Bush Losing His Base

Ken AshfordBush & Co.Leave a Comment

This is not another post about Bush’s low approval numbers.  This one has some new information.  From Zogby:

Bush shows weakness among the demographic groups that have comprised the heart of his political base over the past five years, according to Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International.

Zogby: On Bush, his overall approval/disapproval rating is 40%-60%, but he has his lowest support yet from those groups who make up his political base. Among both conservatives and those who consider themselves very conservative, 61% approve of the job he is doing. He gets only 32% of independents, and only 73% among Republicans – his lowest rating yet. Even rural voters give him just 50% approval, and 59% among those who say they are born again spiritually – marking the lowest ratings from both of these demographic groups. And Bush remains low among men, married voters and investors.

As for Iraq, his approval/ disapproval rating stands at 37%-63%; just 12% of Democrats approve of his handling of the war, compared to 88% who disapprove, which are percentages similar to our last poll. Among independents, 26% approve of his war leadership, while 74% do not, which is down slightly from our last survey. Only 68% of Republicans support his handling of the war.

On his management of the war on terror, Bush wins 43% approval, down from 67% at the time of his re-election almost 16 months ago.

Only 68% of Republicans support his handling of the war, and only 73% job approval from Republicans, with only 61% of conservatives and strong conservatives supporting him? That doesn’t bode well for the midterms.

Church And Politics

Ken AshfordElection 2006, Godstuff, RepublicansLeave a Comment

Oy.  They’re are it again.  And right down the street from me:

The North Carolina Republican Party asked its members this week to send their church directories to the party, drawing furious protests from local and national religious leaders.

"Such a request is completely beyond the pale of what is acceptable," said the Rev. Richard Land, head of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention.

During the 2004 presidential race, the Bush-Cheney campaign sent a similar request to Republican activists across the country. It asked churchgoers not only to furnish church directories to the campaign, but also to use their churches as a base for political organizing.

The tactic was roundly condemned by religious leaders across the political spectrum, including conservative evangelical Christians. Ten professors of ethics at major seminaries and universities wrote a letter to President Bush in August 2004 asking him to "repudiate the actions of your re-election campaign," and calling on both parties to "respect the integrity of all houses of worship."

Officials of the Republican National Committee maintained that the tactic did not violate federal tax laws that prohibit churches from endorsing or opposing candidates for office, and they never formally renounced it. But Land said he thought the GOP had backed down.

"I heard nothing further about it, so my assumption was that it stopped, at least at the national level," he said.

Yesterday, the Greensboro News & Record reported that the North Carolina Republican Party was collecting church directories, and it quoted two local pastors as objecting to the practice. The Rev. Richard Byrd Jr. of Cornerstone Baptist Church in Greensboro said anyone who sent in a directory "would be betraying the trust of the membership," and the Rev. Ken Massey of the city’s First Baptist Church said the request was "encroaching on sacred territory."

Chris Mears, the state party’s political director, made the request in a Feb. 15 memo titled "The pew and the ballot box" that was sent by e-mail to "Registered Republicans in North Carolina."

Mears said the "Republican National Committee has completed a study on grass-roots activity that reveals that people who regularly attend church usually vote Republican when they vote."

"In light of this study’s findings, it is imperative that we register, educate and get these potential voters from the pew to the ballot box. To do this we must know who these people are," the memo continued.

"I am requesting that you collect as many church directories as you can and send them to me in an effort to fully register, educate and energize North Carolina’s congregations to vote in the 2006 elections," it said.

It added that the "North Carolina Republican Party holds your church’s directory in strict confidence" and will not use it "to solicit church members for any other reason."

Happily, it looks like the churches are displeased with the GOP efforts to lobby voters from the pulpit.

Promises, Promises

Ken AshfordEducationLeave a Comment

Bush, 1/14/05:

We want to increase the Pell Grants by $100 a year over — $100 per year over the next five years.

Bush, 2/2/05:

[W]e’ll make it easier for Americans to afford a college education, by increasing the size of Pell Grants.

A year later, the president has completely backed away from his promises. The President’s FY ‘07 budget freezes the Pell Grant for the fourth year in a row. The maximum Pell Grant remains $4,050.

After Neoconservatism

Ken AshfordIraq, Republicans, War on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

Poltical types are abuzz about the editorial in yesterday’s NYT Magazine by Francis Fukuyama, spelling the death of — or at least the flaws revealed in — the neoconservative movement.  It’s a heavy read, but interesting.

Ex-neoconservative Andrew Sullivan weighs in:

I have no doubt that Frank Fukuyama’s essay in the New York Times Magazine will prompt a lot of debate. For my part, I think he gets his analysis almost perfectly right. In retrospect, neoconservatives (and I fully include myself) made three huge errors in the last few years. The first was to over-estimate the competence of government, especially in extremely delicate areas like WMD intelligence.

***

The second error was narcissism. America’s power blinded many of us to the resentments that such power must necessarily provoke. Those resentments are often as deep among our global acquaintances as enemies – in fact, may be deeper. Acting without a profound understanding of the dangers to the U.S. of inflaming such resentment is imprudent.

