The Dem Delegate Issue Explained

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

This is as good as it gets for a graphical depiction of the Democratic contest, and how either candidate could win.  The hill is steeper for Hillary.

From the New York Times

20080306_elect_graphc

My one gripe with the chart above is when it refers to either candidate getting 60% of the remaining delegates.  When it comes to voting margins, getting 60% means virtual blowouts in several states.  Ain’t gonna happen for either one.

UPDATE:  The Obama camp is denying the report — by no less than Tom Brokaw — that it is hoding a "secret cache" of 50 superdelegates.

RELATED:  By the way, even though Clinton won the popular vote in Texas, it looks like Obama actually will come away with more delegates from that state.

With all the back-and-forth over the delegates gained by Obama and Clinton in yesterday’s Texas primary, this word is just in from state Democratic officials.

Obama could pick up a net gain of three delegates, after all the dust settles.

Here’s how Dem officials say that’s possible:

Clinton won the popular vote, and could pick up as many as four delegates from that.

Obama appears to be winning the caucus voting on delegates, and could pick up as many as seven delegates there.

If that holds true, Obama would end up with three more Texas delegates than Clinton.

But we’re staying tuned for the final results, whenever they come out.

For The Record, I Left NYC On Sunday

Ken AshfordWar on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

Blast Damages Times Square Recruiting Station

Fortunately, nobody was hurt.  And the explosion wasn’t that large.  That area is covered with security cameras, so you know they’re going to find the guy.  Probably some nut.

Of course, the rightwing blogosphere are all acting like junior CSI-ers:

From the choice of target, lack of shrapnel, and low amount of explosives used, I think it only logical to conclude that the blast was political in nature, a violent though purposefully less-lethal bomb, if you can ever call an improvised explosive device "less lethal." For these reasons, I doubt it was the act of Islamic extremists.

This was an act of domestic terrorism.

The internet Encyclopedia Browns.  What a joke.

Election 2008 Analysis: Ohio And Texas

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

Well, you have to doff your hat to the Hillary.  Not so much because she won Ohio and Texas (although, as you know, she did win those two), but because she’s got the media barking the right narrative.  Right for her, that is.

After all, "winning" states only means that you got more than 50% of the votes.  And that certainly gives the winner something — specifically, the ability to say "I won those states".

But the nomination is about delegates.  I’ll say that again: it’s all about the delegates.  The media has been VERY BAD about keeping its eye on that ball — they’re are (typically) caught up in the whole win/loss horserace of each state.

After all, jst because Hillary "won" Ohio, that does not mean she gets all of Ohio’s delegates.  She gets some; he gets some.  She’ll get more than Obama (for that state) but is it enough to make a difference in the total tally?

Probably not.  Obama has a sizeable lead in the delegate count.  People who have done that math all agree — barring some implosion by Obama, which causes Hillary to win overwhelming in the rest of the primaries, she simply cannot come out ahead as far as pledged delegates.

In short, simple math is Hillary’s enemy, no matter how well she did yesterday, or in the primaries to come.

Hillary’s strategy, however, is all about the superdelegates — the unpledged party leaders (state governors, state senators, etc.) whose votes count at the convention.  She’s hoping to make an argument at the convention that she "won" the big states (Ohio, Texas, New York, California, etc), and those superdelegates should support her.  She also hopes to argue that she has more votes than Obama overall, based on the popular vote throughout the entire country (she can’t claim this yet — according to MSNBC, he’s won 12,920,961 votes to Clinton’s 12,322,695 votes out of more than 26 million cast so far.  But those numbers are a lot closer today than they were 48 hours ago).

By making these argument and persuading superdelegates that she has the better support of the nation and party, Hillary hopes to come out ahead of Obama in the delegate count (when you add the superdelegates and the pledged delegates together).

A bit of a longshot, but a decent strategy.

