Obama Surging In Polls [UPDATE: Sorta Kinda]

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

New Gallup data.

He’s not only surged ahead nationally this month (see graph below), but among all subgroups.  Including Hispanics — the conventional wisdom as recent as two weeks ago was that Hillary had locked up the hispanic vote.  Not so anymore.  They split right down the middle.

He’s pulled ahead among middle-aged and women too, also a Clinton stronghold.  In fact, the only demographic where Clinton still holds a commanding lead are the over-55, and the high-school-or less.

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UPDATE:  Well, shit.  Gallup has an even newer survey showing a bounceback by Hillary…

021908dailyupdategraph1

Really, it’s still too close to call.

Political Terms

Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

  • absentee ballot

    A form of voting that does not involve the inconvenience of having to get up off the couch and walk to a high school gymnasium.

  • ballot

    An object recording a voter’s decision that is frequently counted toward an election’s outcome.

  • caucus

    The process by which Americans are quadrennially reminded of Iowa’s existence.

  • change

    Can be found

    1. In the air/wind.
    2. At hand.
    3. Inside us all.

  • convention

    The best four-day-long chance a politically active, overweight Kia salesman from Tulsa has to nail one of them blond Fox anchors.

  • corruption

    The most effective and efficient way to produce results in government.

  • debate

    A contest to see which candidate can answer the fewest questions.

  • delegate

    A demented, often screaming individual who experiences intense arousal at the sight of a vertically printed placard bearing his or her state’s name.

  • democracy

    A moderately representative plutocracy.

  • Diebold voting machine

    A sophisticated, computerized balloting terminal that electronically changes your vote into a vote for Mitt Romney.

  • election worker

    A male or female at least 70 years of age.

  • electoral college

    A process by which the number of states in the Union is narrowed down to the most important seven or eight.

  • experience

    A quantitative score any politician may increase by slaying foes or solving riddles.

  • likability

    The degree to which each candidate is able to hide the extent to which he or she is full of shit.

  • lobbyist

    A better-paid legislator.

  • MoveOn.org

    A company offering routine tests of your e-mail’s spam filter.

  • platform

    1. A list of the subjects that candidates are willing to discuss.
    2. A raised structure, almost entirely covered by flags, upon which candidates are placed.

  • political consultants

    Individuals who are very savvy politically, but don’t have enough hair to run for office themselves.

  • political philosophy, conservative

    1. A great way to meet chicks at Princeton University.
    2. U-S-A; e.g., U-S-A, U-S-A(!).

  • political philosophy, liberal

    An ideology steeped in a proud tradition of ineffectual whining.

  • pollster

    A person who willingly communicates with the elderly.

  • Rock The Vote

    Something that is, apparently, still happening.

  • voter apathy

    The reason most American politicians are able to achieve and maintain office.

    • — from The Onion

    Pepsi Raw

    Ken AshfordPopular Culture1 Comment

    Only available right now in certain bars and clubs in England, the new style of Pepsi contains only natural ingredients including apple extract, caramel coloring, coffee leaf, tantaric acid from grapes, gum arabic from acacia trees, cane sugar and sparkling water.  More here.

    Pepsiraw

    Clinton To Go After Pledged Delegates?

    Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

    One needs to consider the source (Roger Simon, not known for accuracy), but if this is true, this is a baaaad move:

    Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination.

    This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides.

    What? Isn’t that impossible? A pledged delegate is pledged to a particular candidate and cannot switch, right?

    Wrong.

    Pledged delegates are not really pledged at all, not even on the first ballot. This has been an open secret in the party for years, but it has never really mattered because there has almost always been a clear victor by the time the convention convened.

    But not this time. This time, one candidate may enter the convention leading by just a few pledged delegates, and those delegates may find themselves being promised the sun, moon and stars to switch sides.

    “I swear it is not happening now, but as we get closer to the convention, if it is a stalemate, everybody will be going after everybody’s delegates,” a senior Clinton official told me Monday afternoon. “All the rules will be going out the window.”

