Cameraphone didn’t do justice. She was beautiful and not at all tinted green. A terrific day for a terrific couple, and I was glad to witness it.
Well, my predictions were pretty close.
I predicted a Democratic gain in the House of 24 seats — it’s 28 right now.
In the Senate, I predicted a Dem gain of five seats (meaning that they don’t take the majority). They have four in the pocket, and have all but "won" in Montana and Virginia. Those states will probably be subject to a recount, so it’ll be some time before anybody knows if Dems took control of the Senate.
I think the most interesting thing about this election is this: while many offices changed from one party to another, no sitting Democrat lost his/her seat to a Republican. That includes raises in the House, Senate and governors. That has NEVER happened before; even in the great Republican victory of 1994, some incumbent Republicans still lost their seats to Democrats.
What does this mean for Bush? The New York Times knows:
Everything is different now for President Bush. The era of one-party Republican rule in Washington ended with a crash in yesterday’s midterm elections, putting a proudly unyielding president on notice that the voters want change, especially on the war in Iraq.
Mr. Bush now confronts the first Democratic majority in the House in 12 years and a significantly bigger Democratic caucus in the Senate that were largely elected on the promise to act as a strong check on his administration. Almost any major initiative in his final two years in office will now, like it or not, have to be bipartisan to some degree.
For six years, Mr. Bush has often governed, and almost always campaigned, with his attention focused on his conservative base. But yesterday’s voting showed the limits of those politics, as practiced — and many thought perfected — by Mr. Bush and his chief political adviser, Karl Rove.
Somehow, I don’t think Bush has it in him to act in a bipartisan manner. He’ll do the tough cowboy swagger, stick to his guns, and essentially ignore the voters’ demand for a new direction. The LA Times agrees:
White House allies suggest there is little reason to think Bush and the Democrats will work together. Bush has tied himself closely to conservative movement leaders who bitterly disagree with Democrats for their opposition to tax cuts and to privatizing Social Security — two of the administration’s top goals.
"When we want to go up and they want to go down, we want to go right and they want to go left, there’s no compromise," said anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, a close advisor to the White House.
Norquist said the Republicans’ primary goal for the next two years should be making the case for GOP control — not bipartisanship.
Can we stop calling Karl Rove a "genius" now? This is the biggest defeat for ANY party in any midterm elections. And he was the GOP "architect".
Chris Bowers bullet points this election:
National Sweep. Democrats take the national majority in the House, Senate, Governors, and State Legislatures. The only thing Republicans have left–Bush–still sports a sub-40% approval rating. We won bigger than they ever did. Democrats look set to take the House, and with a larger majority than Republicans ever had during their 1994-2006 "revolution." We also won more Senate campaigns in a single cycle, 23-24, than either party has won since at least 1980. Republicans shut out: No House, Senate, or Governor pickups for Republicans. That breaks every record for futility. No one can ever do worse than they did this year. Geographic shift. This is the first time in 54 years that the party without a southern majority now has the House majority. Power flows to coasts. Tom Schaller utterly vindicated. Progressive Caucus Rising. Make no mistake about it–a member of the Progressive Caucus is now speaker of the House. Further, both Progressive caucus members who ran for Senate won easily, Sanders in Vermont and Brown in Ohio. And now, the Progressive Caucus will control half of all House committees. Blue District Victories. Wave of new conservative Democrats, my ass. Mark down House victories in NH-01, NH-02, NY-24, FL-22, PA-07, PA-08, IA-01, IA-02, CO-07, AZ-08, KY-03, CT-05, CA-11, MN-01, and NY-19. Now someone tell me again how the new wave of Democrats is overwhelmingly conservative with these districts and reps making up the majority of the new class.
Republicans beaten at the top of their game. Republicans broke all of their fundraising and voter contact records this year. They had better maps than ever before. They had a better opportunity to pass whatever legislation they liked than every before. And they were still crushed.
We are just getting started. This is a big step, and much need vindication for our efforts. But it is still just a step. This is no time to start being risk-averse. We must continue to pursue the strategies that brought us here: silent revolution, fifty-state strategy, small donor explosion, progressive movement, we are all in this together. Lots of recounts and runoffs to go.
Also, AmericaBlog points out that Democrats now have a majority in state legislatures too.
