Category Archive

Of course there is. It’s only been a few days, and only three polls are out containing JUST data gathered after the end of the Democratic National Convention.  But there are all good. PPP has Clinton +5 (includes Johnson), Morning Consult has Clinton +3; CBS has Clinton +6 (with Johnson added, +5). PPP measured likely voters, the other two measured … Read More

For the first time ever this presidential season, my Polltracker graph (in the right column) shows Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton.  According to the Polltracker poll averages, Trump has 41.1% to Clinton’s 40.2%. A couple of things to note. Most importantly, Trump’s poll numbers have not gone up.  Almost no national poll places Trump above 45%.  It is, and always … Read More

From the latest set of Quinnipiac polls, it seems that the recent attention on Hillary Clinton’s email practices as secretary of state has taken a toll. The Department of Justice has dropped the case, but several of Mrs. Clinton’s statements were disputed by the F.B.I., which said she was “extremely careless” with classified information. Specifically, surveys from Quinnipiac University show the two candidates … Read More

The summary chart is too big to cut-and-paste, so I will just link to it. Basically, it is another Clinton-Trump poll and it shows Clinton leading Trump by 9 points.  But then it compares this presidential race to the polling in June of 2012 and June of 2008 to see where the demographics of the electorate have changed. Here are … Read More

Very very very much not. In mid-May, Trump was underwater by barely more than 20 points—a disaster for most politicians, but an improvement for Trump. Now the percent of people with unfavorable views of Trump is on the rise again, and by a lot, if a new Washington Post/ABC News poll is a harbinger: It finds that “70 percent of Americans have an … Read More

Hillary Clinton’s advantage over Donald Trump grew over the course of the last week, according to the results of the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released today.  The survey was conducted in the same week that Clinton clinched the Democratic nomination and Trump continued his criticism of federal Judge Gonzalo Curiel, Clinton leads Trump 49 percent to 42 percent. Clinton narrowed … Read More

Pundits say that America is mad with the government this election cycle, and that informs how they will vote. The Cook Political Report examined this theory and found that Americans are no more “angry at government” now than they were before: In fact, according to data from the Pew Research Center, the percent of Americans who say they are “angry … Read More

I don’t think any Democrat is complacent about the general election.  After all, most Democrats — pundits, politicians, and laymen alike — are still surprised by Trump’s nomination.  But most seem to believe that a Hillary Clinton victory will be the likely outcome. Do the first round of polls bear that up?  Not as well as I had hoped. A … Read More

Women.  Turns out THEY are the Donald’s Achilles Heel. Trump’s campaign was rocked last week by the fallout from his suggestion that women be punished for getting abortions if the procedure is banned.  Trump dialed that back in Trump style — basically he did a 360 on it, saying OF COURSE women should not be punished, and that his views on … Read More

“Fascism” is a word that rarely appears in modern political discourse, and when it does, it usually is in an Internet flame.  It’s intended to be incendiary — it is hyperbole. But not this time.  When I say that Donald Trump — GOP presidential candidate and likely nominee for the Republicans — flirted with fascism this weekend, I mean it. … Read More