Something disconcerting about a 3 week old resting on a "Debbie Does Dallas" T-shirt:
But seriously, lots of pic here.
The Mortality Rate Of Iraq And Afghan Wars
Something to think about when you consider the U.S. casualty count.
Thomas Insel — director of the National Institute of Mental Health and the U.S. government’s top psychiatric researcher — said today that “the number of suicides among veterans of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may exceed the combat death toll because of inadequate mental health care.” Bloomberg reports:
Insel echoed a Rand Corporation study published last month that found about 20 percent of returning U.S. soldiers have post-traumatic stress disorder or depression, and only half of them receive treatment. About 1.6 million U.S. troops have fought in the two wars since October 2001, the report said. About 4,560 soldiers had died in the conflicts as of today, the Defense Department reported on its Web site.
Based on those figures and established suicide rates for similar patients who commonly develop substance abuse and other complications of post-traumatic stress disorder, “it’s quite possible that the suicides and psychiatric mortality of this war could trump the combat deaths,” Insel said.
Early Voting Stats: NC
% of Early Voters
Men 38.7%
Women 60.8%
White 56.5%
Black 39.9%
White Women 33.2%
White Men 23.1%
Democrat 84.1%
Unaffiliated 15.8%
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More info:
Voter registration as of today (via State Board of Elections):
Democratic: 2,633,381 Republican: 1,933,658 Unaffiliated: 1,244,739 Total: 5,811,778
Absentee Counts as of 05/06/2008 6:00am:
Absentee Mail Ballots Returned: 24,900 Absentee Onestop Ballots Cast: 471,006
Primary Day [UPDATE: Heavy turnout]
I’m in North Carolina, and have already voted. [UPDATE: If you are in NC, here’s some voting information].
[UPDATE: Heavy turnout reported as of noon today, More here]The eyes of the nation are on this state and Indiana, but my eyes are on Indiana. If Obama can eke out a win there, even a minor one, it may be just enough for Hillary to throw in the towel. It certainly will help Obama with the undecided superdelegates.
Unfortunately, I place the chance of that happening at about 10%. Later deciders typically have gone for Clinton (except in the South), and she already enjoys a 5 point lead (roughly) in Indiana going into today’s primaries.
Anyway, as part of today’s election analysis, I’m going to answer the "eight questions" that WaPo reporter Dan Balz put to himself in today’s column. (I haven’t read his answers beforehand).
1. Has Obama put the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him?
Yes. The media has played it out. Nothing more can be said. To the extent it has affected voters’ opinions (and it probably affected some), the "damage" has been done. But my sense is that the moajority of voters are concerned about the economy and gas prices, and have come to see the whole "controversy" as a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
2. Will the gas tax holiday proposal help or hurt Clinton?
Hurt mostly. Anyone who has heard the gas tax holiday proposal has also heard the criticisms of it — specifically, it won’t put much money back in the consumer profits, and gas station owners won’t necessarily lower prices. Also, it hurts jobs.
States will lose revenue earmarked to improve highways and infrastructure.
Need I say more?
Clinton’s proposal also has resulted in having her placed shoulder-to-shoulder with McCain. It also reaks of obvious pandering. Certainly, some will not see this, but the majority of voters will see this as Washington-as-usual, and think more seriously about Obama.
3. Will a Clinton win in either contest guarantee that the race will go to the convention?
Guarantee? No. But it will certainly help. If Clinton pulls an upset in North Carolina, that will come closest to guaranteeing a race all the way to the convention.
But Clinton is in for the long haul. The only thing that will make her go away is when the math gets too bad that even she can’t deny it.
4. After today, which state will be most important to determining the Democratic contest?
None. The rest of the states are too small to make any significant difference in terms of delegate count.
5. Is there a person remaining whose endorsement could make a difference in the race?
Al Gore and John Edwards.
6. If Obama wins the nomination, can he win working-class white voters in November?
Maybe not win, but he can cut deeply into McCain’s perceived strength in that area. Working class voters are the ones who suffer most from the economic policies of Bush — policies which McCain for the most part embraces. If Obama can get that message out, he can take a significant chunk of working class white voters.
7. If Clinton wins the nomination, will black voters support the Democratic ticket?
Of course.
8. Who do Republican leaders see as the tougher opponent — Obama or Clinton?
Obama. This can be shown by the efforts of Limbaugh and others to get Republicans to vote for Hillary in the primaries. They want to run against Hillary.
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This prediction sounds about right to me:
I should make an official prediction about tonight, right? Well, clearly the universe is conspiring to make this primary last as long as possible. So what’s going to happen is that (of course) Clinton will win Indiana and Obama will win North Carolina. But Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina, and Clinton’s supporters will note in somber tones that Obama lost the white vote in NC. At the same time, because NC has substantially more delegates than Indiana, Obama will actually make a small gain in net delegates causing his supporters (i.e. me) to become further enraged at Clinton’s refusal to admit that she’s lost and the press’ insistence on indulging the idea that there’s real doubt about the ultimate outcome.