And now, the worst prediction ever, from law "professor" Dean Barnett on 11/4/06:
Lest you think I’m whistling Dixie, we’re already seeing the results of the Republican efforts. Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that early voting and absentee ballot results suggest Republicans are indeed voting in greater numbers than in 2004. (Sorry, no link, but you can trust me, right?)
***
So what’s it all mean? In the tied races, the Republican will win. In the close races, the Republican will win. It adds up to Republicans running the table in the Senate. That’s right – running the table. Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island (whoopee), and Maryland will all send or re-send Republicans to the Senate. But wait, there’s more! Michigan will send Sheriff Michael Bouchard to the Senate. And in Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is in striking distance.
In the House, the same holds true. Republican Joe Negron will take Foley’s seat. New Mexico’s Heather Wilson will return to Congress. So, too, will Connecticut’s Chris Shays. We’ll lose a handful of seats for the individual failures of certain Congressmen (hello, Curt Weldon), but we will retain control of the House.
Okay, I’m officially out on the limb. But I’m comfortable here. The paradigm has shifted. People like Stu Rothenberg are like old generals re-fighting the last war; they’re re-analyzing the last election without realizing that certain key facts on the ground have changed.
This will all be much more obvious on Wednesday in retrospect than it is today.
Ooooo-kay.
UPDATE: This morning, Dean Barnett says the Kool-Aid doesn’t taste that bad.
Runner-up for the stupidest comentary is Michelle Malkin’s article dated today (although she clearly wrote it yesterday or the day before) about how Democrats are planning to "call into question the results of the midterms". No, I don’t think so, Michelle. Always three steps behind everybody else, aren’t you?
INTERESTING: According to AmericaBlog, some conservatives are saying that conservatives need to move away from the Republican Party. Sounds like a good idea. Of course, where does that leave the Republican Party? Come to think of it, where does that leave conservatives?
GOOD RESULT IN S. DAKOTA: They rejected the ban on abortions (which was probably unconstitutional anyway).
OTHER GOOD ISSUE RESULTS: Arizona became the first state to reject a gay marriage ban amendment, and the stem cell research issue (which spawned the Michael J. Fox ad) won in Missouri.
ON EXIT POLLS: Looks like they’ve got the bugs out. They were fairly accurate this year.
ELECTION 2006 FUN FACT: John Hall, leader of the rock group Orleans, won a stunning upset in his race for Congress in upstate New York, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Sue Kelly 51%-49%. Orleans’ hits include "Still The One" and "Dance With Me".
Apparently, CNN’s invitation to me got lost in the snail mail, so I’ll be liveblogging solo.
Don’t get the impression that I’m sitting here at my computer doing this all evening. It’s a long night and the results will be trickling in. So I’m doing this and other things (like reading scripts).
6:00 p.m. – Canary in the coalmines. Polls in Indiana and Kentucky close at 6pm EST.
While these states don’t necessarily contain important races, they may provide an early prediction as to whether there is a Democratic "wave" or something less.
I’m putting forward the key House races in those states — they can give us a clue about how the rest of the evening will go. If Dems win a couple of these races, then it’s probably going to be a big Dem night all across the country, because in each of these races, they are up against a Republican incumbent (incumbents are in italics).
IN-8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
IN-2, Chris Chocola (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)
IN-9, Michael Sodrel (R) vs. Baron Hill (D)
In other words …
IF Hostettler loses BUT NOT Chocola or Sodrel, things aren’t looking as good for Dems as hoped.
IF Hostettler loses AND Chocola OR Sodrel loses, keep on your toes.
IF Hostettler loses AND Chocola AND Sodrel loses, celebrate. It’s going to be a Dem sweep.
In Kentucky, the races to watch are:
KY-3: Northrup (R) v. Yarmouth (D)
KY-4: Davis (R) v. Lucas (D)
Same situation here. If Dems take these seats, it’s going to be a baaaaad night for the GOP. Especially if Northrup loses.
7:00 p.m. – Votes close in Florida and Virginia. Virginia is a key state regarding the very tight Senate race of Allen. Results for that probably won’t be until late.
Still nothing on Indiana/Kentucky races above.
7:05 p.m. – Virginia supports ban against gay marriage. Guess Virginia is only for straight lovers.
