The Ashford Zone Blog

Lot of stories covering this, but this one spells it out nicely:

They said the first was an outlier. The second, a fluke. But after losing their third seat this year in a special election, House Republicans faced the possibility on Wednesday that if they don’t repair their image with voters, they could be in for another rough November.

A Democratic pick-up streak that started with Rep. Bill Foster’s upset victory in the March election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) crested Tuesday night, when Democrat Travis Childers won a solidly Republican open seat in Mississippi.

The GOP spent one-fifth of its available national party cash for House races on the Mississippi seat. Vice President Dick Cheney campaigned there. President George W. Bush and presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain pitched in with automated phone calls. Their candidate lost anyway. Meanwhile, reeling House Republicans unveiled a new slogan this week–"Change you deserve" –only to watch Democrats gleefully note that it is already used to market an antidepressant.

Several House Republicans say the losses reveal a voter disconnect with their party, rooted in dissatisfaction with Bush, which GOP candidates will have to repair district-by-district this fall. Some, including McCain and several members of the Illinois congressional delegation, appear to believe that to "re-brand" the Republican Party, they must first distance themselves from it.

"What we’ve got right now is a deficiency in our message and a loss of confidence by the American people that we will do what we say we are going to do," Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a conference call with reporters.

Freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) likened the climate to 2006, when Democrats surged to control of the House and Senate. "There’s a lot of dissatisfaction with the direction of the country," he said. "No incumbent should underestimate the attitude of the American people, Republican or Democrat."

The parties share power in Washington. Polls show Bush and Congress faring dismally in voter approval ratings, driven by anxieties from a slowing economy and continued dissatisfaction with the Iraq War. But politicians and analysts say it appears, at least at this point in the campaign, that voter frustration is hurting Republicans more.

Chalk up part of that to recruiting, analysts say. The three House seats to flip to Democratic this spring all lie in districts Bush carried in 2004. The Democrats who won them all ran as moderate agents of change who support troop withdrawal from Iraq.

The New York Times adds this morning

Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and former leader of his party’s Congressional campaign committee, issued a dire warning that the Republican Party had been severely damaged, in no small part because of its identification with President Bush. Mr. Davis said that, unless Republican candidates changed course, they could lose 20 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.

“They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate,” Mr. Davis said in a memorandum. “The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006.”

Cry me a river.

NYT:

At a rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Wednesday evening, John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama, who was on the stage with him, to be the Democratic nominee for president.

Sounding a theme of a nation divided into parts by walls, Mr. Edwards said, “The reason I am here tonight is that Democratic voters in America have made their choice and so have I.”

Mr. Edwards then went on to say, “There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to tear down that wall and make one America, Barack Obama.”

Mr. Obama, who had introduced Mr. Edwards as “one of the great leaders we have in the Democratic Party, ” responded by saying he was grateful to him for coming to Michigan and giving his endorsement.

Mr. Obama also noted how Mr. Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth, had emphasized health care as an issue that is of primary concern, then said it would be a major issue in his administration.

The endorsement comes at a time when the appeal of Mr. Obama appears to be lagging among white, blue-collar voters, a group to which Mr. Edwards openly appealed.

Mr. Edwards’s endorsement also brings in tow 19 convention delegates he won in early party selections. He could certainly urge them to give their support to Mr. Obama, though they would not be obligated by party rules to do so.

Maybe not a knockout blow to Hillary, but damn close….

C’mon Gore — you’re next….

Monty Python meets Hillary Clinton

Here’s the sad part:

2:57 p.m., Yeager Airport, Charleston, W.Va.: A steep descent brings Clinton’s plane to Charleston’s hilltop airport. After an appropriate wait, she steps from the plane and pretends to wave to a crowd of supporters; in fact, she is waving to 10 photographers underneath the airplane’s wing. She pretends to spot an old friend in the crowd, points and gives another wave; in fact, she is waving at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.

Hmmmm.  The Jimmy Smits character on The West Wing, who ran for president against a moderate Republican, was based on a then-unknown young charismatic minority soon-to-be Senator from Illinois named…. Barack Obama:

Devotees of the West Wing have been talking about it for weeks: the uncanny similarity between the fictional presidential contest that dominated the final seasons of the acclaimed TV show and the real-life drama of this year’s election.

Both the real and imagined campaigns have centred on a young, charismatic candidate from an ethnic minority, daring to take on an establishment workhorse with a promise to transcend race and heal America’s partisan divide.

But there’s a twist.

