Trump Does Not Deny He Is Under Investigation

Ken AshfordL'Affaire Russe, Polls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

Amid a terrible day involving attempted assassination of Congressmen, one piece of news managed to break through: Trump is under investigation by special counsel Mueller for obstruction of justice.  The obstruction of justice investigation into the president began days after Comey was fired on May 9 with the team actively pursuing potential witnesses inside and outside the government. The White … Read More

Day 118. Hot Mess

Ken AshfordCongress, L'Affaire Russe, Polls, Republicans, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

1/ Rod Rosenstein appointed former FBI Director Bob Mueller to oversee the investigation of Russian interference in election. Mueller will take command of the prosecutors and FBI agents who are working on the far reaching Russia investigation. Trump said that he expects the probe will find no collusion between his 2016 White House campaign and foreign countries, calling the Russia … Read More

Day 117. Wow.

Ken AshfordForeign Affairs, L'Affaire Russe, Polls, Trump & AdministrationLeave a Comment

1/ Trump asked James Comey to shut down the Michael Flynn investigation in a February memo he wrote shortly after meeting with Trump. “I hope you can let this go,” Trump told Comey. The request is the clearest evidence that he tried to directly influence the Justice Department and FBI investigations. Comey kept detailed notes of his meetings with Trump, … Read More

Burning Down The House

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

It should be easy, I hope, to understand my blog’s reliance on Twitter, rather than these more thoughtful posts.  It’s not because we live in a Twitter world where everything is reduced to sound bites (although, we do).  It’s because events move so incredibly fast this political season that there is no time to pause and realize exactly where we … Read More

All Looking Good

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

If you look at all the statistical prognosticators, this election (as of today) is Hillary’s to lose. Nate Silver’s 538 forecast is the most cautious, placing HRC’s chances at 77%.  But it’s a 77% and rising… And here’s 538’s electoral map as of today… I’m actually not as bearish on Ohio as 538 seems to be — I might even … Read More

Trump and Clinton Neck and Neck in NC

Ken AshfordElection 2016, Local Interest, Polls, Sex/Morality/Family ValuesLeave a Comment

Yeah, it is exciting to be in a semi-big swing state.  The candidates keep coming through.  It’s like the New Hampshire primaries in the old days. A new PPP poll on North Carolina came out this morning. Bottom line: Donald Trump 45, Hillary Clinton 43, Gary Johnson 6. Clinton/Trump head to head is tied at 47: That’s okay news since Trump … Read More

62 Days And Counting

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

Summer is over. Labor Day has past.  And now, says conventional wisdom, is when people start paying attention to the election. So where are we? Well, we were all greeted this morning with a bunch of polls, including a 50-state poll from NBC/SurveyMonkey.  Several of them are grabbing headlines, most notably, the CNN/ORC poll (rated A- by 538.com) which has … Read More

Media False Equivalence Watch – Example No. 35442

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

I’m really tired of hearing from the media that “both candidates” are wildly unpopular.  Historically unpopular. I don’t have historical figures of previous presidential candidates for comparison, so I will assume that the assertion is technically accurate. But look at this: Since May 2015, Trump’s unfavorable has never gone BELOW 60% and this favorable has never gone ABOVE 40%. In … Read More

PPP Poll Trolls Trump Voters

Ken AshfordElection 2016, Immigration and Xenophobia, PollsLeave a Comment

A new national PPP poll of likely voters puts Hillary Clinton 5 points ahead of Trump nationally, about on par with other polls of late (especially ones that follow likely, as opposed to registered, voters). But deep down in their survey results, it seemed they planted an interesting question to Trump supports: Well done, PPP. UPDATE:  Speaking of the PPP … Read More

PPP Puts Clinton Up In NC…. Barely

Ken AshfordElection 2016, Local Interest, PollsLeave a Comment

While Hillary Clinton is enjoying a 8-10 lead in Georgia, her lead locally has always been in question.  A new PPP poll just released shows it still very close in North Carolina: PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds Hillary Clinton leading in the state, albeit by a narrow margin, for the first time since March. She’s at 43% to 41% … Read More

Clinton Lead Still Strong Over Weekend

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

Halfway through law week, Donald Trump seemed to have gotten the message that his attacks on the Khans was costing him in the polls.  He tightened up.  He started reading more from a script at rallies.  He endorsed Ryan and McCain and Ayotte. That stopped the poll plunge.  But it doesn’t look like it turned the boat around. Today, Trump … Read More

New Polls Confirm Trump Downfall

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

Fox News has Clinton up nationally over Trump 49-39 among registered voters (+10 points). The internals are also bad for Trump: It’s a draw on “terrorism and national security,” as the candidates receive 47 percent apiece. In May, Trump led Clinton by 12 points on doing a better job on “terrorism” (52-40 percent). Equal numbers of voters say the economy and … Read More

Has The Trump Ship Been Righted? Or Is It Too Late?

Ken AshfordElection 2016, PollsLeave a Comment

Yesterday, it seems that Trump (and everybody else) got past the Khan story, and much of what was discussed was the “intervention” story, wherein GOP leaders (or maybe Trump’s staff) sit down with Trump and get him to pivot to the general election instead of going full-blown tinfoil hat. Intervention or not, Trump held to rallies yesterday and a couple … Read More