Astrology And Palm-Reading Are Sciences Too

Ken AshfordEducation, Godstuff1 Comment

AstrologyaI love this opening paragraph from the New York Times story about the "Intelligent Design" case in Dover, PA:

A leading architect of the intelligent-design movement defended his ideas in a federal courtroom on Tuesday and acknowledged that under his definition of a scientific theory, astrology would fit as neatly as intelligent design.

Yes, professor.  And that’s the problem.  Astrology isn’t a science either.  Expanding the definition of "scientific theory" to include intelligent design is an admission that intelligent design, as it stands now, isn’t science.

Scientific theory requires that hypotheses be tested, so that they can be discovered as "true" or "false".  In other words, any scientific theory must be falsifiable.  "Intelligent design", which attributes the origins of life to a mysterious intelligence (i.e., God — wink, wink) is not provable or disprovable.  The leading witness, Dr.  Michael Bebe, even admits this:

In an attempt to pin Professor Behe down, Mr. Rothschild asked, "What is the mechanism that intelligent design is proposing?"

Mr. Behe said: "It does not propose a mechanism in the sense of a step-by-step description of how these structures arose." He added that "the word ‘mechanism’ can be used broadly" and said the mechanism was "intelligent activity."

Mr. Rothschild concluded, "Sounds pretty tautological, Professor Behe."

Indeed, it is tautological.

And then there’s this gem:

Listening from the front row of the courtroom, a school board members [sic] said he found Professor Behe’s testimony reaffirming. "Doesn’t it sound like he knows what he’s talking about?" said the Rev. Ed Rowand, a board member and church pastor.

Why, Reverand?  Because Behe uses big words that you don’t understand that kinda sorta sound quasi-scientific?

The York Daily Record covers the same story, with snarkiness notably missing from the New York Times:

Dr. Michael Behe, leading intellectual light of the intelligent design movement, faced a dilemma.

In order to call intelligent design a "scientific theory," he had to change the definition of the term. It seemed the definition offered by the National Academy of Science, the largest and most prestigious organization of scientists in the Western world, was inadequate to contain the scope and splendor and just plain gee-willigerness of intelligent design.

So he devised his own definition of theory, expanding upon the definition of those stuck-in-the-21st-century scientists, those scientists who ridicule him and call his "theory" creationism in a cheap suit.

He’d show them. He’d come up with his own definition.

Details aside, his definition was broader and more inclusive of ideas that are "outside the box."

So, as we learned Tuesday, during Day 11 of the Dover Panda Trial, under his definition of a scientific theory, astrology would be a scientific theory.

Astrology?

Who knew that Jacqueline Bigar, syndicated astrology columnist, was on par with Lehigh University biochemist Michael Behe?

Eric Rothschild, attorney for the plaintiffs, asked Behe about whether astrology was science. And Behe, after hemming and hawing and launching into an abbreviated history of astrology and science, said, under his definition, it is. He said he wasn’t a science historian, but the definition of astrology in the dictionary referred to its 15th-century roots, when it was equated with astronomy, which, according to the National Academy of Science, is a science.

So, taking a short logical leap, something Behe would certainly endorse since he does it a lot himself, you could say that intelligent design is on par with 15th-century science.

Sounds about right.

Fred Flintstone’s Wife Is A Real Bitch

Ken AshfordDisastersLeave a Comment

Oh, great — more Bush photo-ops:

Wilma Now Most Intense Atlantic Storm Ever

Hurricane Wilma brought heavy rains to Central America and Mexico on Wednesday as it swirled into the most intense Atlantic storm ever recorded, a Category 5 monster packing 175 mph winds that forecasters warned was "extremely dangerous."

145238w_sm

One Freaky-Looking Dinosaur

Ken AshfordHistory1 Comment

R678905974

It’s called the Caulkicephalus trimicrodon, remains of which were discovered three years ago on a beach on the Isle of Wight, off the south coast of England. The reptile’s name was chosen by University of Portsmouth palaeobiologists in southern England, as Caulkhead is the informal name for natives of the Isle of Wight.

This is an artist’s impression.  It’s kind of a cross between a pelican, a bat, and an alligator.  That’s one seriously fucked-up creature.

