Category Archive

Good polling news: PPP's post debate poll in the swing states, conducted on behalf of Americans United for Change, finds that Barack Obama was the big winner in tonight's face off. 53% of those surveyed in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin think Obama was the winner to 42% who pick Romney. … Read More

Don't worry about national polls. Early this week, Gallup came out with a national polls showing that Romney was over Obama by 51 to 45. You would think that is badm but you needed to look at the poll crosstabs from the previous day (when it was 50-46) and compare: Romney's entire advantage in the poll comes from a massive lead in the … Read More

Polls that show Obama gaining: ABC, IBD/TIPP, RAND, Rasmussen (swing states), Reuters/Ipsos, Polls that show Romney gaining: Gallup, PPP, Rasmussen (all states) Polls that can be methodologically dissembled if someone doesn't like the results: All of them. National CompositesHuffington Post: Obama +0.5TPM: Romney +1.1RCP: Romney +0.4 So what does all this tell you? That regardless the toplines, no poll is … Read More

The president, speaking during a radio show interview about his debate performance: Towards the end of the interview, Obama sought to assure listeners that he was still confident, alluding to an internet meme that features him: “As some of these emails that go around with my picture on them say, I can’t quote the entire thing, but ‘I got this.’” He was … Read More

Obama's sub-par performance is taking its toll in the polls.  Most national polls still show Obama still ahead, but the margin is much smaller now. But as we all know, national polls mean nothing.  It's the state polls.  Especially those of the swing states.  And there, it is tightening as well.  Over at HuffPo, their model still estimates Obama's lead at … Read More

I don't know what to say about the new meme in conservative circles, i.e., that all the polls are intentionally skewed for Obama because of liberal media bias.  It's a pretty silly claim when you think about it.  Some of these pollsters have been around a while — like Gallup, for example.  Getting it right is their stock-in-trade, and it … Read More

Nate Silver has an epic post today about late September polls from past years and how well they predict the eventual winner of a presidential race. Here are the highlights: Obama is currently up by 3.7%. No candidate in the past 50 years has lost a lead that big. No candidate with more than 47% of the vote in late September has everlost. Obama … Read More

The real thing to note about the recent NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia isn't that Obama has a lead — it's the number of undecided. In Virginia, Obama leads 49 to 44, but only 5 are undecided. Furthermore, only 2% say they might switch before election day. That means even if Romney swept all the undecided vote, he'd still only have … Read More

Well, the daily tracking polls of Gallup and Rassmusson (as well as other polls) indicate there was a definite Obama bounce from the convention last week, despite blah economic numbers coming out last Friday. There are two state polls that I wanted to note: one from Ohio, and one from North Carolina (released a few minutes ago). Both are from … Read More

The Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on Bain Capital, as well as his commitment to not releasing his tax records. And it is working. Three national polls in the past two days show a significant Obama lead.  I already mentioned one: the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama up by 7 points.  The next day, CNN had another poll also showing Obama … Read More

I'm not really big on national presidential polls this early in the race.  They will swing wildly following the conventions, Romney's VP pick, and the debates. Still, it's kind of interesting to see where each candidate stands before we get to all those watershed moments. And things look good for Obama today – A new poll of registered voters from Reuters/Ipsos out today has … Read More

Nearly 65% think Barack Obama would be better suited than Mitt Romney to handle an alien invasion. – Source