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Poll roundup:
Composite Pollster.com score:
Clinton 49.7
Obama 43.9
Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 48 (47)
Obama 44 (40)
Zogby. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 42 (42)
Obama 44 (42)
Suffolk. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Clinton 49
Obama 43
PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)
Clinton 51 (50)
Obama 46 (42)
ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 53 (53)
Obama 45 (44)
SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/25-27 results)
Clinton 54 (52)
Obama 42 (43)
SUSA says 12 points, but I find it hard to believe. I think Zogby is full of crap. The six-point composite sounds reasonable. All of these polls except SUSA show movement in Obama’s direction.
Composite Pollster.com score:
Obama 49.9
Clinton 42.2
Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 3% (5/1 results)
Obama 48 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)
Zogby. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Obama 48 (50)
Clinton 40 (34)
PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)
Obama 53 (51)
Clinton 43 (39)
ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Obama 50 (52)
Clinton 42 (41)
SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)
Obama 50 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)
For what it’s worth, SurveyUSA has had the best track record for accuracy this primary season.
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CNN: Record turnout in NC possible
An Open Statement Opposing Proposals for a Gas Tax Holiday
Here:
In recent weeks, there have been proposals in Congress and by some presidential candidates to suspend the gas tax for the summer. As economists who study issues of energy policy, taxation, public finance, and budgeting, we write to indicate our opposition to this policy.
Put simply, suspending the federal tax on gasoline this summer is a bad idea and we oppose it.
There are several reasons for this opposition:
First, research shows that waiving the gas tax would generate major profits for oil companies rather than significantly lowering prices for consumers.
Second, it would encourage people to keep buying costly imported oil and do nothing to encourage conservation.
Third, a tax holiday would provide very little relief to families feeling squeezed.
Fourth, the gas tax suspension would threaten to increase the already record deficit in the coming year and reduce the amount of money going into the highway trust fund that maintains our infrastructure.
Signers of this letter are Democrats, Republicans and Independents. This is not a partisan issue. It is a matter of good public policy.
And then it’s signed by over 221 economics experts and professors.
My Predictions For Tomorrow
Obama wins North Carolina by 11.
Hillary wins Indiana by 4.
Hillary doesn’t drop out. It goes to the convention.
Recent Obama video in NC:
The good stuff (in my opinion) starts at the 5:00 mark.
MESSAGE FOR THOSE READING THIS WHO ARE NOT POLITICALLY INCLINED: Take the time and go vote for Obama anyway. Just trust me. Or, if not me, then Tom Hanks.
Gas Tax Holiday Argument Not Being Bought By Public
Well, well, well. Who knew? McCain and Clinton thought they could pander and buy votes by proposing a gas tax holiday over the summer months. Doesn’t look like the winning side, as people kind of understand that it is a quick fix to a larger problem, that doesn’t put much many in people’s pockets anyway. [UPDATE: No economist agrees with Hillary, but she pooh-poohs them a la George Bush. Ex-Labor Sec. Robert Reich comments:
"In case you’ve missed it, we now have a president who doesn’t care what most economists think. George W. Bush doesn’t even care what scientists think. He rejects all experts who disagree with his politics. This has led to some extraordinarily stupid policies. I’m not saying HRC is George Bush. And I’m not suggesting economists have all the answers. But when economists tell a president or a presidential candidate that his or her idea is dumb — and when all respectable economists around America agree that it’s a dumb idea — it’s probably wise for the president or presidential candidate to listen. When the president or candidate doesn’t, and proudly defends the policy by saying she’s ‘not going to put my lot in with economists,’ we’ve got a problem, folks."
Anyway, back to the topic at hand…..]
NYT polls the gas tax issue. How remarkable. It’s almost as if the press’ unusual decision to make some effort to cover the issue in a substantive way led to a better-informed electorate.
NC Man On Death Row Freed
This is the kind of thing that makes my blood boil:
For the second time in two months, an innocent man is being released from North Carolina’s death row. Levon "Bo" Jones spent 13 years on death row after being convicted of the 1987 murder of Leamon Grady. Federal judge Terrence Boyle vacated Jones’ conviction and death sentence in 2006 after finding that Jones’ trial attorneys "utterly failed" to investigate the crime. (Read the Order here.) Duplin County District Attorney Dewey Hudson, who tried Jones in 1993, vowed to retry the case. This week Hudson was forced to admit that he has no evidence against Jones, and is expected to ask the court to release Jones today.
