In its September 2004 issue, Washington Monthly magazine invited 16 smart political observers — a mix of Republicans, Democrats and independents — to write short essays predicting what would happen if George Bush won a second term.
The answers, understandably enough, were all over the lot.
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The one commentator who got it exactly right was Kevin Drum, who runs the magazine’s blog. "What do we have to look forward to if George W. Bush is elected to a second term?" he asked. "One word: scandal."
Worst. President. Ever.
According to this Quinnipiac University poll, Bush is the worst President in the last 61 years:
Strong Democratic sentiment pushes President George W. Bush to the top of the list when American voters pick the worst U.S. President in the last 61 years. Bush is named by 34 percent of voters, followed by Richard Nixon at 17 percent and Bill Clinton at 16 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Leading the list for best President since 1945 is Ronald Reagan with 28 percent, and Clinton with 25 percent. President Bush is ranked worst by 56 percent of Democrats, 35 percent of independent voters and 7 percent of Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Best ranking for Reagan comes from 56 percent of Republicans, 7 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of independent voters. Among American voters 18 – 29 years old, Clinton leads the "best" list with 40 percent.
But this isn’t surprising, right?
Well, Why Not?
Batwoman is a lesbian now. No, really.
Why Datamining Doesn’t Work
Forget the civil rights implications — data mining simply doesn’t work. Bruce Schneier, an expert on data systems and privacy, explains why:
Collecting information about every American’s phone calls is an example of data mining. The basic idea is to collect as much information as possible on everyone, sift through it with massive computers, and uncover terrorist plots. It’s a compelling idea, and convinces many. But it’s wrong. We’re not going to find terrorist plots through systems like this, and we’re going to waste valuable resources chasing down false alarms. To understand why, we have to look at the economics of the system.
Data mining works best when you’re searching for a well-defined profile, a reasonable number of attacks per year, and a low cost of false alarms. Credit-card fraud is one of data mining’s success stories: All credit-card companies mine their transaction databases for data for spending patterns that indicate a stolen card.
Many credit-card thieves share a pattern — purchase expensive luxury goods, purchase things that can be easily fenced, etc. — and data mining systems can minimize the losses in many cases by shutting down the card. In addition, the cost of false alarms is only a phone call to the cardholder asking him to verify a couple of purchases. The cardholders don’t even resent these phone calls — as long as they’re infrequent — so the cost is just a few minutes of operator time.
Terrorist plots are different; there is no well-defined profile and attacks are very rare. This means that data-mining systems won’t uncover any terrorist plots until they are very accurate, and that even very accurate systems will be so flooded with false alarms that they will be useless.
Let’s look at some numbers. We’ll be optimistic — we’ll assume the system has a one in 100 false-positive rate (99 percent accurate), and a one in 1,000 false-negative rate (99.9 percent accurate). Assume 1 trillion possible indicators to sift through: that’s about 10 events — e-mails, phone calls, purchases, Web destinations, whatever — per person in the United States per day. Also assume that 10 of them actually indicate terrorists plotting.
This unrealistically accurate system will generate 1 billion false alarms for every real terrorist plot it uncovers. Every day, the police will have to investigate 27 million potential plots in order to find the one real terrorist plot per month. Clearly ridiculous.
This isn’t anything new. In statistics, it’s called the "base rate fallacy," and it applies in other domains as well. And this is exactly the sort of thing we saw with the National Security Agency (NSA) eavesdropping program: The New York Times reported that the computers spat out thousands of tips per month. Every one of them turned out to be a false alarm, at enormous cost in money and civil liberties.
Finding terrorism plots is not a problem that lends itself to data mining. It’s a needle-in-a-haystack problem, and throwing more hay on the pile doesn’t make that problem any easier. We’d be far better off putting people in charge of investigating potential plots and letting them direct the computers, instead of putting the computers in charge and letting them decide who should be investigated.
By allowing the NSA to eavesdrop on us all, we’re not trading privacy for security. We’re giving up privacy without getting any security in return.
Last Throes Blah Blah Blah
"I think they’re in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency."
The Pentagon reported yesterday that the frequency of insurgent attacks against troops and civilians is at its highest level since American commanders began tracking such figures two years ago, an ominous sign that, despite three years of combat, the US-led coalition forces haven’t significantly weakened the Iraq insurgency.
Natural Disaster Watch
What’s your pleasure?
(1) New Orleans sinking into the ground?
Mona Lisa Speaks
Criminologists can determine what a person’s voice would sound like (within a 90% degree of accuracy) by the shape of their head and face. For example, a wide lower face will mean lower tones and a pointed chin adds mid-pitch tones to the mix.