Early returns for key Indiana races show Dem lead, i.e., IN-8, John Hostettler (R) [30%] vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) [70%] with 13% reporting
8:00 p.m. – Nothing yet with heavily contested seats, but the Indiana "canary" races look good for Dems:
IN-8, John Hostettler (R) [38%] vs. Brad Ellsworth (D) [62%] with 32% reporting
IN-2, Chris Chocola (R) [41%] vs. Joe Donnelly (D) [59%] with 26% reporting
IN-9, Michael Sodrel (R) [48%] vs. Baron Hill (D) [48%] with 23% reporting
Virginia Senate is nailbiter:
Allen (R) [49%] v. Webb (D) [50%] with 24% reporting
and, although it was expected, Katherine Harris loses her Senate bid in Florida. Heh.
So the Senate looks like this….
PARTY | NOT UP | TOTAL | GAIN/LOSS | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
40 seats | 42 | 0 | ||
|
27 seats | 30 | 0 | ||
|
0 seats | 1 | 0 |
and the House looks like this:
PARTY | TOTAL | GAIN/LOSS | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
|
11 | 0 | ||
|
27 | 1 | ||
|
0 | -1 |
8:18 p.m. Hostettler (R) in Indiana loses. The seat changes party control in the first close "key race". So far, so good.
Also, Massachusetts overthrew its Republican governor for a Democratic one.
8:30 p.m. 1,000,000 votes counted in VA Senate race; Allan ahead by 200. That’s right, 200. Told you it would be close.
8:37 p.m. New Jersey Senate race: Dem. Menendez retains his seat. This was one of the "key races", but the result is not terribly surprising. One thing is for sure: it’s not a Republican wave.
8:53 p.m. Dem Brown beats incumbent GOP Cherrod in Ohio Senate race. That’s the first Senate pickup for Dems. Again, somewhat expected, but it’s still good.
9:02 p.m. Dem Casey beats incumbent sleazebag uber-conservative GOP Santorum in Pennsylvania. That’s another Senate pickup for Dems. Dems need to pick up six to take a majority (and not lose any they already have).
9:11 p.m. Foxx (R) beats Sharpe (D) in my congressional district. Liebermann beats Lamont, too. Ugh on both counts.
9:24 p.m. Yarmouth (D) beats incumbent Northrup (R) , in Kentucky, for a third Dem pickup in the House. One of the "canary in the cave" races I highlighted up top.
9:30 p.m. For what it’s worth, exit polling (which has had questionable reliability in the past few elections) look good for Senate:
Democrats leading:
Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)
Republicans leading:
Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)
9:31 p.m. A few days ago, I was a little worried about Rhose Island. I didn’t need to. The Dem Whitehouse stole it from incumbent GOP Chaffee. That’s THREE of the SIX needed for Dems to take Senate control. Sadly, the next three are going to be harder to come by.
9:36 p.m. The second of the three Indiana "canary" races has gone Democrat (see above): Donnelly beats Chicoola.
9:54 p.m. Virginia Senate, from the official Virginia Election website:
Candidates | Party | Vote Totals | Percentage |
|
Republican | 973,322 | 49.48% |
|
Democratic | 969,980 | 49.31% |
|
Independent Green | 21,839 | 1.11% |
|
1,855 | 0.09% | |
View Results by District Locality | Total: 1,966,996 |
Now that’s close.
10:22 p.m. Hodes (D) beats Bass (R) in NH, making a fifth House pickup for Dems.
10:35 p.m. Dems have picked up six eight of a needed 15 seats for the House, and 3 of a needed 6 seats for the Senate.
10:45 p.m. The first Muslim in America’s history has been elected to Congress.
11:00 p.m. With more polls closing this hour, NBC is projecting a Democratic takeover of the House. Again, this is not really surprising. I said Dems would take 24 seats (out of a needed 15); NBC is projecting 29. So, there it is.
All that matters now is the Senate. And Dems need to win 3 out of these four: TN, VA, MO, and MT.
Tennessee looks bad, as I thought it would.
The squeaker is still Virginia. Here’s what it looks like with %95.83 of precincts reporting:
Registered Voters: 4,555,683 Total Voting: 2,212,075 Voter Turnout: 48.56 % | |||
Candidates | Party | Vote Totals | Percentage |
|
Republican | 1,098,659 | 49.67% |
|
Democratic | 1,086,778 | 49.13% |
|
Independent Green | 24,441 | 1.10% |
|
2,197 | 0.10% | |
View Results by District Locality | Total: 2,212,075 |
11:28 p.m. I’m pleased to see that NH dumped its two GOP Congressmen and replaced them with two Democratic Congressmen (while keeping its Democratic governor). Also glad to see corrupt Charles Taylor go down here in NC.