MSNBC has a good summary of where the candidates stand on delegates.  Remember, the magic number to win is 2,025 (that’s delegates plus superdelegates):

Based on preliminary results of last night’s contests (the Texas caucuses are not yet factored in), here’s where the Democratic delegate count stands: Obama 1,518, Clinton 1,429. The NBC News Hard Count has Obama at 1,307 to 1,175 for Clinton after last night’s voting. The superdelegate count stands at Clinton 254, Obama 211. Here’s how the states broke down: VT: Obama 9-6; OH: Clinton 73-62 (six unallocated); RI: Clinton, 13-8; TX: Clinton 46-34 (113 unallocated). That’s a net gain of 23 pledged delegates for Clinton. But before figuring out the Texas mess, Clinton had a net of approximately 13 delegates. If Obama wins the delegate battle in Texas (which the allocation formulas seem to indicate), he’ll cut that 13 net by as many as 6. However, one estimate in Texas has Obama netting no more than one after the caucus, giving Clinton the possibility that she’ll net more than 10 delegates when March 4 is all said and done. While not MAJOR progress on the pledged delegate front, it’s impressive nonetheless since so many folks predicted her not even netting 10 delegates last night.

Another estimate says that Clinton, who was behind Obama by 159 pledged delegates 24 hours ago, is now, as a result of yesterday, 157 pledged delegates behind.  So for all her "big wins" yesterday, it really didn’t get her very far.

It’s important to remember that superdelegates are not committed.  They can change their mind at anytime.  Many are still on the fence.  A few, like John Lewis, have flip-flopped.

Also important: some "pledged" delegates are also uncommitted, and will be decided at state conventions.  (see this NY Times chart for details).

And then there’s Michigan and Florida, whose delegates were "stripped" from the tally, because they moved their election dates early in violation of the Democratic National Committee rules.

So even though the math looks good for Obama, there are still a lot of unknown variables out there.

What happens next?  Wyoming and Mississippi have their primaries within the next seven days, although both in terms of delegates and prestige, they won’t have an impact.  Obama is expected to win in both those plaves, and it might blunt some of victory party that Hillary is (finally) experiencing now.  The next big prize is Pennsylvania (on April 22) with 79 delegates.  And then, on May 6, Indiana and North Carolina, with 36 and 58 delegates at play respectively.  Interestingly, the last primary is Puerto Rico, on June 7.  Wouldn’t it be interesting to see the two candidates scrambling for those delegate votes (28 of them)?  It could happen.  It’s that close.

In the meantime, the Clinton campaign is going to turn up the heat on Obama, something they have done effectively these past two weeks.  The sheen of Obama is a little damaged.  I’m sure right now the Obama campaign is regrouping, just as they did after their unexpected loss in New Hampshire.  The nomination is still theirs to lose, and there is a scenario in which it is possible he might.  Josh Marshall weighs in on this:

Let’s hypothesize for a moment a scenario in which March 4th broke the back of Obama’s campaign. He emerges bloodied and doesn’t seem to be able to stand up to Hillary’s assault. His delegate margin is big enough that she can’t catch up. But she runs through the next dozen or however many remaining contests there are making up steady ground on the pledged delegate front. I don’t think a small margin of pledged delegates will be enough if Obama looks like a damaged candidate who seems unable to fight off a determined and ruthless opponent. Just hanging on to the margin he banked in February won’t be enough because fundamentally, if neither candidate has it locked by the convention, the super delegates will want to pick the candidate who looks like the general election winner and is the favorite of Democrats at the time of the convention, two qualifiers which are in practice two sides of the same coin.

I don’t think the above is a likely scenario. In fact, I think it’s quite unlikely. Almost everything remains stacked against Hillary. There’s no denying that. But I think this does point to what this debate — literal and meta — will turn on over the next couple weeks.

A Marshall suggests, there’s going to be the "shadow campaign" by both camps to win over the superdelegates.  Of particular interest is the rumor, reported by Tom Brokaw, that the Obama camp claims to have commitments from 50 additional superdelegates ready to go public soon.  If that’s true, that might be the final nail.

