The Ashford Zone Blog

Well, my predictions were pretty close.

I predicted a Democratic gain in the House of 24 seats — it’s 28 right now.

In the Senate, I predicted a Dem gain of five seats (meaning that they don’t take the majority).  They have four in the pocket, and have all but "won" in Montana and Virginia.  Those states will probably be subject to a recount, so it’ll be some time before anybody knows if Dems took control of the Senate.

I think the most interesting thing about this election is this: while many offices changed from one party to another, no sitting Democrat lost his/her seat to a Republican.  That includes raises in the House, Senate and governors.  That has NEVER happened before; even in the great Republican victory of 1994, some incumbent Republicans still lost their seats to Democrats. 

What does this mean for Bush?  The New York Times knows:

Everything is different now for President Bush. The era of one-party Republican rule in Washington ended with a crash in yesterday’s midterm elections, putting a proudly unyielding president on notice that the voters want change, especially on the war in Iraq.

Mr. Bush now confronts the first Democratic majority in the House in 12 years and a significantly bigger Democratic caucus in the Senate that were largely elected on the promise to act as a strong check on his administration. Almost any major initiative in his final two years in office will now, like it or not, have to be bipartisan to some degree.

For six years, Mr. Bush has often governed, and almost always campaigned, with his attention focused on his conservative base. But yesterday’s voting showed the limits of those politics, as practiced — and many thought perfected — by Mr. Bush and his chief political adviser, Karl Rove.

Somehow, I don’t think Bush has it in him to act in a bipartisan manner.  He’ll do the tough cowboy swagger, stick to his guns, and essentially ignore the voters’ demand for a new direction.  The LA Times agrees:

White House allies suggest there is little reason to think Bush and the Democrats will work together. Bush has tied himself closely to conservative movement leaders who bitterly disagree with Democrats for their opposition to tax cuts and to privatizing Social Security — two of the administration’s top goals.

"When we want to go up and they want to go down, we want to go right and they want to go left, there’s no compromise," said anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, a close advisor to the White House.

Norquist said the Republicans’ primary goal for the next two years should be making the case for GOP control — not bipartisanship.

Can we stop calling Karl Rove a "genius" now?  This is the biggest defeat for ANY party in any midterm elections.  And he was the GOP "architect".

Chris Bowers bullet points this election:

National Sweep. Democrats take the national majority in the House, Senate, Governors, and State Legislatures. The only thing Republicans have left–Bush–still sports a sub-40% approval rating.

We won bigger than they ever did. Democrats look set to take the House, and with a larger majority than Republicans ever had during their 1994-2006 "revolution." We also won more Senate campaigns in a single cycle, 23-24, than either party has won since at least 1980.

Republicans shut out: No House, Senate, or Governor pickups for Republicans. That breaks every record for futility. No one can ever do worse than they did this year.

Geographic shift. This is the first time in 54 years that the party without a southern majority now has the House majority. Power flows to coasts. Tom Schaller utterly vindicated.

Progressive Caucus Rising. Make no mistake about it–a member of the Progressive Caucus is now speaker of the House. Further, both Progressive caucus members who ran for Senate won easily, Sanders in Vermont and Brown in Ohio. And now, the Progressive Caucus will control half of all House committees.

Blue District Victories. Wave of new conservative Democrats, my ass. Mark down House victories in NH-01, NH-02, NY-24, FL-22, PA-07, PA-08, IA-01, IA-02, CO-07, AZ-08, KY-03, CT-05, CA-11, MN-01, and NY-19. Now someone tell me again how the new wave of Democrats is overwhelmingly conservative with these districts and reps making up the majority of the new class.

Republicans beaten at the top of their game. Republicans broke all of their fundraising and voter contact records this year. They had better maps than ever before. They had a better opportunity to pass whatever legislation they liked than every before. And they were still crushed.

We are just getting started. This is a big step, and much need vindication for our efforts. But it is still just a step. This is no time to start being risk-averse. We must continue to pursue the strategies that brought us here: silent revolution, fifty-state strategy, small donor explosion, progressive movement, we are all in this together.

Lots of recounts and runoffs to go.

Also, AmericaBlog points out that Democrats now have a majority in state legislatures too.

And now, the worst prediction ever, from law "professor" Dean Barnett on 11/4/06:

Lest you think I’m whistling Dixie, we’re already seeing the results of the Republican efforts. Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that early voting and absentee ballot results suggest Republicans are indeed voting in greater numbers than in 2004. (Sorry, no link, but you can trust me, right?)