11:40 p.m. Looks like I’ll have to wait until morning…..
Britney Spears filed for divorce a few hours ago.
Here’s the actual divorce papers filed in court today (PDF format). She’s citing "irreconcilable differences" — but that’s probably because there’s no box for "He’s a talentless hanger-on".
By the way, it’s working in Oregon:
For more than a decade Oregonians have been successfully voting by mail. Up to three weeks before Election Day, ballots are sent to all registered voters, giving busy families time to research their votes and carefully mark their ballots, which are then either dropped in the mailbox or delivered to secure drop boxes at libraries, county offices and other convenient locations. Trained election officials then match the signature on each ballot against the signature on each voter’s registration card, before processing the vote.
The transparency of Vote by Mail eliminates virtually all fraud, while addressing many traditional voting challenges…
Here’s what I wrote only five days ago, on the subject of squirrels:
I think they’re planning something big.
When will you people listen to me?!? I was right!!!
I HOPE TO LIVE-BLOG THE ELECTION RETURNS TONIGHT, SO STAY TUNED….
But if you want to follow the returns yourself, the WSJ has a great checklist (PDF format) with tips on what to look for.
I know. I usually don’t get revved up about midterm elections either. But this one is important, because we need people in Congress to act as a impediment to the Bush spending-and-war-run-amok government.
This is a vote for OVERSIGHT. For ACCOUNTABILITY. Right now, we have an out-of-control White House and a compliant Congress content to rubberstamp anything — from invasion of privacy to torture.
And if you have the opinion that they’re "all" corrupt liars, then you get the government you deserve. In fact, that’s why we have the government we have now.
So find your polling place and vote.
How about 19 troops killed in November so far?
It takes a few minutes. You’ll feel better. You could be doing worse things today, like going hunting with this guy.
HOW’S IT GOING SO FAR: Hmmmm. Problems….
— Programming errors and inexperience with electronic voting machines frustrated poll workers in hundreds of precincts early Tuesday, delaying voters in Indiana and Ohio and leaving some in Florida with little choice but use paper ballots instead.
In Cleveland, voters rolled their eyes as election workers fumbled with new touchscreen machines that they couldn’t get to start properly.
We got five machines _ one of them’s got to work," said Willette Scullank, a trouble shooter from the Cuyahoga County, Ohio, elections board.
In Indiana’s Marion County, about 175 of 914 precincts turned to paper because poll workers didn’t know how to run the machines, said Marion County Clerk Doris Ann Sadler. She said it could take most of the day to fix all of the machine-related issues.
Election officials in Delaware County, Ind., planned to seek a court order to extend voting after an apparent computer error prevented voters from casting ballots in 75 precincts there. Delaware County Clerk Karen Wenger said the cards that activate the machines were programmed incorrectly.
Josh Marshall is all over this. Better than the mainstream media.
BUT WAIT — THERE’S MORE: MSNBC is reporting that the FBI is investigating GOP voter intimidation in Virginia. Man, how low will these guys go to win? Here’s how they’re doing it:
HOW BAD ARE VOTING PROBLEMS SO FAR? The website that tracks voting complaints has crashed.
TBOGG’S PREDICTIONS are the best I’ve read:
Here are some things that will happen:
- No matter how many seats the Democrats take in the House it won’t be enough to keep the Republican echo chamber from pointing out that it most certainly is not a mandate, while all the time whining about the loss of control of the commitees.
- Joe Lieberman is going to win and it will somehow translate as support for the war and civility and common sense…and nobody in the media will point out what a sleazy campaign he ran.
- There will be at least one upset that the polls didn’t predict and that will be held up as evidence that all polls are always wrong…except when they side with your candidate.
- There will be reports of brown people voting which will cause Michelle Malkin to go off the rails. Okay. Farther off the rails.
- Several Republican congressmen with ethical clouds hanging over them will be re-elected only to have to step down later when indictments are handed down.
- Matt Drudge will hype something completely trivial unless Madonna does something to distract him which makes him take his eye off of the ball.
- Within a week, embargoed news about the war will be released and people will find out things in Iraq are even worse then we suspect.
- Win or lose, George Allen’s national aspirations are finished. Fertig! Verfallen! Verlumpt! Verblunget! Verkackt!