But as for yesterday, Clinton did what she needed to keep on going.  Her back against the wall, her campaign effectively pulled out some big "wins".  She’s still damn close to that wall, but she’s far from dead.  In fact, while nobody was looking, Gallup released a tracking poll yesterday showing Obama and Clinton dead even in national polling — both at 45%

Buckle your seatbelt, indeed.

P.S.  On the GOP side, McCain reach the "magic number" for the Republican nomination.  Huckabee, who never stood a chance, is out.  It’s officially McCain now (but for the actual banging of the gavel at the GOP convention).

UPDATE:  Ezra Klein is saying what I have been saying, only better:

Clinton’s problem now is that she doesn’t need to beat Obama, she has to convince the superdelegates to beat Obama for her. And this requires a different sort of argument. Even under assumptions very favorable to Clinton, Obama is likely to end the primaries with 100-or-so more pledged delegates than she has. Her only hope is that the party elders, the so-called superdelegates, will grow so uncomfortable with Obama’s weaknesses that they’ll intervene on her behalf, risking the ire of their constituents, the fury of African-American voters who feel betrayed by their party, and a convention storyline that blames a smoke-filled backroom for overturning the will of the voters. That’s a tall order.

To convince them to do so, she’ll need to fatally wound Obama. But attacking that ferociously will destroy her candidacy, too, and infuriate superdelegates who see her irreversibly bloodying the Democrats’ likely nominee, and thus hurting the party’s chances for victory. What she really needs is for Obama to independently collapse, so the superdelegates have a reason to turn on him. But that’s exceedingly unlikely. The only close contender for unsettling the superdelegates is if Obama, rather than collapsing, proves himself passive and vulnerable before Clinton’s continuing assault, and thus suggests that he’ll be shredded by the Republicans’ fusillade. Democrats, after years of cowering before the right wing’s attacks, will not send a political pacifist into the general election.

Pancake Recall

Ken AshfordHealth Care1 Comment

Auntjemina_03Meat recalls, I can deal with, but when something goes awry with the nation’s pancake supply, that’s when I withdraw all my money from the ATM and head to the bomb shelter in fear of armegeddon.

Strange news out of St. Louis:

Dierbergs and Schnucks grocery stores said reported today that they have removed some pancake mixes off its shelves after a recall of the products showed they could pose a health risk.

Two Quaker Oats products — Aunt Jemima Complete Pancake Mix and Aunt Jemima Buttermilk Complete Pancake Mix — have been recalled and are under investigation for a possible health risk, according to a press release given out by Dierbergs grocery stores.

The recall is for the 32 ounce packages of the pancake mixes. The recall is for the Aunt Jemima Complete Pancake Mix boxes with the UPC code 30000-05070 or the Buttermilk Complete Pancake Mix with the UPC code 30000-05300, according to Dierbergs. The expiration dates on the boxes range from Feb. 8 through Feb. 23.

Quaker Oats Company said they could not yet say exactly what is wrong with the mixes.

"We are currrently working with regulators on what we can say," spokeswoman Candace Mueller said this afternoon.

Schnucks said Quaker Oats said only that, "there is a potential health risk associated" with the recalled products.

UPDATE:  ABC News has more info

Quaker Oats recalled some of its popular Aunt Jemima pancake mixes because of the risk of illness from salmonella.

The recall includes 1,000 cases in 17 states containing Aunt Jemima Pancake and Waffle Mix.

"There is a health risk only if consumed raw or if the product is undercooked," the company said on its Web site. "The vast majority" of the recalled boxes have "likely not been placed on store shelves."

"Approximately 98 percent of the product is within our control. The 2 percent of product, which is outside of our control, was shipped to a limited number of retail and mass merchandisers," Quaker Oats said.

So far, no illnesses have been linked to the recall and the company said that no other products had been affected.

Are You Sleepy?

Ken AshfordHealth CareLeave a Comment

It’s National Sleep Awareness Week, and we, as a nation, aren’t getting enough sleep. God knows I’m not.