Action Alert: Boycott Target

Ken AshfordWomen's IssuesLeave a Comment

Here’s why:

A 26-year-old Missouri woman was refused EC when she handed her prescription to a pharmacist at a Target store in Fenton, MO, on September 30. The woman was told by the pharmacist, “I won’t fill it. It’s my right not to fill it.” She was told that she could go to a local Walgreens instead. The woman said, “When the pharmacist told me she wouldn’t [fill the prescription], I went from disbelief to shock to anger. I guess I’m still pretty angry. It seems unbelievable to me that a medical professional could/would deny access to a federally approved drug and impose their personal beliefs in a professional setting. I am also grateful that I did not need it filled at that time. I don’t know how it would be if I had just been raped or if the condom broke and I was a feeling confusion and panic anyway — and then was denied access and told to go across the street.”

The national headquarters of Target has not responded to three PPFA attempts to clarify its policy on pharmacist refusals.

Bush Polls, State By State

Ken AshfordBush & Co.Leave a Comment

The SUSA poll is out.

50 states of Bush numbers. The highlights?

  • Bush is above 50 percent in only six states — Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Nebraska and Oklahoma. Utah, at 61/36, is the only state above 60 percent. In May, Bush was above 50 percent in  13 states. In September, it was 10 states.

  • 25 states are below 40 percent. Rhode Island, Vermont, and Massachusetts are all under 30 percent. Bush is 29/70 in Rhode Island.

  • Overall, Bush is at 38/59.

    From the SUSA press release:

    In just the past 30 days, Bush’s Net Job Approval has fallen by 10 points or more in:

    Texas                      From Plus 7 to Minus 12, a 19-point drop
    South Carolina      From Minus 4 to Minus 18, a 14-point drop
    Mississippi           From Plus 12 to Zero, a 12-point drop
    Tennessee             From Minus 5 to Minus 17, a 12-point drop
    Michigan               From Minus 21 to Minus 32, a 12-point drop
    Illinois                    From Minus 23 to Minus 34, an 11-point drop
    North Carolina      From Minus 5 to Minus 15, a 10-point drop

    In key Swing States, Bush’s support is eroding among Regular Church Goers. See for example the trendlines in:

    New Mexico
    Missouri
    Wisconsin
    Iowa
    Virginia

  • Wow.  I guess Bush really is a unify-er.

    Support The Troops!

    Ken AshfordWar on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

    The Pentagon has reneged on its offer to pay a $15,000 bonus to members of the National Guard and Army Reserve who agree to extend their enlistments by six years, according to Sen. Patty Murray (D-Seattle).

    The bonuses were offered in January to Active Guard and Reserve and military technician soldiers who were serving overseas. In April, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs ordered the bonuses stopped, Murray said.

    Source

    Terrorism Hysteria

    Ken AshfordRight Wing Punditry/Idiocy, War on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

    CrywolfCathy Young has posted a very sane analysis of the recent phenomenon of prominent right-wing bloggers jonesing for a new domestic terrorist attack.  (Via Is That Legal):

    Michelle Malkin, Powerline, and The Jawa Report flogged the story relentlessly, picking up every sensational detail and railing against the "mainstream media" for ignoring and covering up the story. In a typical passage her October 12 syndicated column, Malkin wrote:

    Nothing to see here. Move along. Islam is a peaceful religion. Stop asking so many damned questions.

    Such is the attitude of the national media, which seems to believe that ’tis better to live in ignorance and indulge in hindsight later than to offend the gods of political correctness.

    On October 13, The Wall Street Journal published an article debunking the alleged terrorist angle and taking the bloggers to the woodshed for spreading hysteria about the story.  Malkin, Powerline, and The Jawa Report claim that the blogs have not made any assertions, merely asked questions. First of all, that’s a common, and rather poor, excuse for irresponsible speculation. If a prominent left-wing blog ran an item titled, "Did George W. Bush know in advance about the 9/11 attacks?", I doubt that Malkin & Co. would consider the question mark to be much of an attenuating circumstance.

    Second, some of the blogs that pushed the "jihadi terrorism in the heartland" angle on the Hinrich story went much further than merely ask questions.

    ***

    There is another question one might ask: When we’re in the middle of the War on Terror, isn’t it better to be too vigilant than not vigilant enough? Where’s the harm in trying to "connect the dots"?

    First of all, reporting unfounded rumors is not "connecting the dots." Equating a Pakistani roommate and an apartment in close proximity to a mosque with Islamic terrorist ties is not "connecting the dots." It’s irresponsible speculation.