- Lots of recounts.
- Michael Steele will lose..but that won’t stop Republicans from touting him to run with McCain in 2008 because they believe that they are just one Negro away from perpetual electoral domination.
- Harold Ford will lose because he is a lousy candidate who is transparently phony.
- If either Marilyn Musgrave or JD Hayworth loses I will be one happy boy.
- You will see one politician elected who does not represent your district or state and you will wonder what the hell is wrong with the people of that district or state. That politician will probably be Tom Tancredo.
- You should probably TIVO Katherine Harris’ concession speech so you can play it later at parties.
- Pelosi fever! Catch it!
- The most banal no-content election blogging will come from Mary Katharine Ham who, while under the delusion that she is teh hot, will provide the kind of political insights one might expect from the assistant night manager down at Wet Seal.
- Your best source for a sense of what is happening will still be at Kos and MyDD. The best post-mortem will come from Digby. As usual.
- Dick Cheney will be spending election day hunting with his daughter who will not get shot in the face because she is quicker on her feet than a 78-year old man. Besides , it’s not lesbian season in South Dakota …yet.
- Blogger will go down throughout the day.
- I will be around, Blogger permiting.
Meanwhile, I present the graphic of the day. Fox News ran a poll which showed that people favor Democrats over Republicans this election. But if you look at the screen capture below, they just can’t bring themselves to admit that Dems are more popular the Repubs.
"One Party"? Which party would that be, Fox?
Me? Not a big opera fan. I mean, Porgy and Bess, sure. But that’s about as far down that path as I’ve ever cared to go.
But Heather and her fiance Jeff were appearing this weekend in the Greensboro Opera Company’s production of Madama Butterfly at the War Memorial Auditorium. How could I say "no" to that?
It was pretty amazing. The set and the costumes were simply breathtaking. Heather and Jeff, for their parts, didn’t have much to do, since all the focus was (naturally) on the guest artists — including Kaori Sato in the title role [Pictured at right: Heather and Ms. Sato].
Once I was able to pick Heather out (and under that make-up, all them geishas look the same), I couldn’t help but smile at the contrast between the last time I saw Heather on stage. Back then, she was Debbie in her cheerleader costume and getting felt up (by, um, me my character). Now she was a blushing geisha, hiding behind a fan and decorating the set with flowers. If that’s not the textbook definition of "range", I don’t know what is.
So did I become an opera fan? Well, no. Opera moves at a snail’s pace, something that even opera fans acknowledge (a T-shirt for sale in the lobby bore the words "Life is short; opera is long"). The "dialogue" is repetitive; a two minute aria in which the character literally sings about how many stars are in the sky strikes me as "overkill". (On the plus side, you don’t have to read the subtitles very much, since you can be reasonably sure they’re not saying anything new half the time).
And the music? Well, it just doesn’t appeal to me. Never will.
So, no. I’m still no opera buff. But I know I am better for the experience, and it was such a thrill to see Heather and Jeff on that huge stage, playing to a gigantic house, in a truly professional production. Kudos.
It’s a game called "The Stupid Game". Basically, you sit around with your friends and answer the question, "What’s the stupidest thing you’ve ever done?"
A guy in Michigan was playing the game at a party with his pals, and answered: "Shot a guy in the head."
I think playing that game was the second stupidest thing that guy has ever done.
The most recent poll, just released, puts Webb over Allen by an astounding eight points.
That’s a contradiction with a Gallup Poll released this morning, which put Allen up by three.
The difference? The Gallup Poll was conducted Nov. 1-3 (in the wake of the Kerry messup). This new poll was conducted Nov. 3-5.
Looks good.
Senate
50-50, which means Republicans retain majority. We’ll ultimately win Missouri (it’ll take more than a day to get the official results), but it ultimately won’t matter because we’ll lose Virginia. See my prediction map here.
House
Democrat pickup of 24 seats, meaning they’ll take majority control.
RELATED: A good cheat sheet for tomorrow.
And it’s a very welcome crisis, I think – not in the "I hate the religious right, let them suffer" kind of way, but rather, in the "the religious right has gotten away from Jesus" kind of way. They no longer represent Jesus’ teachings, they now represent Ceasar’s.
The religious right has "gone too far," says Hamilton. "They’ve lost their focus on the spirit of Jesus and have separated the world into black and white, when the world is much more gray." He adds: "I can’t see Jesus standing with signs at an anti-gay rally. It’s hard to picture that."