Below is the percent of adults who report getting less than 6 hours of sleep per night.  Note that the perecentages have risen since the question was last asked two decades ago.

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This is CDC data from 2006. There are some hints in the data that an organized work schedule helped people maintain a regular sleep schedule. Those in the categories of fully or otherwise employed reported the lowest rates of a month of poor sleep (both about 10 percent). That number crept up to 13 percent in the unemployed, and went up to nearly 25 percent in those unable to work. Regular workers still missed a few days of sound sleep a month, while that never happened for over half the retired population (although that might be a function of age).

These numbers need to be viewed with some caution.  Although the CDC has calculated confidence intervals, they were not released along with the data.  Given the different ways of viewing this data (always getting a poor night’s sleep vs. never doing so vs. having at least one poor night, etc.), it’s also difficult to assign too much value to any one of these figures. Still, the data suggest that a significant percentage of the US population is consistently getting too little sleep, and that the the number of people with sleep issues is rising.

Bad Brew

Ken AshfordDisastersLeave a Comment

Tornado warnings for the Triad tonight.

And I have rehearsal in a trailer.

In a trailer.

With tornado warnings.

A freakin’ trailer.  Them things be tornado magnets.

For The Record, I’ve Never Been To Australia

Ken AshfordPersonalLeave a Comment

Must be someone else:

More than 65,000 WA volunteers resisted a Sunday sleep-in to collect 520 tonnes of rubbish yesterday morning for the 19th Clean Up Australia Day.
 
Community groups and individual volunteers tended to rivers, bush and beaches to remove glass, drink cans, confectionery wrappers, cigarette butts and other discarded rubbish.
   
Clean Up Australia Day chairman Ian Kiernan used the day to congratulate the South Australian Government on becoming the first State to introduce a ban on all plastic bags by the end of the year.
   
He called for a national plastic bag ban and public recycling systems to address waste problems Australia-wide.
   
***
   
Mr Templeman said about $16 million was spent cleaning up litter every year and called on people to dob in litterbugs. About 2500 fines were issued in 2006-2007.
   
Down at Minim Cove park in Mosman Park, about 30 people helped fill a skip bin with rubbish and weeds from surrounding bush.
   
Ken Ashford dug out century plants which are not native to area.
   
“It is great to see so many people out and about,” he said.
   
“It shows that we don’t just whinge to the government to do things, we too don’t mind getting our hands dirty for the good of the community.
   
“I would like to see local governments plan days like this quarterly and get even more people involved.”

Don’t know what "whinge" means.  Probably sounds cool when it’s said with an Aussie accent.

Support Our Troops

Ken AshfordCrimeLeave a Comment

Just not these guys:

A video which apparently shows US soldiers torturing a puppy has sparked outrage after it appeared on internet sites such as YouTube.

The footage, which is just 15 seconds long, shows a man dressed in military uniform holding the black and white puppy up to the camera by the scruff of its neck.

He then hurls it into the distance and the puppy can be heard yelping as the men laugh.

The video is no longer available on YouTube, although here’s a picture from that video.

Puppy2utube0303_175x125

ABC news has more:

The United States Marine Corps is investigating one of its own after a disturbing video appeared on YouTube showing a Marine apparently throwing a puppy off a cliff in Iraq.

The grainy images look as if they may have been shot by a cell phone camera. In the video, a uniformed Marine holds a small black-and-white puppy by the scruff of the neck and says, "Cute little puppy, huh?"

Then he launches the dog over the cliff. The puppy’s yelps can be heard until it hits the ground below. Then the Marine shrugs his shoulders while another Marine standing nearby laughs and says, "That was mean."

In a statement the Marine Corps, which declined to name the Marine, called the video is "shocking and deplorable."

Marine spokesman Maj. Chris Perrine said the soldier in the video was believed to be based in Hawaii.

"We do not tolerate this type of behavior and will take appropriate action," Perrine said.

It’s possible the video is a hoax….