    Second, the harm in crying wolf should be pretty obvious.

    Plamegate Update: Indictments Really Close?

    Ken AshfordPlamegateLeave a Comment

    The latest on the investigation from the New York Times:

    The special counsel in the C.I.A. leak case has told associates he has no plans to issue a final report about the results of the investigation, heightening the expectation that he intends to bring indictments, lawyers in the case and law enforcement officials said yesterday.

    ….By signaling that he had no plans to issue the grand jury’s findings in such detail, Mr. Fitzgerald appeared to narrow his options either to indictments or closing his investigation with no public disclosure of his findings, a choice that would set off a political firestorm.

    I have a funny feeling Fitzgerald isn’t about to close up shop.

    More from Larry Johnson (ex-CIA) and his blog No Quarter:

    Had lunch today with a person who has a direct tie to one of the folks facing indictment in the Plame affair. There are 22 files that Fitzgerald is looking at for potential indictment . These include Stephen Hadley, Karl Rove, Lewis Libby, Dick Cheney, and Mary Matalin (there are others of course). Hadley has told friends he expects to be indicted. No wonder folks are nervous at the White House.

    And Rove is clearing his calendar:

    Juggling appearances before a grand jury and conservative admirers didn’t seem to make sense, so presidential adviser Karl Rove has canceled three such outings as he waits to hear whether he or anyone else will be indicted in the leak of a CIA officer’s identity.

    Rove canceled plans to attend two Republican fund-raisers, the national party confirmed Tuesday. And he did not give his scheduled speech to the conservative Hudson Institute think tank on Oct. 11.

    How Am I Doing?

    Ken AshfordBloggingLeave a Comment

    This article list the top ten blogging design "usability issues":

    1. No Author Biographies

    Unless you’re a business blog, you probably don’t need a full-fledged "about us" section the way a corporate site does. That said, the basic rationale for "about us" translates directly into the need for an "about me" page on a weblog: users want to know who they’re dealing with.

    I have this.

    2. No Author Photo

    Even weblogs that provide author bios often omit the author photo. A photo is important for two reasons:

    • It offers a more personable impression of the author. You enhance your credibility by the simple fact that you’re not trying to hide. Also, users relate more easily to somebody they’ve seen.
    • It connects the virtual and physical worlds. People who’ve met you before will recognize your photo, and people who’ve read your site will recognize you when you meet in person (say, at a conference).

    Nope.  No photo of me.  But I don’t think it is that important.

    3. Nondescript Posting Titles

    Sadly, even though weblogs are native to the Web, authors rarely follow the guidelines for writing for the Web in terms of making content scannable. This applies to a posting’s body text, but it’s even more important with headlines. Users must be able to grasp the gist of an article by reading its headline. Avoid cute or humorous headlines that make no sense out of context.

    I fall short on this.  Okay, I’ll work on it.

    4. Links Don’t Say Where They Go

    Many weblog authors seem to think it’s cool to write link anchors like: "some people think" or "there’s more here and here." Remember one of the basics of the Web: Life is too short to click on an unknown. Tell people where they’re going and what they’ll find at the other end of the link.

    I’m pretty good about this.  Next…

    5. Classic Hits are Buried

    Hopefully, you’ll write some pieces with lasting value for readers outside your fan base. Don’t relegate such classics to the archives, where people can only find something if they know you posted it, say, in May 2003.

    Highlight a few evergreens in your navigation system and link directly to them.

    Good idea, but I’m not sure I have any standout posts yet.

    6. The Calendar is the Only Navigation

    A timeline is rarely the best information architecture, yet it’s the default way to navigate weblogs. Most weblog software provides a way to categorize postings so users can easily get a list of all postings on a certain topic. Do use categorization, but avoid the common mistake of tagging a posting with almost all of your categories. Be selective. Decide on a few places where a posting most belongs.

    I do categorization well IMHO.

    7. Irregular Publishing Frequency

    Establishing and meeting user expectations is one of the fundamental principles of Web usability. For a weblog, users must be able to anticipate when and how often updates will occur.

    For most weblogs, daily updates are probably best, but weekly or even monthly updates might work as well, depending on your topic. In either case, pick a publication schedule and stick to it.