    The Obama people are all over this:

    Says Obama manager David Plouffe in statement: “As it becomes increasingly clear that Senator Clinton may not be able to secure the nomination by winning the support of actual voters, the Clinton campaign has once again floated a strategy that would essentially say that the preference of Democratic voters is a mere obstacle to their win-at-all-costs strategy."

    I agree.  The strategy of poaching pledged candidates from Obama has the stank of gangsterism.

    UPDATE:  Clinton campaign issues denial.

    RELATED:  For those only tangentially following the Dem race, here’s a good primer on the whole delegate thing.

    Bye Bye Castro

    Ken AshfordForeign AffairsLeave a Comment

    Well, it was to be expected I suppose.  Fifty years if a pretty good run.

    What this means, or should mean, is that we get to visit the lovely island of Cuba (or, if you are JFK, "Cuber").  On this point, I think Steve Clemons is right:

    Of all the low cost opportunities to demonstrate a new and different US style of engagement with the world, Cuba is at the top of the list. Opening family travel — and frankly all travel — between Cuba and the US, and ending the economic embargo will provide new encounters, new impressions, and the kind of people-to-people diplomacy that George W. Bush, John Bolton, Richard Cheney, and Jesse Helms run scared of.

    This is a huge potential pivot point in US-Cuba relations. Will Hillary Clinton step up to the plate — and will Obama move beyond the somewhat timid proposals he offered previously and go to the gold standard in US-Cuba relations articulated by Senator Chris Dodd?

    By the way, many people know that Castro was a minor league ballplayer in the United States before he rose to political fame in his homeland of Cuba.  Did you also know he was a movie extra?  Here’s his credits from IMDB.

    A Conversation Between Lee Harvey Oswald And Jack Ruby

    Ken AshfordHistoryLeave a Comment

    An excerpt from the newly-discovered transcript:

    Lee: You said the boys in Chicago want to get rid of the Attorney General.

    Ruby: Yes, but it can’t be done … it would get the Feds into everything.

    Lee: There is a way to get rid of him without killing him.

    Ruby: How’s that?

    Lee: I can shoot his brother.

    …

    Ruby: But that wouldn’t be patriotic.

    Lee: What’s the difference between shooting the Governor and in shooting the President?

    Ruby: It would get the FBI into it.

    Lee: I can still do it, all I need is my rifle and a tall building; but it will take time, maybe six months to find the right place; but I’ll have to have some money to live on while I do the planning."

    Yeah, it’s bullshit.  If you ever had the opportunity to read an actual transcript of an actual conversation by actual people actually talking, it never sounds like what’s printed above. 

    Nope, that was written by someone.

    Happy President’s Day!

    Pictured below: Ruby and Oswald during less congenial times

    Ruby20oswald

    Hillary’s Firewall

    Ken AshfordElection 2008Leave a Comment

    She’s even said that Texas is her firewall.  She needs to win it.

    When she said that a couple of weeks ago, it meant nothing.  After all, she was ahead there by double digits.

    But then the nation caught Obama fever and now…

    (CNN) — It’s all tied up in Texas.

    A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.

    In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party’s nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

    But taking into account the poll’s sampling error of plus or minus 4½ percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

    We’re Shooting Down Satellites Now?

    Ken AshfordScience & TechnologyLeave a Comment

    Not comforting:

    The shuttle Atlantis left the International Space Station on Monday and headed home for a planned Wednesday landing, clearing the way for a Defense Department effort to shoot down a failed spy satellite.

    Um, why?

    Why does Atlantis have to be out of outer space before the Defense Department has to shoot down a satellite? 

    I mean — space, as Douglas Adams would say, is very very big.  And if there’s a chance that the missile might miss and hit the Atlantis space shuttle, isn’t there a chance that the missile might miss and hit, say, the Triad?

    Just wondering out loud….

    Has The Obama Bubble Burst?