Today’s The Day

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

My prediction:  A slight Obama win in Texas, a decent but not overwhelming win for Hillary in Ohio.  Obama predictably wins Vermont and Rhode Island by wide margins.

Clinton fights on to Pennsylvania.

A rundown of scenarios are here.

The New York Weekend

Ken AshfordTheatre4 Comments

So I haven’t blogged for a while.  Been busy fighting the flu and going to New York to see theater, the latter being, naturally, the highlight.

Emily (who tells her tale here) and I flew up Friday morning on Continental.  Emily, not one for air travel, handled it well.   It could have been worse…

We checked into our hotel, the Crown Plaza, which was centrally located in Times Square/Theatre District.  35th floor, giving us a nice view of Jersey, the sunset, and a peculiar man in an adjoining skyscraper who liked to shower in front of an open window (whom I quickly dubbed "Emily’s boyfriend").

And so began the weekend.

Play643bAugust: Osage County.  This, for me, was the raison d’etre of the weekend, and I wasn’t disappointed.  This is "the play" of the season and gets favorably compared to Long Day’s Journey Into Night and other classics.  There’s talk of Pulitzer and, of course, many Tonys.  As the Times said:

A fraught, densely plotted saga of an Oklahoma clan in a state of near-apocalyptic meltdown, “August” is probably the most exciting new American play Broadway has seen in years. Oh, forget probably: It is, flat-out, no asterisks and without qualifications, the most exciting new American play Broadway has seen in years.

The writer is Tracy Letts ("Bug") and performed by the Steppenwolf Company. 

It clocked in at over three hours, with two intermissions, but there was not a moment I was bored.  August is a comic drama about a dysfunctional Southern family.  The matriarch is addicted to pills; the patriarch, an alcoholic.  He makes a brief appearance at the beginning of the play, explaining the situation to a housekeeper he’s hiring: "My wife takes pills and I drink. That’s the bargain we’ve struck … one of the bargains, just one paragraph of our marriage contract …. cruel covenant."

Shortly after this, he disappears from the house, sending the play off.   His mysterious disappearance brings the three daughters, their husbands/fiances, a pair of in-laws, and a grandchild all together, although "together" is one thing this family is not.

For a play that touches upon drug addiction and alcoholism, and includes blood relatives falling in love with each other (cousins? siblings?  I ain’t tellin’…), the seduction of a 16 year old pot-smoking girl by her soon-to-be-uncle, infidelity and an awful lot of familial fighting, it would be hard for one to believe that the show could have such raw humor.  But it was very very funny.  So funny at times, that you forget that you are watching a contemporary epic tragedy.

The dialogue was witty and sharp, full of memorable one-liners like "Thank God we can’t tell the future, or we’d never get out of bed” and interesting monologues (one, for example, calling bullshit on the whole "greatest generation" thing).  Some scenes were absolutely flawless in writing and execution — I’m thinking in particular of the "dinner scene": the awkwardly comic grace uttered by one of the characters, the explanation by the little girl of why she won’t eat meat (when animals are slaughtered, they experience fear; so at the time of their death, animals are excreting chemicals into their blood, like adrenaline; so therefore, when you eat meat, you are literally "eating fear"), and the inevitable "honest" criticisms from the mother of those at the table, which ends up in violent plate-smashing.

The three-story set (which you can get a sense of in the picture below) was fantastic.

Tn500__mg_3596

The performances were phenomenal, and you found yourself caring about every character, despite their flaws.  Deanna Dunagan is certain to take the Tony as the unbearably mean and tragic Violet Weston, the matriarch of the family.  She brought a certain physicality to the role, especially during the times when she was high.  Other times, her beady eyes would scan the family, looking for the next victim of her no-bullshit verbal abuse — ironic since her pill addiction was largely a by-product of having mouth cancer.

Amy Morton as the daughter Barbara also was amazing, especially once she decided to stand up to her mother and others and take control ("I AM RUNNING THINGS HERE!!"). 