James Dobson, the Family Research Council, Lou Sheldon, and the men at the Concerned Women for America are angry people. They do not talk like the kind of Christians I grew up with on the south side of Chicago in the 1960s. They talk more like Ken Mehlman. And Karl Rove.
Whatever happened to love thy neighbor? Whatever happened to feeding the poor and the hungry? Whatever happened to being good stewards of the earth? All of that flew out the window when the religious right tricked its evangelical flock to focus more on gay marriages than their own. To focus more on unborn children than the world’s one billion children in need who are already alive and in dire need of help.
Evangelicals in America are in crisis, and as much as it must pain them, I believe it’s a good and healthy crisis. Their churches and their leaders have gotten too big, too rich, and too political. They’ve become beholdened to one political party – and to money and riches and power – and now that political party, and that desire for wealth and influence, controls them. And when you start doing the work of politicians, or the almighty dollar, you stop doing the work of the Almighty.
It’s time evangelicals had their own Republican revolution. And it’s not just a revolution to overthrow their overlords in the Republican party, but it’s also a revolution to overthrow their overlords at the largest "family values" organizations and churches who care more about who they hate than who they love.
"Groganism" – n. (1) a strained metaphor or simile, or a series of mixed metaphors, inserted into a political opinion column; (2) misused words and phrases — named after columnist Kaye Grogan
"If the pollsters associated with Zolby, the Associated Press, and other liberal media would conduct polls without allowing themselves to be systematically biased — they would have more than a snowball’s chance of providing more accurate numbers."
Because snowballs, as you know, always provide inaccurate numbers.
"With the Democrats salivating profusely at the mouth, it’s time to show them whose boss."
Tony’s Danza.
"Is it just me or do a lot of you see those lopsided tinseled halos glowing in the dark — when a Democrat is on television trying to tell us how wonderful and pure they are?"
It’s just you, Kaye. You need to adjust the brightness control on your TV.
"I find it amazing when the Democrats fall off of the ‘goody two-shoes’ bandwagon they refuse to resign and play the blame game."
The Goody Two-Shoes Bandwagon sounds like a bluegrass group. You know, the kind that appears at the Appalachian Mountain Clog Jamboree Festival?
"People are tired of the liberal politicians painting over their leopard spots hoping the paint won’t wear off before they lie and smooth talk their way back into office."
Because, you see, liberal politicians are leopards. And leopards, as you know, get a spot for every lie they tell. Or something.
"Let’s give em’ the November surprise they truly deserve on Tuesday, and get those silly "I swallowed the canary" grins off of their faces."
Leopards eat canaries. Bet you didn’t know that.
Chris Bowers is smarter than me, and he’s been watching the Senate polls:
Adding in the new Gallup senate polls, which should nearly round out all new Senate polling for this cycle, here are the latest, and nearly final, Senate polling averages for all of races I have followed this cycle. Big assist, as always, to Pollster.com:
- Vermont: Sanders (D / I) 60.0%–33.6% Tarrent (R). Sanders won the Democratic nomination here, but turned it down. But he will caucus with Democrats anyway. In both of those aspects, he is more of a Democrat than Lieberman.
- Florida: Neslon (D) 58.4%–34.4% Harris (R). At least one high profile member of the evil empire is destined to go down in flames this year.
- Nebraska: Nelson (D) 55.0%–32.8% Ricketts (R). Note: This just never really turned into, well, anything except a blowout. Dems can win in Nebraska. I hope Nelson isn’t the only one who does so in 2006.
- Minnesota: Klobuchar (DFL) 53.8%–36.8% Kennedy (R). Hahahahahahahahahaha. Mark Kennedy: Greatest. Candidate. Ever.
- Michigan: Stabenow (D) 51.4%–39.4% Bouchard (R). Could Stabenow become a Michigan fixture, ala Levin? Sure looks like she is here to stay.
- Ohio: Brown (D) 53.2%–42.2% DeWine (R). Everyone knows that Brown will win here, including Republicans. Whatever people thought about his torture vote, Sherrod Brown will now join his Progressive Caucus colleague, Bernie Sanders, in the Senate. It is nice to see a first immediately coupled with a second. A big, big gain.