So the Japanese, using this "science", have figured out what Mona Lisa would sound like if she could talk. Click here (don’t worry about having the Japanese langugae font installed), and click under the picture of Mona Lisa.
Sadly, she is talking in Italian (which makes sense) and the translation is in Japanese, but it’s still interesting.
She sounds like an Italian player for the woman’s rubgy team, if you know what I mean.
Doom Meets Jesus
I thought social conservatives were against violence in video games. Guess not.
Welcome to the video game version of the famous Left Behind series, where young rapture wannabes get to convert or kill heathens from the computer desk. This is a direct bllurb from the game’s website:
Imagine: you are a foot soldier in a paramilitary group whose purpose is to remake America as a Christian theocracy, and establish its worldly vision of the dominion of Christ over all aspects of life. You are issued high-tech military weaponry, and instructed to engage the infidel on the streets of New York City. You are on a mission – both a religious mission and a military mission — to convert or kill Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, gays, and anyone who advocates the separation of church and state – especially moderate, mainstream Christians. Your mission is "to conduct physical and spiritual warfare"; all who resist must be taken out with extreme prejudice. You have never felt so powerful, so driven by a purpose: you are 13 years old. You are playing a real-time strategy video game whose creators are linked to the empire of mega-church pastor Rick Warren, best selling author of The Purpose Driven Life.
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This game immerses children in present-day New York City — 500 square blocks, stretching from Wall Street to Chinatown, Greenwich Village, the United Nations headquarters, and Harlem. The game rewards children for how effectively they role play the killing of those who resist becoming a born again Christian. The game also offers players the opportunity to switch sides and fight for the army of the AntiChrist, releasing cloven-hoofed demons who feast on conservative Christians and their panicked proselytes (who taste a lot like Christian).
Is this paramilitary mission simulator for children anything other than prejudice and bigotry using religion as an organizing tool to get people in a violent frame of mind? The dialogue includes people saying, "Praise the Lord," as they blow infidels away.
Not all Christian conservatives are climbing aboard the Left Behind bandwagon/bloodfest:
Not surprisingly, Left Behind Games’ attempt to make Christianity accessible to youngsters through the use of lethal firepower has its critics. Thompson, for instance, said he severed ties with Tyndale House in a dispute over "Eternal Forces."
"It’s absurd," the video game critic said. "You can be the Christians blowing away the infidels, and if that doesn’t hit your hot button, you can be the Antichrist blowing away all the Christians."
But for those who think Christianity is all about killing people, this is the game for you. My favorite part? The subtle fear-mongering homage to September 11:
All of the ambulances have 911 painted on their roofs. In the reality-based world, most ambulances have a red cross on top. Yet the game designers make prominent use of these 911 ambulances to evoke the tragic events of September 11, 2001. The historical context of 911 is invoked as if to say, We are living in the End Times, and Muslims are among the kinds of infidels whom you should fear, whom you should be prepared to kill for your cause.
Happy gaming!
"Though we walk in flesh, we do not make war in accordance with the flesh, for the weapons of our warfare are not fleshly." (2 Corinthians 10:3-4a).
UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan reports that the nemesis in the Left Behind game is an Anti-Christ figure named Nicole Carpethia, a Romanian who, after the Rapture, becomes head of the United Nations. (No, I’m not making this up). He is conceived through the genetic material of one women and two gay men. So Satan literally is the spawn of gay people.
These people are simply evil haters, pure and simple.
The Religious Right And The Environment
Where does the religious right stand on environmental issues? The answer may surprise you.
Rick Cizik is an ordained minister of the Evangelical Presbyterian church. More importantly, he’s the vice-president of the National Association of Evangelicals, an umbrella organizations for all the smaller evangelical organizations trying to do away with stem cell research, abortions, etc. Cizik is just about as "right" as they come on those issues.
But Cizik is concerned about the environment. His concerns stem from a spiritual belief that God entrusted man to be stewards of this planet, and we’re failing miserably at the task.
But the religious right is giving him hell for it:
The movement’s political leadership, however, sees the [environment] issue as a distraction from its main tactical priorities: getting more conservatives on the supreme court, banning gay marriages and overturning Roe v Wade, the 1973 abortion ruling.
"It is supposed to be counterproductive even to consider this. I guess they do not want to part company with the president. This is nothing more than political assassination. I may lose my job. Twenty-five church leaders asked me not to take a political position on this issue but I am a fighter," he said.
No doubt Jerry "global warming is a myth" Falwell has weighed in on this, too. Wanker.
So where does the religious right stand on the environment? Well, subject to exceptions like Cizik, they care about the unborn and not-yet-living. As to the planet that the living live on, they couldn’t give a damn.
