North Carolina – The Presidential Race

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Local InterestLeave a Comment

It looked for a while like NC might become a swing state.  But the Palin-mania did well here, and it looks — right now — like NC is safely in the McCain column.

BUT… not so fast.

Let’s start on August 2, 2008, with the following numbers  of registered voters

Democrats: 2,669,616 
Republican: 1,937,735

And then the week by week additions:

Week  Democratic  Republican

08/09   3,833        709 
08/16   4,354        531 
08/23   2,188        275 
08/30   3,410        688 
09/06   4,851      1,309 
09/13   7,307      2,942 

Going back to the first week of 2008, the two main parties have added the following number of voters:

Democrats +184,113 
Republicans +24,614

That’s encouraging, assuming the enthusiasm for McCain wanes as Election Day gets closer.

Lying As A Stategy

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

A nice NYT article about McCain’s new "strategy" of lying through his teeth.

Mr. McCain came into the race promoting himself as a truth teller and has long publicly deplored the kinds of negative tactics that helped sink his candidacy in the Republican primaries in 2000. But his strategy now reflects a calculation advisers made this summer — over the strenuous objections of some longtime hands who helped him build his "Straight Talk" image — to shift the campaign more toward disqualifying Mr. Obama in the eyes of voters.

"I think the McCain folks realize if they can get this thing down in the mud, drag Obama into the mud, that’s where they have the best advantage to win," said Matthew Dowd, who worked with many top McCain campaign advisers when he was President Bush’s chief strategist in the 2004 campaign, but who has since had a falling out with the White House. "If they stay up at 10,000 feet, they don’t."

***

[Don] Sipple, the Republican strategist, voiced concern that Mr. McCain’s approach could backfire. "Any campaign that is taking liberty with the truth and does it in a serial manner will end up paying for it in the end," he said. "But it’s very unbecoming to a political figure like John McCain whose flag was planted long ago in ground that was about ‘straight talk’ and integrity."

The media blowback for this McCain’s strategy is relatively strong.  The question is: will people listen?  The McCain camp is betting not (and they’ll probably play the "media is against us" card).  The problem is, it might work.

St. Petersburg Times Uses The “L” Word

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Important editorial, not only because it’s on the money, but because it’s in the crucial swing state of Florida:

This nation is facing real challenges on the economy, health care, jobs and the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. There are significant differences between how Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain would address them. But McCain’s recent campaign ads suggest the most vital issues are whether Obama wanted to teach sex education to kindergarten children and whether he derided the Republican’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, by talking about lipstick on a pig.

McCain’s straight talk has become a toxic mix of lies and double-speak. It is leaving a permanent stain on his reputation for integrity, and it is a short-term strategy that eventually will backfire with the very types of independent-thinking voters that were so attracted to him.

The sex education ad says that Obama supported "comprehensive sex education" for kindergarten children. Graphics then appear with a voice-over saying: "Learning about sex before learning to read?"

The facts: Obama, while a state lawmaker in Illinois, supported a measure to provide older students with age and developmentally appropriate sex education. Younger children, such as those kindergarten-age, would be taught "age-appropriate" things such as how to protect themselves from sexual predators. The legislation was widely backed by the state PTA and the Illinois Public Health Association. Parents could choose to opt out of any instruction for their children.

But in McCain’s campaign playbook, this responsible legislation becomes fodder for a grotesque distortion as a way to instill fear in voters.

As to the lipstick-on-a-pig controversy, McCain’s campaign has purposely twisted the way Obama used that expression in a recent speech in Virginia. A McCain campaign ad claims that Obama was directing an insult to Palin who, during the Republican National Convention, characterized hockey moms like herself as pit bulls with lipstick.

The truth: Obama used the phrase, which he had used before, to attack McCain’s claim that he’ll reform Washington while retaining the policies of President Bush. After using the lipstick-on-a-pig phrase, Obama said, "You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It’s still going to stink after eight years."

McCain’s faux chivalrous outrage over Obama’s purported insult is beneath him. He has been a serious public servant willing to say unpopular truths when he thought it best for the country, but he’s more than willing in this election to put his name on campaign lies. The leader who says he would rather lose an election than lose a war now risks losing his reputation in an attempt to win the White House.

One More Time — The Tax Policies

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS
Here’s how the average tax bill could change in 2009 if either John McCain’s or Barack Obama’s tax proposals were fully in place.
MCCAIN OBAMA
Income Avg. tax bill Avg. tax bill
Over $2.9M -$269,364 +$701,885
$603K and up -$45,361 +$115,974
$227K-$603K -$7,871 +$12
$161K-$227K -$4,380 -$2,789
$112K-$161K -$2,614 -$2,204
$66K-$112K -$1,009 -$1,290
$38K-$66K -$319 -$1,042
$19K-$38K -$113 -$892
Under $19K -$19 -$567

Source:The Tax Policy Center

So when McCain-Palin say "He will raise your taxes", they’re only talking about people making $227,000 and over.  For most Americans, Obama will make your taxes lower than McCain will.

Palin Links Iraq To 9/11

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

The Washington Post reports:

Gov. Sarah Palin linked the war in Iraq with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, telling an Iraq-bound brigade of soldiers that included her son that they would "defend the innocent from the enemies who planned and carried out and rejoiced in the death of thousands of Americans."