For what those West Wing fans stunned by the similarity between the fictitious Matthew Santos and the real-life Barack Obama have not known is that the resemblance is no coincidence. When the West Wing scriptwriters first devised their fictitious presidential candidate in the late summer of 2004, they modelled him in part on a young Illinois politician – not yet even a US senator – by the name of Barack Obama.

"I drew inspiration from him in drawing this character," West Wing writer and producer Eli Attie told the Guardian. "When I had to write, Obama was just appearing on the national scene. He had done a great speech at the convention [which nominated John Kerry] and people were beginning to talk about him."

Attie, who served as chief speechwriter to Al Gore during the ill-fated 2000 campaign and who wrote many of the key Santos episodes of the West Wing, put in a call to Obama aide David Axelrod.

"I said, ‘Tell me about this guy Barack Obama.’"

With the Latino actor Jimmy Smits already cast for the show, Attie was especially keen to know how rising star Obama approached the question of his race. Axelrod’s answers helped inform Santos’s approach to his own Hispanic identity.

"Some of Santos’s insistence on not being defined by his race, his pride in it even as he rises above it, came from that," Attie said.

The scriptwriter also borrowed from Obama’s life the notion of a superstar candidate. "After that convention speech, Obama’s life changed. He was mobbed wherever he went. He was more than a candidate seeking votes: people were seeking him. Some of Santos’s celebrity aura came from that."

The result is a bizarre case of art imitating life – only for life to imitate art back again.

In the TV show, Santos begins as the rank outsider up against a national figure famous for standing at the side of a popular Democratic president. There are doubts about Santos’s inexperience, having served just a few years in Congress, and about his ability to persuade voters to back an ethnic minority candidate – even as his own ethnic group harbour suspicions that he might not identify with them sufficiently.

But the soaring power of his rhetoric, his declaration that the old divisions belong in the past and his sheer magnetism, ensure that he comes from behind in a fiercely close primary campaign and draws level with his once all-commanding opponent. Every aspect of that storyline has come true for Barack Obama. Axelrod, now chief strategist for the Obama campaign, recently joked in an email to Attie: "We’re living your scripts!"

What’s more, the West Wing had the Republicans choose between a Christian preacher – a pre-echo of Mike Huckabee – and an older, maverick senator from the American west whose liberal positions on some issues had earned the distrust of the party’s conservative base: a dead ringer for John McCain.

In the West Wing, the McCain figure emerges comfortably as the party’s choice. Apparently the character was not based on the current Republican frontrunner, but was simply a function of the casting of Alan Alda.

"It was always an inside joke on the West Wing that the show had a prophetic quality," recalls Attie, now a writer and producer of House, starring Hugh Laurie.

Various political scenarios sketched out on the programme would often materialise within weeks of airing. But the 2008 campaign, Attie concedes, is in an entirely different league.

There are small differences of course. Santos had a white wife – stressing, says Attie, Santos’s standing as a "post-racial figure" – while Michelle Obama is African-American. Ms Obama is the more outspoken, but with two young children each, both are equally photogenic.

Obama aides will be hoping that the West Wing’s prophetic streak holds: Santos eventually emerged as the Democratic nominee from a brokered convention – and went on to win the presidency.

Here’s why:

Speaking to voters in the Appalachian state, she said: “All the kitchen table issues that everybody talks to me about are ones that the next president can actually do something about, if he actually cares about it.” Realising her faux pas, she added: “More likely if she cares about it!”

The GOP has unveiled a new slogan.  They are branding their party can candidates as offering "THE CHANGE YOU DESERVE".

Nice going, morons.  Your campaign slogan is already copyrighted as an advertisement for an anti-depressant:

What the GOP doesn’t seem to realize, because they are idiots, is that "the change you deserve" is the registered advertising slogan of Effexor XR, a drug that many of you might have started taking as a result of all the…you know — terrorism.

Effexor, also known as Venlafaxine, is approved for the treatment "of depression, generalized anxiety disorder, social anxiety disorder, and panic disorder in adults." Its common side effects are very much in keeping with the world the House Republicans have striven to build: nausea, apathy, constipation, fatigue, vertigo, sexual dysfunction, sweating, memory loss, and – and I swear I am not making this up – "electric shock-like sensations also called ‘brain zaps."

From First Read:

Barack Obama has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the NBC NEWS superdelegate count with the endorsement of Hawaii’s Dolly Strazar. This is his second of the day and puts him now officially over the top, 277-276.5.

Obama has now picked up 21 superdelegates since last Tuesday’s contests in North Carolina and Indiana. Clinton has picked up 1.5

The NBC NEWS delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Obama 277, Clinton 276.5
TOTAL: Obama 1,867, Clinton 1,702.5