Gay Bashers Going Off The Deep End
His Unholy Shrillness, James Dobson:
Cos as you all very well know marriage is under vicious attack, now I think from the forces of hell itself. Now it’s either going to continue to decline, and as I told you in my office a few minutes ago, I believe with that destruction of marriage will come the decline of western civilization itself.
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We’re really in a crisis point, right now, right now… Where the family is either going to survive or it’s going to fall apart and it will happen in the next few years.
Speaking of shrill gay-bashers, our local Congressman Vernon Robinson is in an election against Democrat Brad Miller. Vernon, for those who don’t know, has a history of insuating that his political opponents are gay. He’s run an infamous ad on the radio that said “If Miller had his way…America would be nothing but one big fiesta for illegal aliens and homosexuals.” Now he’s making gay insinuations about Miller:
…Soon after winning the GOP primary in the 13th District in May, Robinson mailed literature to more than 400,000 households portraying Miller’s voting record and personal life as being out of the mainstream.
Among many other things, the literature calls Miller a “childless, middle-aged personal injury lawyer.”
There’s a reason why Miller is "childless":
“I think that should not be part of what you agree to take on if you want to be involved in politics — that kind of personal attack without any basis,” Miller said.
Miller said his wife of nearly 25 years, Esther Hall, could not bear children because she had endometriosis and then a hysterectomy at age 27 before the couple were married.
What WMD Would Jesus Use?
Apparently, some sort of biochemical weapon.
It looks like some Christian fundamentalists are using homemade weapons of mass destruction to terrorize porn stores. But don’t take my word for it:
WALDO, FL — Evidence teams plan to put on protective gear and seal the room as they search for any clues left behind on a contraption that investigators are calling a "weapon of mass destruction."
Technicians will be looking for fingerprints and any other evidence that may have been left on the device, which was pumping a mix of water and a caustic chemical into a sex shop when neighbors found it Sunday morning, detectives said.
The evidence crew will be breathing the air inside the room, but won’t have any unprotected contact with the plastic jugs, duct tape, and hoses that make up the device.
In Waldo, people have held prayer vigils and protests aimed at an adult bookstore along US 301, trying to keep the "Cafe Risque" from opening its doors on time.
Those efforts have all failed, so investigators say it looks like someone has turned to what they’re calling a clear act of terrorism to keep the store’s owner from opening up shop.
The device, discovered Sunday morning, was made of two gallon-size sports drink jugs connected by hoses. Someone set it on top of the store’s window air conditioning unit.
Detectives say that person then strung one hose from a water spigot on the outside of the building, and pushed another hose into the building through a gap above the air conditioner.
Question: What’s the difference between a radical Christian fundamentalist and a radical Islamic fundamentalist?
Answer: Nothing. Nothing at all.
Last Throes = One Year (At Least)
"I think we may well have some kind of presence there over a period of time. But I think the level of activity that we see today, from a military standpoint, I think will clearly decline. I think they’re in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency." — Dick Cheney, May 30, 2005
Conservative Songs, Part II
The same idiot who came up with the list of the 50 best conservative songs . . . has come up with 50 more best conservative songs. This list is even stupider than the first. It contains (a) songs that nobody heard of; (b) songs that clearly have no political content in it whatsover (e.g., "Yackety Yak"), and (c) songs that are clearly liberal.
I mean, come on. The Byrd’s "Turn, Turn, Turn" — written by Pete Seeger — is a conservative song? Well, to John Miller it is. And why? Because its lyrics "are taken from Ecclesiastes". See if you can figure that one out. As if biblical and liberal can’t possibly occupy the same space? What a doofus.
Corrupt Democrats
Ever since the Abramoff scandal rained crap on many GOPers, the Republican establishment and their colleagues in the press have been looking for the equivalent level of corruption in Democrats. They think they’ve found it.
The headline reads "Reid Accepted Free Boxing Tickets While a Related Bill Was Pending":
Senate Democratic Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) accepted free ringside tickets from the Nevada Athletic Commission to three professional boxing matches while that state agency was trying to influence him on federal regulation of boxing.
Reid took the free seats for Las Vegas fights between 2003 and 2005 as he was pressing legislation to increase government oversight of the sport, including the creation of a federal boxing commission that Nevada’s agency feared might usurp its authority.
Except it’s not that bad. TPM Muckraker explains that "there is an exception for gifts from governmental agencies (like the Nevada Athletic Commission) in the Senate ethics rules. So there is nothing untoward about Reid having accepted the free tickets."
Moreover, Reid voted against the legislation for which the Commission was seeking his support.
Now, to be sure, this has the appearance of impropriety, and perhaps Reid should have been smarter. (There’s no doubt he would not do this in a post-Abramoff world). But it’s hardly comparable.