    Ken AshfordElection 20082 Comments

    Obamamania has been sweeping the nation, and he has been compared to Kennedy (John), Kennedy (Bobby), and Jesus.

    Not surprising — because such is the way our culture works — a backlash was expected.

    Kevin Drum thinks it is just about here:

    Bubbles always burst, and Obama has been riding a major league bubble for months now. Before too much longer his supporters are going to come down to earth. Reporters will start wondering why Obama doesn’t like to talk to them very much — and then they’ll get bored and cynical and start doing to him what they did to Howard Dean in 2004. John McCain is going to find his rhythm (though he hasn’t yet) and start making some effective jabs.

    This backlash meme is already widespread, and you can almost feel in the air that it’s about to explode into a feeding frenzy. In other words, it ain’t over yet. Wisconsin and the two weeks after it should be interesting, shouldn’t they?

    I haven’t been paying attention much to the political landscape, so I can’t weigh in on this.  I do agree with the major premise though — a backlash will happen.

    Us2topzdems600_2

    That said, I think the Clinton campaign is (once again) erring by suggesting that Obama "plagerized" when he borrowed a rhetorical riff from Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick without giving due credit.  I think the "message" that the Clinton campaign is trying to send is that Obama doesn’t have the rhetorical gifts that everything thinks he has — i.e., he STEALS it.

    Well, he may have taken one phrase from someone else, but that does not mean that Obama lacks oratory skills.  I think the Clinton campaign is barking up the wrong tree here.  Worse yet, I think she’s showing signs of desparation.  [UPDATE:  Pot, kettle, black?]

    UPDATE:  Video added..

    UPDATE:  Obama has borrowed from Patrick before (Patrick is an Obama supporter and friend), and admitted it.  From a 12/21/07 ABC report, this is what Obama told a crowd in Portsmouth, NH:

    "But you know in the end, don’t vote your fears. I’m stealing this line from my buddy (Massachusetts Gov.) Deval Patrick who stole a whole bunch of lines from me when he ran for the governorship, but it’s the right one, don’t vote your fears, vote your aspirations. Vote what you believe."

    God, Ignorance, And The State Of The Nation

    Ken AshfordElection 2008, GodstuffLeave a Comment

    I have no problem with religion and faith per se, but I do honestly believe that in the extreme it fosters ignorance, and on a grand scale, the result is detrimental to our country.

    Exhibit A

    RELATED:  Shorter Marie Jon Apostrophe:

    Barack Obama’s is a Christian who attends an all-black church devoted to, among other things, adoration, salvation, and biblical and cultural education — and not devoted to black liberation theology.  Why would he choose to join a church that so bigoted white people like me find so offensive?

    Southern Baptist Sissies

    Ken AshfordLocal Interest, TheatreLeave a Comment

    Hey, there’s a play going on right now here in Winston-Salem that is really important, and really well-done.

    It’s called "Southern Baptist Sissies" and it’s running for one more weekend.  Info here.

    It tells the story of four young men coming to terms (or, for some, not coming to terms) with their homosexuality in the Baptist bible belt.  Each one confronts the conflict between their religion and their orientation, and each one charts a different path.  While one character might embrace his orientation with flamboyance, another lives in denial.  Another lives in fear.  Mark Lee Fuller, the main character, played wonderfully by Bryan Daniel, wrestles through the conflict, and in the end finds the happy medium between his orientation and his God (which is not necessarily the church’s).  (Don’t worry — I’m not giving anything away; how he gets there, and the unfolding of the events that bring him there, are where the meat of the play are at).

    For audience members who are gay and raised in the South, the play has spoken powerfully to them.  But for those like me who are neither, you might find yourself like I did — identifying with the grander theme of finding acceptance while being true to yourself.  There are pearls in there for everyone.

    Not a downer by any means, this play.  Lots of comic relief.  But a great message, and excellent performances.  You’ll find yourself thinking and talking about this play long after you leave the theatre.