***

The final error was not taking culture seriously enough. Fukuyama is absolutely right to note the discrepancy between neoconservatism’s skepticism toward’s government’s ability to change culture at home and its naivete when it comes to complex, tribal, sectarian and un-Western cultures, like Iraq’s, abroad. We have learned a tough lesson… The correct response to this is not more triumphalism and spin, but a real sense of shame and sorrow that so many have died because of errors made by their superiors, and by intellectuals like me.

Matt Yglesius may have the better view on what the "correct response" to the failure of neoconservatism should be:

I really liked Francis Fukuyama’s new article, "After Neoconservatism" which extends some recent work of his that’s been bouncing around for the past little while. The ending, however, bugged me:

Neoconservatism, whatever its complex roots, has become indelibly associated with concepts like coercive regime change, unilateralism and American hegemony. What is needed now are new ideas, neither neoconservative nor realist, for how America is to relate to the rest of the world — ideas that retain the neoconservative belief in the universality of human rights, but without its illusions about the efficacy of American power and hegemony to bring these ends about.

We do need ideas like that, but these aren’t mysterious hard-to-locate "new" ideas. What he’s describing is just regular old liberal internationalism , a set of ideas that’s fallen into political eclipse during the Bush years, but that are as robust and important as ever, if not more so. That’s where Fukuyama’s argument points, and since he’s surely heard of it, I don’t know why he can’t bring himself to say the words.

Ann Coulter Makes It So

Ken AshfordRight Wing Punditry/IdiocyLeave a Comment

Even though I mentioned the Ann Coulter voting fraud story two days ago, it’s worth bringing up again for a cute addendum.  The story, in a nutshell, is that last week Ann Coulter voted in a Palm County precinct in which she did not live.  The address on her registration wasn’t her home address, but that of her realtor.  (We lawyers call that "voter fraud").

The new wrinkle is this: before she cast her vote in the wrong precinct, she attempted to vote in yet another polling place within the wrong precinct, but was stopped by a poll worker.  Coulter fled.

Wonkette provides the punchline, noting that five years ago during the Election 2000 Florida recount mess (butterfly ballots, etc.), Coulter opined that Palm Beach voters were "stupid" and "feeble-minded".

I guess Coulter had something to prove, which is why she moved there.

We Know

Ken AshfordWar on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

Bush9111m15Bush today:

I knew we were at war when they attacked us. As a matter of fact, I was down here in Florida. It didn’t take long to figure out what was going on.

Well, according to reports, Chief of Staff Andrew Card walked up to Bush and whispered in his ear "America is under attack".

So, Mr. President, I certainly hope it didn’t take long to decipher that deceptively cryptic message.

But "My Pet Goat" was so much more interesting, right?

In Other News, Down Is Up

Ken AshfordBush & Co.Leave a Comment

Whittington is released from the hospital, and apologizes for being shot in the face.  Seriously:

Whittington, wearing a suit and tie, appeared with several bruises on his face and neck. His discharge from the hospital came earlier than expected.

"My family and I are deeply sorry for all that Vice President Cheney and his family have had to go through this week," Whittington said.

Cheney, reports said, was not in a forgiving mood.  "Whittington can go f**k himself," said the Vice President, apparently still seething from the incident last weekend when Whittington selfishly inserted his face in the trajectory of the pellets fired by Cheney at a covey of quail.

Production, Not Truth

Ken AshfordRight Wing and Inept MediaLeave a Comment

Hugh Hewitt responds to criticisms that Cheney gave his post-shooting interview with "Mommy Will Kiss It And Make It Better" Fox News:

He was interviewed by the most respected and experienced anchor in America right now by the people who care about professionalism.

Yeah, Brit Hume’s "did you hit the bird" question was investigative journalistic at its best.

And a one-on-one interview is much more productive than a gaggle of screamers trying to score cheap shot points…

"Productive"?  Is that the metric here?

You know what?  Our criminal justice system would be more productive if we didn’t have cross-examinations, or defendants’ attorneys at all.  Cases would zip by really smoothly and uncontentiously.  But I’m not sure that’s a good thing.

I don’t think people were looking for a productive interview, Hugh.  I think they just wanted the truth.  And you’re more likely to get the truth when exposed to hostility and adversity (isn’t that the whole basis behind your support of turture?). 

It may not be a pretty process, but then, neither is shooting a 78 year old man in the face.

The First Court Ruling On NSA Wiretapping

Ken AshfordWiretapping & SurveillanceLeave a Comment

A small item, perhaps, but the first of many likely court rulings to come (PDF format).