Uh, Sarah?

The September 11 Commission said there was no link.

The bipartisan Senate report said there was no link.

The CIA said there was no link.

The Pentagon said there was no link.

Even Bush finally admitted that there was no link

Well, Now She’s Just Out And Out Lying

Ken AshfordElection 2008, Environment & Global Warming & EnergyLeave a Comment

On global warming, this time:

MORE PALIN FUN —  AP reports:

Pressed about what insights into recent Russian actions she gained by living in Alaska, Palin told Gibson, "They’re our next-door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska."

Riiiight.  And I can look up and see the stars and moon.  That makes me an astronaut I guess.

Stumped

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Sarah bluffs her way through a foreign policy question on "the Bush doctrine".  She doesn’t know what it means, even after he gives her a hint.

I’m not sure what makes her a unique politician.  She’s slick! the way she bluffs through that.

Of course, there’s a reason she doesn’t know what he’s talking about.  This is Sarah in December 2006:

"I’ve been so focused on state government, I haven’t really focused much on the war in Iraq."

** UPDATE **  In a piece too long and perfect to truncate, James Fallows explains why Palin’s non-recognition of the Bush Doctrine matters.

She also took the position (somewhat craftily) of A-okaying an unnnnounced strike against terrorists in Pakistan.  Unfortunately, that’s not the same position as McCain — it’s Obama’s position, and McCain has been attacking Obama about that.

Ooops.

Publius sums it up nicely:

You could almost hear her mental gears grinding, trying to retrieve the talking points and forcing them into her answers. Nothing came from her — or if it did, she certainly fooled me. Reagan and Clinton — governors both — would never have appeared that ignorant, largely because they weren’t. They were engaged with the issues of their day and wrestled with them intellectually. Today’s interview reflected an unprepared, uninformed person cast into the spotlight far before her time.

Sorkin To Write Movie About…. Facebook?

Ken AshfordPopular CultureLeave a Comment

How did I miss this?

Screenwriter Aaron Sorkin has agreed to make a film about the founders of social networking site Facebook.

Sorkin, who created US TV drama The West Wing and wrote the Tom Hanks movie Charlie Wilson’s War, has even opened a Facebook account to aid his research.

"I figured a good first step in my preparation would be finding out what Facebook is, so I’ve started this page," he wrote.

He said the project was a joint venture between Sony and producer Scott Rudin.

Sony has confirmed the as-yet-untitled project is in development.

I like Sorkin and I like Facebook, but this sounds like a dull movie.

Where Are The Ashfords?

Ken AshfordPersonalLeave a Comment

APM = Ashfords Per Million

Top Countries

Country APM
UNITED KINGDOM 95.51
AUSTRALIA 71.84
NEW ZEALAND 68.67
CANADA 40.8
UNITED STATES 27.76
LUXEMBOURG 8.5
IRELAND 3.77
DENMARK 0.98
BELGIUM 0.86
SWITZERLAND 0.64

Top Regions

Area Name APM
WEST MIDLANDS , UNITED KINGDOM 205.79
SOUTH WEST , UNITED KINGDOM 193.53
EAST ANGLIA , UNITED KINGDOM 185.88
NORTHERN TERRITORY , AUSTRALIA 168.34
WALES , UNITED KINGDOM 154.79
MISSISSIPPI , UNITED STATES 143.45
QUEENSLAND , AUSTRALIA 100.86
LOUISIANA , UNITED STATES 95
OKLAHOMA , UNITED STATES 90.08
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY , AUSTRALIA 87.94
Top Cities
City
BEMBRIDGE , SOUTH EAST , UNITED KINGDOM
APPIN , SCOTLAND , UNITED KINGDOM
BILSTON , WEST MIDLANDS , UNITED KINGDOM
BAGILLT & FLINT , WALES , UNITED KINGDOM
BATHGATE , SCOTLAND , UNITED KINGDOM
AIKEN , SOUTH CAROLINA , UNITED STATES
ASCOT , SOUTH EAST , UNITED KINGDOM
BILLERICAY , SOUTH EAST , UNITED KINGDOM
ASHFORD & SURREY , SOUTH EAST , UNITED KINGDOM
BACUP , NORTH WEST , UNITED KINGDOM

Source: World Names Profiler

Sick Of Lipstick

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Steve Benen gets it right:

When these manufactured campaign controversies come up, there’s a fascinating dynamic in which the various actors play their roles. When it comes to the "lipstick" stupidity, for example, McCain’s job is to push the story, Obama’s job is to dismiss it, and the media’s job is pretend it’s worth talking about. All three know exactly how mind-numbingly foolish this is.

Seriously, we can’t be electing a president this way.  This is ridiculous.

Who do I blame?  The media, mostly.  They’re the gatekeepers of what we talk about (and not talk about).

And I worry about the millions of Americans who actually think this is relevant.  Makes me want to move to another country.

Not A Pretty Day

Ken AshfordLocal InterestLeave a Comment

Bit of a bloodbath here in my office building:

Reynolds American Inc. will cut 570 full-time jobs within its company and its largest subsidiary, R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company, under a restructuring program announced this morning.

Virtually every Reynolds person who I work with on my floor was let go this morning.