***

So what’s it all mean? In the tied races, the Republican will win. In the close races, the Republican will win. It adds up to Republicans running the table in the Senate. That’s right – running the table. Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island (whoopee), and Maryland will all send or re-send Republicans to the Senate. But wait, there’s more! Michigan will send Sheriff Michael Bouchard to the Senate. And in Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is in striking distance.

In the House, the same holds true. Republican Joe Negron will take Foley’s seat. New Mexico’s Heather Wilson will return to Congress. So, too, will Connecticut’s Chris Shays. We’ll lose a handful of seats for the individual failures of certain Congressmen (hello, Curt Weldon), but we will retain control of the House.

Okay, I’m officially out on the limb. But I’m comfortable here. The paradigm has shifted. People like Stu Rothenberg are like old generals re-fighting the last war; they’re re-analyzing the last election without realizing that certain key facts on the ground have changed.

This will all be much more obvious on Wednesday in retrospect than it is today.

Ooooo-kay.

UPDATE:  This morning, Dean Barnett says the Kool-Aid doesn’t taste that bad.

Runner-up for the stupidest comentary is Michelle Malkin’s article dated today (although she clearly wrote it yesterday or the day before) about how Democrats are planning to "call into question the results of the midterms".  No, I don’t think so, Michelle.  Always three steps behind everybody else, aren’t you?

INTERESTING:  According to AmericaBlog, some conservatives are saying that conservatives need to move away from the Republican Party.  Sounds like a good idea.  Of course, where does that leave the Republican Party?  Come to think of it, where does that leave conservatives?

GOOD RESULT IN S. DAKOTA:  They rejected the ban on abortions (which was probably unconstitutional anyway).

OTHER GOOD ISSUE RESULTS:  Arizona became the first state to reject a gay marriage ban amendment, and the stem cell research issue (which spawned the Michael J. Fox ad) won in Missouri.

ON EXIT POLLS:  Looks like they’ve got the bugs out.  They were fairly accurate this year.

ELECTION 2006 FUN FACT:  John Hall, leader of the rock group Orleans, won a stunning upset in his race for Congress in upstate New York, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Sue Kelly 51%-49%.  Orleans’ hits include "Still The One" and "Dance With Me".

Apparently, CNN’s invitation to me got lost in the snail mail, so I’ll be liveblogging solo.

Don’t get the impression that I’m sitting here at my computer doing this all evening.  It’s a long night and the results will be trickling in.  So I’m doing this and other things (like reading scripts).

6:00 p.m. – Canary in the coalmines.  Polls in Indiana and Kentucky close at 6pm EST.

While these states don’t necessarily contain important races, they may provide an early prediction as to whether there is a Democratic "wave" or something less.

I’m putting forward the key House races in those states — they can give us a clue about how the rest of the evening will go.  If Dems win a couple of these races, then it’s probably going to be a big Dem night all across the country, because in each of these races, they are up against a Republican incumbent (incumbents are in italics).

IN-8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)

IN-2, Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)

IN-9, Michael Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D)

In other words …

IF Hostettler loses BUT NOT Chocola or Sodrel, things aren’t looking as good for Dems as hoped.
IF Hostettler loses AND Chocola OR Sodrel loses, keep on your toes.
IF Hostettler loses AND Chocola AND Sodrel loses, celebrate.  It’s going to be a Dem sweep.

In Kentucky, the races to watch are:

KY-3: Northrup (R) v. Yarmouth (D)

KY-4: Davis (R) v. Lucas (D)

Same situation here.  If Dems take these seats, it’s going to be a baaaaad night for the GOP.  Especially if Northrup loses.

7:00 p.m. – Votes close in Florida and Virginia.  Virginia is a key state regarding the very tight Senate race of Allen.  Results for that probably won’t be until late.

Still nothing on Indiana/Kentucky races above.

7:05 p.m. – Virginia supports ban against gay marriage.  Guess Virginia is only for straight lovers.

Early returns for key Indiana races show Dem lead, i.e., IN-8, John Hostettler (R) [30%] vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) [70%] with 13% reporting

8:00 p.m. – Nothing yet with heavily contested seats, but the Indiana "canary" races look good for Dems:

IN-8, John Hostettler (R) [38%] vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) [62%] with 32% reporting

IN-2, Chris Chocola (R) [41%] vs. Joe Donnelly (D) [59%] with 26% reporting

IN-9, Michael Sodrel (R) [48%] vs. Baron Hill (D) [48%] with 23% reporting

Virginia Senate is nailbiter:

Allen (R) [49%] v. Webb (D) [50%] with 24% reporting

and, although it was expected, Katherine Harris loses her Senate bid in Florida.  Heh.