Well, they all were really good.  This is Steppenwolf, which has some of the best ensemble acting in the country.

Tn500__mg_3605

(Pictured above: Jeff Perry, Mariann Mayberry, Deanna Dunagan, and Amy Morton)

Xanadu.  This was our theatre fare for the Saturday matinee.  If there ever was a show that was the polar opposite of August, it would be Xanadu, a campy no-intermission 90 minute musical based on the horribly bad film.

I didn’t have high expectations for Xanadu.  First of all, I thought the movie was bad, but not bad in a good way.  Just plain bad.  But I actually kind of liked the music in the movie, especially the ELO stuff, and I knew they were butchering it in the stage production.

But I really really liked Xanadu.  It was extremely funny, and most of the credit goes to Kerry Butler and Cheyenne Jackson, as well as the writing.  I couldn’t get enough of Kerry Butler’s over-the-top Australian accent ("My name is Kiiiiiiiiiiiiirraaah") and Jackson’s vacant stare as the California surfer-dude type who just wants to open a rollerdisco and arts center (with the help of Butler, as a Greek muse).  The supporting cast was great as well.  The stage was comparatively small, made smaller by the fact that some of the audience sits on stage (the actors loved to play and "ad lib" to them).

It was campy good fun.  Can’t understand why Jamie didn’t like it, but I think it’s because it’s one of those shows that is aware that it’s a show.

Emily got her pictures taken with Kerry and Cheyenne afterwards.

Xanadu3

Tony & Tina’s Wedding.  Well, here’s the thing about T&TW.  It may seem a bit obvious, but it didn’t really dawn on me until I was there — when you attend this show, you’re going to a wedding and a wedding reception.  Think about what that means: that means you sit through a ceremony (which normally is held in an actual church, but they didn’t have one for our particular performance), and then you go to a party afterwards.

And that was the problem for me.  Attending Tony & Tina’s Wedding, while not unbearable, was not unlike going a wedding for two people you don’t know, and then going to a party populated by people you don’t know. 

General_invites_thumb_1_2Now, I recognize that some people don’t really need a reason to do this.  If there is food and alcohol and the chance to do the Electric Slide, then some people are like "Hey! Sign me up!".  But I’m just not one of those people.

There really wasn’t much of a plot (nor did I expect there to be).  It was just a bunch of characters, acting as those characters would act.  For example, Tina’s brother was flamboyantly gay.  So throughout the evening, you might see him dancing or talking, and always acting flamboyantly gay.  And that was it.  The photographer got slowly drunk as the evening went on.  And that was it.

It wasn’t that it was a bad show, and every so often something amusing might happen (if you happened to catch it, because everything is happening all around you at the same time).  It’s just that once you kind of "got" what each character was about, there really wasn’t more to it.  And in fact, there were several characters there that just seemed to "be there" — you weren’t sure why.

I couldn’t help think that it would be a much more fun show to perform than to actually see.  Unless, of course, you happen to like to attend weddings of total strangers of Italian descent who hail from New Jersey.  Which, you know, I’ve never particularly felt compelled to do.

So, I’m glad I found out what the experience was like, but I was a bit disappointed.

PoppinsMary Poppins.  Ah, yes.  The Disney musical.

I’m not a big fan of the film.  Not that I hate it, but I just don’t have the emotional attachment to it that others have.  Except for "Feed The Birds".  Love "Feed The Birds".  Don’t know why.  Just a softy, I guess.

The stage version is interesting in that it incorporates the songs from the Disney classic film, and adds some new songs (most of them not bad at all), but the story itself is more based on the books.  So it wasn’t like the film was plastered on to the stage.

That said, it was everything you would expect from a Disney show.  Spectacular effects.  Amazing moving sets.  Outstanding choreography.  Ashley Brown was terrific.  As was Gavin Lee.

It’s hard not to watch something like that and just not be enthralled.  But my complaint is what I have with most Disney shows, save (perhaps) The Lion King.  It was too much flash, too little substance.  The show seems to rely on you being DAZZLED.  They are there to DAZZLE you dammit, and DAZZLED you shall be.  And DAZZLED I was. 