From his appointment until a month before trial, Jones’ lead counsel – Graham Phillips – did virtually no work on the case. According to the District Court’s opinion, Phillips "interviewed no witnesses, filed no motions, sought no evaluation of Jones, and conducted no mitigation investigation." Phillips did not even request the second counsel to which Jones was constitutionally entitled. The second lawyer, Charles Henderson, was appointed only upon the request of the District Attorney, less than a month before trial.
There was no physical evidence against Jones, and no eyewitnesses to the shooting. The State’s star witness, Lovely Lorden, was Jones ex-girlfriend. Although counsel’s strategy for the trial was to discredit Lorden’s testimony, they never interviewed her. Had counsel bothered to run a simple criminal record check, they would have discovered that Lorden had a number of convictions relevant to her truthfulness, including fraud and worthless checks. Counsel also failed to obtain all of Lorden’s statements to police, which were inconsistent with one another and with her testimony on the stand. Finally, counsel did not investigate Lorden’s history of mental health problems. Counsel failed to cross-examine Lorden about what she claimed to have seen, instead questioning her mainly about the paternity of her children.
Counsel never bothered to review the District Attorney’s file in the case, which contained evidence pointing to the guilt of another man. Allen Bizzell, who along with George Overton led police to Grady’s body, gave four very different statements to police. At first he said that he and Overton left work at 3 AM to buy beer for their boss from Grady. Then he claimed that Overton left work alone and returned ten minutes later with a six-pack he had stolen from Grady. Next Bizzell claimed that Overton left alone and returned acting strangely and asking Bizzell to tell the police that he had accompanied Overton to Grady’s house. FInally, Bizzell told police that Overton returned to work and told him that Grady had been killed, but suggested that they go to his house and "roll" him before calling the police. Overton, too, told different stories to police. He left town shortly after the murder, but was arrested within a week for rape.
From the District Attorney’s files, counsel could also have learned that Lovely Lorden changed her story about who accompanied Jones to Grady’s house that night. At first she identified Larry Lamb and "Tootie" Matthews as Jones’ accomplices. When it was revealed that "Tootie" had an airtight alibi, Lorden shifted her testimony to blame Tootie’s brother, Ernest Matthews. Across five statements, Lorden also changed her mind about the color of the car Jones was allegedly driving, how many shots were fired, what time the accomplices were picked up, and where else they went that night.
In April, Jones’ attorneys provided the court with an affidavit from Lovely Lorden in which she states, "Much of what I testified to was simply not true." She further asserts that a detective coached her on what to say at Jones’ trial. Had trial counsel looked in the prosecutor’s file, they would have found an SBI surveillance tape of a conversation between Lovely Lorden and Larry Lamb, in which Lorden stated that the police were hassling her about the Grady murder and that she wanted to come up with a plan to save herself and Lamb. Lamb repeatedly denied any involvement in the murder.
Based on Lorden’s testimony, Larry Lamb is now serving life in prison. Ernest Matthews pleaded guilty to second-degree murder and was released in 2001.
The Governor’s Office paid Lorden $4000 for her testimony. Will it pay Bo Jones for the 13 years she cost him?
Can you imagine if punishment against Mr. Jones had been swift, and he had been executed within a year of his conviction?
Lower, Lower, Lower
Poll: Bush most unpopular in modern history
A new poll suggests that George W. Bush is the most unpopular president in modern American history.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Thursday indicates that 71 percent of the American public disapprove of how Bush his handling his job as president.
"No president has ever had a higher disapproval rating in any CNN or Gallup poll; in fact, this is the first time that any president’s disapproval rating has cracked the 70 percent mark," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Indian Baby Dropping
Let’s hope it doesn’t catch on here…
Reuters explains:
Muslims in western India have been observing a bizarre ritual – they’ve been throwing their young children off a tall building to improve their health.
The faithful have been observing the ritual at a shrine in Solapur, in western India’s Maharastra, for more than five hundred years.
They believe it will make their children strong and say no accidents have ever happened.
uh….yet.
D.C. Madam Suicide
Already there are reports questioning whether or not it was a suicide.
During several recent appearances on The Alex Jones Show, Palfrey also said that she was at risk of being killed and that authorities would make it look like suicide. She made it clear that she was not suicidal and if she was found dead it would be murder.
Palfrey had threatened to release the names of well-known clients of her upscale call girl ring in the nation’s capitol, and had indicated that Dick Cheney may be one of them.
"No I’m not planning to commit suicide," Palfrey told The Alex Jones Show on her last appearance, "I’m planning on going into court and defending myself vigorously and exposing the government," she said.
Sounds like we’re in a Grisham novel…
Congratulations….
…to the valedictorian of Edwards Little High School, Auburn Maine, — Zachary Dumont!
Animals Falling Asleep
Awwwww….