So the Senate looks like this….

PARTY	NOT UP	TOTAL	GAIN/LOSS
Republican	40 seats	42	0
Democrat	27 seats	30	0
Independent	0 seats	1	0

and the House looks like this:

PARTY	TOTAL	GAIN/LOSS
Republican	11	0
Democrat	27	1
Independent	0	-1

8:18 p.m.  Hostettler (R) in Indiana loses.  The seat changes party control in the first close "key race".  So far, so good.

Also, Massachusetts overthrew its Republican governor for a Democratic one.

8:30 p.m.  1,000,000 votes counted in VA Senate race; Allan ahead by 200.  That’s right, 200.  Told you it would be close.

8:37 p.m.  New Jersey Senate race: Dem. Menendez retains his seat.  This was one of the "key races", but the result is not terribly surprising.  One thing is for sure: it’s not a Republican wave.

8:53 p.m.  Dem Brown beats incumbent GOP Cherrod in Ohio Senate race.  That’s the first Senate pickup for Dems.  Again, somewhat expected, but it’s still good.

9:02 p.m.  Dem Casey beats incumbent sleazebag uber-conservative GOP Santorum in Pennsylvania.  That’s another Senate pickup for Dems.  Dems need to pick up six to take a majority (and not lose any they already have).

9:11 p.m.  Foxx (R) beats Sharpe (D) in my congressional district.  Liebermann beats Lamont, too.  Ugh on both counts.

9:24 p.m.  Yarmouth (D) beats incumbent Northrup (R) , in Kentucky, for a third Dem pickup in the House.  One of the "canary in the cave" races I highlighted up top.

9:30 p.m.  For what it’s worth, exit polling (which has had questionable reliability in the past few elections) look good for Senate:

Democrats leading:

Virginia (52-47)

Rhode Island (53-46)

Pennsylvania (57-42)

Ohio (57-43)

New Jersey (52-45)

Montana (53-46)

Missouri (50-48)

Maryland (53-46)

Republicans leading:

Tennessee (51-48)

Arizona (50-46)

9:31 p.m.  A few days ago, I was a little worried about Rhose Island.  I didn’t need to.  The Dem Whitehouse stole it from incumbent GOP Chaffee.  That’s THREE of the SIX needed for Dems to take Senate control.  Sadly, the next three are going to be harder to come by.

9:36 p.m.  The second of the three Indiana "canary" races has gone Democrat (see above): Donnelly beats Chicoola.

9:54 p.m.  Virginia Senate, from the official Virginia Election website:

Now that’s close.

10:22 p.m.  Hodes (D) beats Bass (R) in NH, making a fifth House pickup for Dems.

10:35 p.m.  Dems have picked up six eight of a needed 15 seats for the House, and 3 of a needed 6 seats for the Senate.

10:45 p.m.  The first Muslim in America’s history has been elected to Congress.

11:00 p.m.  With more polls closing this hour, NBC is projecting a Democratic takeover of the House.  Again, this is not really surprising.  I said Dems would take 24 seats (out of a needed 15); NBC is projecting 29.  So, there it is.

All that matters now is the Senate.  And Dems need to win 3 out of these four: TN, VA, MO, and MT.

Tennessee looks bad, as I thought it would.

The squeaker is still Virginia.  Here’s what it looks like with %95.83 of precincts reporting:

11:28 p.m.  I’m pleased to see that NH dumped its two GOP Congressmen and replaced them with two Democratic Congressmen (while keeping its Democratic governor).  Also glad to see corrupt Charles Taylor go down here in NC.

11:40 p.m.  Looks like I’ll have to wait until morning…..

I HOPE TO LIVE-BLOG THE ELECTION RETURNS TONIGHT, SO STAY TUNED….

But if you want to follow the returns yourself, the WSJ has a great checklist (PDF format) with tips on what to look for.

I know.  I usually don’t get revved up about midterm elections either.  But this one is important, because we need people in Congress to act as a impediment to the Bush spending-and-war-run-amok government. 

This is a vote for OVERSIGHT.  For ACCOUNTABILITY.  Right now, we have an out-of-control White House and a compliant Congress content to rubberstamp anything — from invasion of privacy to torture.

And if you have the opinion that they’re "all" corrupt liars, then you get the government you deserve.  In fact, that’s why we have the government we have now.

So find your polling place and vote.