Marypoppinsbegin460 The problem with that is this: if three minutes go by without a special effect of some sort — someone flying, or an animatronic dog barking, or a high-stepping dance number — you can almost feel the audience thinking "Come on!  What’s with the talking here?"

But taking it for what it is, it is a very good show and a really fun time.  Someday, I wish someone would mount a scaled-down version of a show like this, and let the actors, rather than the set and special effects have a greater role.  But that’s just me — I’m in the minority on that one.

Emily commented that the show seemed "dark".  And it was.  I’ve always thought there was something creepy about Mary Poppins.

The rest of the weekend.  Well, we managed to keep ourselves busy visiting the sites in the area, from Rockefeller Center to St. Paul’s to a walk in Central Park.  Going to Colony Records to get sheet music, and theatre bookstores to get plays.

We had to hunt around for Starbucks.  They’re a little hard to find in Manhattan for some reason. </sarcasm>

I saw Conan O’Brien very briefly while Emily and I were at Dean & Deluca.  Emily missed him, but we both saw Michael Emerson (Ben of "Lost") with his child.  I thought he was with a woman (perhaps his wife, Carrie Preston), but it was such a brief celeb spotting, that I couldn’t be sure.

On Saturday night after Tony & Tina’s Not Real Wedding But Actors Just Pretending That They Were Getting Married, Emily and I went to one of my favorite NY nightspots, The Duplex, down in the Village.  I always liked the vibe there, although I’ve noticed the past few times I’ve been there, that the "Broadway" piano bar really doesn’t do that much "Broadway" anymore. 

No matter though.  The piano player was great, as usual, and it was a nice atmosphere.  Well kinda.  One of the barkeeps was in a bad mood, having just recently been dumped by her girlfriend.  She made the wildly incorrect prediction that Emily, being straight, would enjoy sex with a lesbian such as herself (well, I’m assuming she was incorrect on that prediction), followed shortly by the even more inaccurate prediction that Emily and I would "fuck" that night.  Well, that’s what you get for sitting up front.  I should have known better.

And of course, one of the joys of the weekend was seeing the always lovely and very pregnant Heather and Jeff.  (Clarification: Heather was lovely and pregnant; Jeff was just lovely)  We had brunch with them on Saturday, and Heather stopped by to see us Sunday as we waited outside the Mary Poppins stage door (she works concessions at the show).  She looked great and the layers of winter clothing made her look ready to pop.  She’s not ready yet — the baby has another month or so in the oven.  But I got the sense that Heather was hoping it would come sooner.  Pregnancy — a bitch and a blessing, I guess.

We arrived back in Greensboro way behind schedule, thanks to Continental’s decision not to have a flight crew ready when both the plane and passengers were all prepared to fly.  So much for Continental "Express".

RIP William F Buckley

Ken AshfordIn PassingLeave a Comment

The New York Times is reporting that Buckley has died.

Not unlike the brand of conservatism for which he stood.  (Buckley was an outspoken critic of the Bush Administration, and the whole neocon movement).

Like him or hate him though, he was a giant.

Ezra Klein:

As a slightly more general point, in the last two or three years, a whole host of giants have passed away, men who were political thinkers at a time when that made you a cultural figure. John Kenneth Galbraith, Milton Friedman, Arthur Schlesinger Jr., Norman Mailer, and now, William F. Buckley Jr. Gore Vidal is just about the last of their number left. And that’s a shame. They would write serious books of political analysis and sell millions of copies — they were the writers you had to read to call yourself an actual political junkie. Now, the space they inhabited in the discourse is held by the Coulters and O’Reilly’s of the world. Where we once prized a tremendous facility for wit, we’re now elevating those with a tremendous storehouse for anger. Run a search on quotes from Galbraith, Buckley, or Friedman, then do the same for O’Reilly and Coulter. We’re really losing something here…