- Pennsylvania: Casey (D) 50.8%–40.2% Santorum (R). I fully expect Alex to pay me the $20 we bet on the 6-point Casey over under. Although that does feel wrong, since Alex has probably done more to beat Santorum than I have.
- Washington: Cantwell (D) 52.6%–43.2% McGavick (R). Will Washington Republicans still be around to pose a serious challenge to Cantwell in 2012? Debetable.
- New Jersey: Menendez (D) 48.2%–41.6% Kean (R). Menendez clearly has the edge here, and there just isn’t much to worry about in this state anymore. In case anyone was counting, there have now been twenty-one polls, including internal Republican polls, released to the public since Kean last led here. Disaster averted. Well done, Scott Shields, well done indeed. New Jersey really owes MyDD.
- Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) 47.3%–41.3% Chafee (R). I have only included the last four polls here, leaving out the 10/20 Mason-Dixon because the poll is both old and repetitious. For reasons that generally escaped me, this campaign quickly turned into a Whitehouse rout after being close seemingly forever. Now, once again, it shows a closer campaign. But Whitehouse still clearly has the edge–just look at the polling average.
- Maryland: Cardin (D) 48.4%–44.6% Steele (R). No poll has ever shown Steele ahead in this campaign, ever, at least against Cardin. It is way, way closer than it should have been, and Democrats need to do a much better job supporting African-Americans than they have done while in the opposition. But still, even thought the trend is not favorable, Cardin maintains the edge here. And where will the 7% of undecideds break in a state like Maryland? I have to favor Cardin. Otherwise, I would be betting against the odds.
- Montana: Tester (D) 48.8%–45.6% Burns (R). No poll has shown Burns ahead in this race, ever, at least since it has been a race. The latest Gallup shows Tester more or less cruising. I favor Tester, without any reservations. The trendline is now either static or pro-Tester, not pro Burns. And remember–Tester won his primary by 30% when the polls showed it tied going in.
- Missouri: McCaskill: (D) 48.2%–46.2% Talent (R). I really like McCaskill’s chances here now. That’s seven polls in a row that do not show Talent in front. If McCaskill wins, I’ll spend a week in Missouri as gratitude. I’m not kidding. But she really should have it now.
- Virginia: Webb (D) 47.0%–45.8% Allen (R). This is an eight-poll average that includes all four polls that were completed on October 29th. This should be good enough for Webb to win. It is basically what Kaine led by last year heading into the election.
- Tennessee: Corker (R) 48.6%–45.0% Ford (D). I used the most recent polls from the last five polling firms for this one, because Rasmussen ahs been polling it like crazy. It sure doesn’t look good for Ford, although it doesn’t look as bad as some have made it out to be. I don’t think he will get blown out anymore, but racism was the key here. I don’t care how many Tennessee residents think the racist ads were offensive. They ended up falling for it. If Republicans keep the Senate, they will have done so on pretty much straight-up racism.
- Arizona: Kyl (R) 49.4%–41.4% Pederson (D). I still don’t think e wasted our money here. I like the idea of pushing the field right at the end, even if it doesn’t result in a win. But I now think I was wrong to move this race ahead of Tennessee. Pederson probably should have done better than this.
- Connecticut: Lieberman (CfL) 49.2%–38.2% Lamont (D). It will be a lot closer than this. And Lieberman’s corruption troubles are not over when the election is.
- Nevada: Ensign (R) 54.2%–39.4% (D) Carter. This is a four poll average, not fie. Sadly, it just never came together here. There were indications that it could, but for one reason or another, it didn’t. I’m not really sure why.
And so, fifteen months after my first Senate outlook (parts one and two), that is your nearly final Senate polling picture (there are no polls out of North Dakota, but that doesn’t matter). If everything goes according to the polls, and if Lieberman really does caucus with Democrats, then Democrats will win the Senate 51-49 (or 49-49-2, however you want to call it).
I’m not as optimistic as Bowers. I’ve thought for some time that Tennessee is out of play, and Democrat Ford will lose. That means that Democrats have to pick up ALL of the following: RI, MT, MO, and VA.
Rhode Island, I think, is safe, but only barely. And while the latest polls show a Dem lead in Montana and Missouri and Virginia, they are inside the margin of error — making those three states statistical dead heats.
The real bug-aboo is Virginia. This really is a "tie" going into Tuesday. And I think Allen (ugh!) has the momentum. If Democrats lose any of those four must-haves, it’ll be Virginia.