Ken AshfordEconomy & Jobs & DeficitLeave a Comment

Full text of agreement:

1. Taxpayer Protection

    a. Requires Treasury Secretary to set standards to prevent excessive or inappropriate executive compensation for participating companies

    b. To minimize risk to the American taxpayer, requires that any transaction include equity sharing

    c. Requires most profits to be used to reduce the national debt

2. Oversight and Transparency

    a. Treasury Secretary is prohibited from acting in an arbitrary or capricious manner or in any way that is inconsistent with existing law

    b. Establishes strong oversight board with cease and desist authority

    c. Requires program transparency and public accountability through regular, detailed reports to Congress disclosing exercise of the Treasury Secretary’s authority

    d. Establishes an independent Inspector General to monitor the use of the Treasury Secretary’s authority

    e. Requires GAO audits to ensure proper use of funds, appropriate internal controls, and to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse

3. Homeownership Preservation

    a. Maximize and coordinate efforts to modify mortgages for homeowners at risk of foreclosure

    b. Requires loan modifications for mortgages owned or controlled by the Federal Government

    c. Directs a percentage of future profits to the Affordable Housing Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund to meet America’s housing needs

4. Funding Authority

    a. Treasury Secretary’s request for $700 billion is authorized, with $250 billion available immediately and an additional $100 billion released upon his or her certification that funds are needed

    b. final $350 billion is subject to a Congressional joint resolution of disapproval

Oh, Give It Up Already, Sarah

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

This one is particularly painful:

COURIC: You’ve cited Alaska’s proximity to Russia as part of your foreign policy experience. What did you mean by that? 
PALIN: That Alaska has a very narrow maritime border between a foreign country, Russia, and on our other side, the land– boundary that we have with– Canada. It– it’s funny that a comment like that was– kind of made to– cari– I don’t know, you know? Reporters– 
COURIC: Mock? 
PALIN: Yeah, mocked, I guess that’s the word, yeah. 
COURIC: Explain to me why that enhances your foreign policy credentials. 
PALIN: Well, it certainly does because our– our next door neighbors are foreign countries. They’re in the state that I am the executive of. And there in Russia– 
COURIC: Have you ever been involved with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians? 
PALIN: We have trade missions back and forth. We– we do– it’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where– where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is– from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to– to our state.

Yikes.  Oh, yeah… as to the bailout she said that reducing taxes has to be accompanied by tax reductions.  It’s buried in here somewhere:

Hmmmm.  That answer reminds me of this….