    I’m pretty regular now, but I think I need to do less posts in terms of quantity, and more posts with thought and analysis.

    8. Mixing Topics

    If you publish on many different topics, you’re less likely to attract a loyal audience of high-value users. Busy people might visit a blog to read an entry about a topic that interests them. They’re unlikely to return, however, if their target topic appears only sporadically among a massive range of postings on other topics. The only people who read everything are those with too much time on their hands (a low-value demographic).

    Yes, I am a but eclectic.  Then again, Emily says "All you have is politics shit", so maybe not.

    9. Forgetting That You Write for Your Future Boss

    Whenever you post anything to the Internet — whether on a weblog, in a discussion group, or even in an email — think about how it will look to a hiring manager in ten years. Once stuff’s out, it’s archived, cached, and indexed in many services that you might never be aware of.

    Does not apply.

    10. Having a Domain Name Owned by a Weblog Service

    Having a weblog address ending in blogspot.com, typepad.com, etc. will soon be the equivalent of having an @aol.com email address or a Geocities website: the mark of a naïve beginner who shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

    I’m www.kenashford.com, but it forwards to /.  That’s good enough.

    Democratic Ideas – No. 9

    Ken AshfordDemocratsLeave a Comment

    Fiscal Responsibility for a Sound Future.  Democrats know that fiscal mismanagement today only leads to greater problems for our children.  It is our responsibility to address the fiscal irresponsibility of the current Administration by imposing discipline today and Democrats are united to strengthen budgeting rules that require the government to live within its means. 

    Previous:

    Democratic Idea No. 1: Standing With Our Troops

    Democratic Idea No. 2: Targeting The Terrorists More Effectively

    Democratic Idea No. 3: Fulfilling Our Duty to America’s Veterans

    Democratic Idea No. 4: Expanding Economic Opportunity

    Democratic Idea No. 5: Quality Education For All

    Democratic Idea No. 6: Making Health Care More Affordable

    Democratic Idea No. 7: Democracy Begins At Home

    Democratic Idea No. 8: Meeting Our Responsibility To Medicare Beneficiaries

    The Dover Trial

    Ken AshfordEducation, GodstuffLeave a Comment

    Regrettably, I have not been able to follow the Kitzmiller v. Dover trial as closely as I would have liked.  (The case relates to the teaching of "intelligent design" in Pennsylvania public schools).

    But I do recommend this rant by Plutonium Page at The Next Hurrah, discussing the ID defense "expert" who doesn’t know the concept of scientific method from his ass.

    “Welcome To Our World, You Dosey Prick”

    Ken AshfordBush & Co.Leave a Comment

    That’s what Shake’s Sister says about this column written by David Keane, chairman of the American Conservative Union, a guy who has "got his nose all out of joint because conservatives who oppose Miers’ nomination are finding themselves at the business end of the administration’s smear gun".  Keane writes:

    What is most troubling about this whole affair, however, is the way the administration has gone about trying to demonize conservatives who have raised questions about Ms. Miers. It began from day one to attack personally the motives, loyalty and judgment of anyone who questioned the wisdom of the nomination. Since then, the ad hominem attacks on Miers’s conservative critics have been unconscionably heavy-handed and will haunt the president regardless of how the nomination fight turns out.

    SS responds to Keane:

    That’s Tactic #1 for the Bush gang, who have been utilizing it against liberal and moderate dissenters (not to mention their opposition—go ask John McCain) since before they even stepped foot inside the White House. Considering you’ve had no problem with this schoolyard bully strategy all along, I can’t imagine why on earth should anyone else be concerned on your behalf now, just because it’s being used against you. If you had no inclination that at the first sign of stumbling out of lockstep, you’d be treated to the same dishonorable tactics, then you’re not only a hypocrite, but foolish, too.

    Read it all.

    Biological Attack? By Who? Against Whom?

    Ken AshfordHealth Care, War on Terrorism/TortureLeave a Comment

    I blogged about it here, but there was little national attention to it.

    But Salon is picking up on the story.  From Sploid:

    DID WASHINGTON ‘TEST’ BIOWEAPONS ON D.C. WAR PROTESTERS?

    It is the most perplexing "non story" of the American terror era: For the first time ever, a half-dozen of the bioweapons air sensors installed around Washington, D.C., all set off alarms. Over a single 24-hour period, each had collected evidence of airborne quantities of the deadly bacteria francisella tularensis.