Need some more reasons?  How about Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, unprecedented presidential powers, unmatched incompetence, unparalleled corruption, unwarranted eavesdropping, Katrina, Enron, Halliburton, global warming, Cheney’s secret energy task force, record oil company profits, $3 gasoline, FEMA, the Supreme Court, Diebold, Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004, Terri Schiavo, stem cell research, golden parachutes, shrunken pensions, unavailable and expensive health care, habeas corpus, no weapons of mass destruction, sacrificed soldiers and Iraqi civilians, wasted billions, Taliban resurgence, expiration of the assault weapons ban, North Korea, Iran, intelligent design, swift boat hit squads, and on and on.

How about 19 troops killed in November so far?

It takes a few minutes.  You’ll feel better.  You could be doing worse things today, like going hunting with this guy.

HOW’S IT GOING SO FAR:  Hmmmm.  Problems….

— Programming errors and inexperience with electronic voting machines frustrated poll workers in hundreds of precincts early Tuesday, delaying voters in Indiana and Ohio and leaving some in Florida with little choice but use paper ballots instead.

In Cleveland, voters rolled their eyes as election workers fumbled with new touchscreen machines that they couldn’t get to start properly.

We got five machines _ one of them’s got to work," said Willette Scullank, a trouble shooter from the Cuyahoga County, Ohio, elections board.

In Indiana’s Marion County, about 175 of 914 precincts turned to paper because poll workers didn’t know how to run the machines, said Marion County Clerk Doris Ann Sadler. She said it could take most of the day to fix all of the machine-related issues.

Election officials in Delaware County, Ind., planned to seek a court order to extend voting after an apparent computer error prevented voters from casting ballots in 75 precincts there. Delaware County Clerk Karen Wenger said the cards that activate the machines were programmed incorrectly.

Josh Marshall is all over this.  Better than the mainstream media.

BUT WAIT — THERE’S MORE:  MSNBC is reporting that the FBI is investigating GOP voter intimidation in Virginia. Man, how low will these guys go to win?  Here’s how they’re doing it:

HOW BAD ARE VOTING PROBLEMS SO FAR?  The website that tracks voting complaints has crashed.

TBOGG’S PREDICTIONS are the best I’ve read:

Here are some things that will happen:

• No matter how many seats the Democrats take in the House it won’t be enough to keep the Republican echo chamber from pointing out that it most certainly is not a mandate, while all the time whining about the loss of control of the commitees.

• Joe Lieberman is going to win and it will somehow translate as support for the war and civility and common sense…and nobody in the media will point out what a sleazy campaign he ran.

• There will be at least one upset that the polls didn’t predict and that will be held up as evidence that all polls are always wrong…except when they side with your candidate.

• There will be reports of brown people voting which will cause Michelle Malkin to go off the rails. Okay. Farther off the rails.

• Several Republican congressmen with ethical clouds hanging over them will be re-elected only to have to step down later when indictments are handed down.

• Matt Drudge will hype something completely trivial unless Madonna does something to distract him which makes him take his eye off of the ball.

• Within a week, embargoed news about the war will be released and people will find out things in Iraq are even worse then we suspect.

• Win or lose, George Allen’s national aspirations are finished. Fertig! Verfallen! Verlumpt! Verblunget! Verkackt!

• Lots of recounts.

• Michael Steele will lose..but that won’t stop Republicans from touting him to run with McCain in 2008 because they believe that they are just one Negro away from perpetual electoral domination.

• Harold Ford will lose because he is a lousy candidate who is transparently phony.

• If either Marilyn Musgrave or JD Hayworth loses I will be one happy boy.

• You will see one politician elected who does not represent your district or state and you will wonder what the hell is wrong with the people of that district or state. That politician will probably be Tom Tancredo.

• You should probably TIVO Katherine Harris’ concession speech so you can play it later at parties.

• Pelosi fever! Catch it!

• The most banal no-content election blogging will come from Mary Katharine Ham who, while under the delusion that she is teh hot, will provide the kind of political insights one might expect from the assistant night manager down at Wet Seal.

• Your best source for a sense of what is happening will still be at Kos and MyDD. The best post-mortem will come from Digby. As usual.

• Dick Cheney will be spending election day hunting with his daughter who will not get shot in the face because she is quicker on her feet than a 78-year old man. Besides , it’s not lesbian season in South Dakota …yet.

• Blogger will go down throughout the day.

• I will be around, Blogger permiting.

Meanwhile, I present the graphic of the day.  Fox News ran a poll which showed that people favor Democrats over Republicans this election.  But if you look at the screen capture below, they just can’t bring themselves to admit that Dems are more popular the Repubs.

"One Party"?  Which party would that be, Fox?

So Bush is out on the campaign trail, riling up the base (as they say):

Okay.  Maybe not.