The ACLU and the Electronic Privacy Information Center, among others, sought expedited discovery of DOJ/NSA documents relating to the domestic surveillance program.   They sought several items under the Freedom of Information Act, including documents relating to:

(1) an audit of NSA domestic surveillance activities;

(2) guidance or a "checklist" to help decide whether probable cause exists to monitor an individual’s communications;

(3) communications concerning the use of information obtained through NSA domestic surveillance as the basis for DOJ surveillance applications to the FISC; and

(4) legal memoranda, opinions or statements concerning increased domestic surveillance, including one authored by John C. Yoo shortly after September 11, 2001 discussing the potential for warrantless use of enhanced electronic surveillance techniques.

The Administration didn’t fight the discovery part, so much as the expedited discovery part.  The DOJ argued that, although their response should be expedited, the DOJ should decide what "expedited" means, rather than 20 days requested by EPIC.

It didn’t go the Bush Administration’s way.

The DC District Court shot down all the DOJ arguments:

Under DOJ’s view of the expedited processing provisions of FOIA, the government would have carte blanche to determine the time line for processing expedited requests, with the courts playing no role whatsoever in the process. [Sound familiar? – Ed.]  When pressed at the preliminary injunction hearing as to what delay would be excessive enough such that a court could properly invoke its authority to compel production, counsel for DOJ was unable or unwilling to give an answer. Rather, DOJ’s counsel suggested that the court and the requestor simply must take at face value an agency’s determination that more time is necessary, regardless of the time that has elapsed since the request was filed. DOJ’s position is easily rejected.

As EPIC suggests, DOJ’s reading of the statute would give the agency unchecked power to drag its feet and "pay lip service" to a requester’s "statutory and regulatory entitlement to expedition." . . . . Adopting the government’s position—that an agency has unfettered discretion to determine how long is practicable for processing expedited requests—would require the court to abdicate its "duty" to prevent "unreasonable delays in disclosing non-exempt documents."

The district court judge also gave the DOJ a tiny slap on the hand:

. . . Finally, given the great public and media attention that the government’s warrantless surveillance program has garnered and the recent hearings before the Senate Judiciary committee, the public interest is particularly well-served by the timely release of the requested documents.

DOJ counters that a preliminary injunction will actually harm the public interest. Specifically, DOJ suggests that requiring the agency to finish its processing within twenty days will increase the chances that the agency will inadvertently disclose exempted documents. . . . To be sure, the court does not wish for DOJ to inadvertently release exempted materials.. . . However, "[m]erely raising national security concerns cannot justify unlimited delay." Id. Congress has already weighed the value of prompt disclosure against the risk of mistake by an agency and determined that twenty days is a reasonable time period, absent exceptional circumstances, for an agency to properly process standard FOIA requests. Here, DOJ has not yet made any specific showing that it will not be able to process the documents within the time period sought by EPIC. Vague suggestions that inadvertent release of exempted documents might occur are insufficient to outweigh the very tangible benefits that FOIA seeks to further—government openness and accountability.

"Government openness and accountablilty".  I’m sure that hurts the ears of Bush supporters.

The Abu Ghraib Files

Ken AshfordWar on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

Think Abu Ghraib was just a handful of photographs and a couple of isolated incidents?  Think again:

Salon has obtained files and other electronic documents from an internal Army investigation into the Abu Ghraib prisoner-abuse scandal. The material, which includes more than 1,000 photographs, videos and supporting documents from the Army’s probe, may represent all of the photographic and video evidence that pertains to that investigation.

The DVD containing the material includes a June 6, 2004, CID investigation report written by Special Agent James E. Seigmund. That report includes the following summary of the material included: "A review of all the computer media submitted to this office revealed a total of 1,325 images of suspected detainee abuse, 93 video files of suspected detainee abuse, 660 images of adult pornography, 546 images of suspected dead Iraqi detainees, 29 images of soldiers in simulated sexual acts, 20 images of a soldier with a Swastika drawn between his eyes, 37 images of Military Working dogs being used in abuse of detainees and 125 images of questionable acts."

Run That By Me Again?

Ken AshfordRight Wing Punditry/Idiocy1 Comment

Feminist-obsessed, UNC-Wilmington criminology professor "Dr." Mike Adams, writing at conservative Townhall:

The liberal reaction to Cheney’s accident may vary slightly from liberal to liberal but there is one common characteristic; namely, these liberals feel morally superior because they’ve never shot someone on a hunting trip.

Actually, he’s right.  I do feel somewhat morally superior for, you know, never having shot people in the face.   

Although, in my defense, I don’t think there’s a connection between that sense of moral superiority and my liberal political leanings.

How does Cheney’s accident make you feel, perfesser?  Morally inferior?  Even jealous perhaps?

Of course, the fact that the dancing liberals have never gone hunting doesn’t seem to attenuate these feelings of moral superiority.

Paul Begala notwithstanding, I suppose.  Way to generalize to the point of absurdity and crass deception.

Similar logic would lead a 12-year-old to brag about his clean driving record or a blind man to boast that he’s never downloaded pornography.

Or a man opining with smugness on the subject of abortion rights?

I’ll make you a deal, "doctor".  When you get off your high horse about what women should and shouldn’t be doing with their bodies and conscience, I’ll back off on my insistence that hunters not shoot other members of their hunting party.