    The bacteria is "one of six biological weapons most likely to be used against the United States," according to the federal government. It causes a deadly disease known as tularemia, which responds to treatment with antibiotics but otherwise kills half of its victims … many of whom would assume they had common flu until it was too late.

    ***

    Today, Salon.com revisits the possible bioweapons attack on the nation’s capital. Experts are bewildered by the lack of government concern, and raise a question that should have sent the American news media into a frenzy:

    Another possibility is that somebody was testing U.S. biological weapons defenses. How sensitive are the sensors? How quickly and effectively can the government react?

    "The Department of Homeland Security would have to consider the possibility that it was neither natural nor an attack, but that it was a testing of the system," says Alan Pearson, a former DHS official, who is now the biological and chemical weapons director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, a nonpartisan organization. "Was somebody trying to see what would happen?"

    "Somebody" testing U.S. biological weapons defenses … on Washington’s Mall, on the very day an estimated 300,000 Americans gathered to protest the White House’s endless war. If somebody within the government was running an experiment to "see what would happen," were they satisfied that the news media would all but ignore the event if not directed to cause hysteria?

    The Bangor (Maine) Daily News seems to be the only other publication to revisit what could have been either the biggest biological terror attack in U.S. history or a government "drill" using live bioweapons on citizens who oppose the nation’s wars.

    * * *

    While government health officials say it’s all fine, as nobody got tularemia, people did get sick at the Mall. Some of those who spoke to Salon.com say they were treated with antibiotics for flu-like symptoms, the same medicines that would be used to kill tularemia.

    Things You Didn’t Know

    Ken AshfordScience & TechnologyLeave a Comment

    (1) There was a time traveler from the year 2036, who briefly made appearances in 1975 and 2000-2001.  His psuedonym was John Titor.  In November 2000 through March 2001, he posted on various internet sites, telling about his time travel.  In response to several questions, he explained (among other things) that the U.S. would go to war against Iraq to stop its nuclear weapons.  He also foretold that the WMD threat leading up to the war would be discovered to be "BS" (bullshit).  Which is pretty remarkable since he wrote this before 9/11.  (On the other hand, the U.S. Civil War which was to begin in 2004 never really materialized).

    (2)  Titor also discussed the Year 2038 Problem, which prompted his time travel (to recover obsolete computer parts).  Whatever you may think of Titor, the Year 2038 Problem apparently is real.  At 3:14:08 UTC on January 19, 2038, many computers’ timers will "wrap around" and give a negative number.  This will cause problems similar to those feared with the whole Y2K thing. 

    However, this will only affect 32-bit computers.  Most computers now use 64-bit achitecture.  64-bit computers, by the way, will also experience a similar time problem . . . on Sunday, December 4 . . . in the year 292,277,026,596 A.D. 

    So I think we don’t have to worry about the Year 292,277,026,596 Problem.

    (3)  The earliest twenty dot-com domain names, in order (see here for the first 100):

    Rank 
    Create date  Domain name
    1.  15-Mar-1985 SYMBOLICS.COM
    2.  24-Apr-1985 BBN.COM
    3.  24-May-1985 THINK.COM
    4.  11-Jul-1985 MCC.COM
    5.  30-Sep-1985 DEC.COM
    6.  07-Nov-1985 NORTHROP.COM
    7.  09-Jan-1986 XEROX.COM
    8.  17-Jan-1986 SRI.COM
    9.  03-Mar-1986 HP.COM
    10.  05-Mar-1986 BELLCORE.COM
    11=  19-Mar-1986 IBM.COM
    11=  19-Mar-1986 SUN.COM
    13=  25-Mar-1986 INTEL.COM
    13=  25-Mar-1986 TI.COM
    15.  25-Apr-1986 ATT.COM
    16=  08-May-1986 GMR.COM
    16=  08-May-1986 TEK.COM
    18=  10-Jul-1986 FMC.COM
    18=  10-Jul-1986 UB.COM
    20=  05-Aug-1986 BELL-ATL.COM
    20=  05-Aug-1986 GE.COM
    20=  05-Aug-1986 GREBYN.COM
    20=  05-Aug-1986 ISC.COM
    20=  05-Aug-1986 NSC.COM
    20=  05-Aug-1986 STARGATE.COM