Not the economy. Not jobs. UPDATE: Speaking of Gallup polls, GOP approval is now the lowest it has been in decades:
Biggest Scandal Ever!!
PPP poll: … there's no doubt about how mad Republicans are about Benghazi. 41% say they consider this to be the biggest political scandal in American history to only 43% who disagree with that sentiment. Only 10% of Democrats and 20% of independents share that feeling. Republicans think by a 74/19 margin than Benghazi is a worse political scandal than … Read More
Republicans Are Revolting
Buried deep in a just-released depressing poll from Fairly Ridiculous University, lies this question/result: That's right. 44% – a plurality — of Republicans think we need an armed revolution in the next few years. You know, to protect our liberties. I would like to know what liberties they think are being taken away. Of course, that result explains the reasoning … Read More
Backlash Against Gun Vote
Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who championed a bipartisan compromise on gun reforms, has seen his approval rating reach new heights. On the other, Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) has seen her support back home drop sharply, so much so that she is "underwater" (disapproval is higher than approval). Yesterday, PPP came out with a poll showing that gun vote hurt others too: After … Read More
Pundit Quote Of The Week
WaPo columnist, Jennifer Rubin: It took less than 4 1/2 years of the Obama presidency for President George W. Bush to mount his comeback. While doing absolutely nothing on his own behalf (he’s been the most silent ex-president in my lifetime), his approval is up to 47 percent according to The Post/ABC poll. That’s up 14 points from his final poll in office. … Read More
Good News: Despite The Nuts, Most Common Sense Gun Control Solutions Poll Well
Pew Research released today: While the issue of gun control remains divisive, there are clear areas of agreement when it comes to a number of gun policy proposals. Fully 85% of Americans favor making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks, with comparable support from Republicans, Democrats and independents. Similarly, 80% support laws to prevent mentally ill … Read More
Guns In School and NRA: How They Lookin’ To Us?
Not good: PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas. The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability … Read More
Congress: Better Than Ebola, Worse Than Cockroaches and Nickelback
From PPP: Our newest national poll finds that Congress only has a 9% favorability rating with 85% of voters viewing it in a negative light. We've seen poll after poll after poll over the last year talking about how unpopular Congress is but really, what's the difference between an 11% or a 9% or a 7% favorability rating? So we … Read More
Fiscal Cliff Notes #2
I'm not writing about this much, in part because I think much of what is going on is theater. Lots of posturing on both sides. I will note, however, that Republicans are playing a losing game. Most polls show that they are not trusted to avoid the fiscal cliff, and if we do go over it, the GOP will be … Read More
Good Pollster, Bad Pollster
Fordham University has published a ranking of the most accurate pollsters of the 2012 in terms of national trends, and (both) top spots were held by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, the North Carolina-based firm. Director of Fordham's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy, Dr. Costas Panagopoulos, based the study on pre-election polling and compared it against the results from election day. "For … Read More
Nate Silver Wins
I urge everyone to read this Politico piece from last week, slamming Nate Silver ("Nate Silver: One-term celebrity?") Now, look at this: That is Nate's map of his final predictions. Just like the real thing. The creepiest thing about Nate’s prediction is that the only state that he didn’t claim better than 79% certainty about was Florida, which he called … Read More
Nate’s Last Call
Nate Silver's polling models are giving President Obama a 91.4% chance of winning, with 314 electoral votes compared to Mitt Romney's 223.
Presidential Predictors Predict Obama
This is as of last night — the predictive models of Nate Silver (top left), Andrew Tanenbaum (top right), Sam Wang (bottom left) and Josh Putnam (bottom right). The average of the models now gives Obama 312 electoral votes.
Ohio Looking Good
The state of Ohio is perhaps the most critical swing state this election, and the latest polls are strong evidence that President Obama's got it locked up. Via Nate Silver on Twitter: 7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5. #notthatcomplicated — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) October 31, … Read More
Romney-mentum? Nope.
Yes, Romney clearly did have things going for him for the two weeks following the first debate. But that's all gone now… Nate Silver looks at the daily tracking polls for today, and it's Obama's gain: Silver writes: Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one … Read More